2:00PM Water Cooler 11/22/2023 | naked capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Bird Song of the Day

Asian House-Martin, Nantou County, Taiwan. “Calls from several individuals flying around a colony located in a tunnel along a steep cliff.” Busy little creatures!

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Constitutional Order

“After the Civil War, Robert E. Lee Couldn’t Run for President, but Trump Can?” [Garrett Epps, Washington Monthly (WB)]. “All five sections of the Fourteenth Amendment can be seen as what must have seemed like a last, desperate attempt to retain power in the hands of the Union and prevent a reborn Confederacy from ruling for the next century. Section Three addressed the prospects of Lee and all those who served the Confederacy. The old Southern leadership, which had enjoyed federal office until 1861, then fought the United States until 1865, was not coming back; it was barred from state or federal office…. Gentle reader, can you seriously imagine that our 19th-century ratifier—an informed, loyal American who had just lived through a brutal war that took more than 600,000 lives for the sole reason that Southern whites would not accept that Abraham Lincoln won the 1860 election—would have understood Section 3 to mean that a traitor couldn’t be a Senator, or a Representative, or a governor, or a state legislator, or for that matter a dog-catcher—but that Robert E. Frickin’ Lee could turn his coat one more time, swear he really would support the Constitution this time, and waltz into the White House? I cannot. This is what philosophers call “self-stultifying”— so self-contradictory that its very utterance undermines the idea of meaning itself.” • This is an excellent article with which I disagree on the main points (and I also don’t like the lack of links at key turning points; for example, that “Democratic newspapers speculated that their party’s strongest presidential nominee in 1868 would be former Confederate General Robert E. Lee” is a bare assertion). First, Epps urges that the phrase “officer of the United States” in Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment applies to Presidents. I disagree (and some legal scholars agree). Madison writes, in Federalist 68, of the President: “It was desirable that the sense of the people should operate in the choice of the person to whom so important a trust was to be confided.” It makes no sense to me that a President, elected by the whole nation, is in the same category (“officer of the United States”) as an appointed official, who is not. Second, in regard to the finding of fact in the Colorado decision: It gives me the creeps that we might rely on decision from a non-elected State District Court judge to determine that Trump is an “insurrectionist.” Insurrection is a crime, and if the Biden adminstration’s Justice Department didn’t charge and convict him, and no special prosecutor did, it’s most likely because neither thought they could make the charge stick. So which ought to be controlling?

Biden Administration

“Biden marks ‘146th birthday’ with flaming cake” [The Hill]. “President Biden marked his 81st birthday with a tongue-in-cheek reference to his age in a fiery Instagram post Monday. ‘Turns out on your 146th birthday, you run out of space for candles!’ Biden joked in the post, showing off his cake decorated with dozens of lit candles huddled together along the perimeter. The crowded flames formed a blazing ring atop the celebratory dessert, drawing awe in the post’s comments section.” Going for the youth on Insta. Love the Götterdämmerung look:

2024

Less than a year to go!

“Biden Campaign Starts Reminding America Why It Dumped Trump In The First Place” [HuffPo]. “The Biden campaign’s new approach aims to make sure that Trump’s racist or autocratic or otherwise off-putting comments and proposals get widespread attention quickly. One example is Trump’s echo of language used by Adolf Hitler in Nazi Germany. On Sept. 27, a pro-Trump website posted an interview in which he stated that illegal immigration was ‘poisoning the blood of our country’ ― phrasing Hitler used. It did not get much attention in the mainstream media until a week later, and the Biden campaign did little to highlight it. Contrast that to this past week, when after Trump in a Veterans Day campaign speech described people who oppose him as ‘vermin’ ― again a term Hitler used to vilify and scapegoat Jews and other minority groups ― the reaction was swift and coordinated. On Monday, the first workday after the long weekend, both the White House and Biden’s campaign released statements excoriating Trump. By midweek, Trump’s use of both ‘vermin’ and ‘poisoning the blood’ had made it into Biden’s stump speech, in which Trump plays a featured role.” • I’ll set aside the issue that literally no Trump quote can be trusted unless it’s checked against a transcript; this has been true of all mainstream press coverage of Trump since the beginning. I’ll also set aside the aghastitude at “vermin,” while “deplorables” is jake with the angels. It seems to me that Democrats, at some deep level, habitually equate speech and action (or symbols and things). This makes sense to the PMC, since speech out of turn can have irreparable professional consequences (and little Madison will have to give up her violin lessons). I’m not sure that this equation holds outside the Democrat bubble. In any case, the rapidity and efficiency with which Democrats seize on verbal infelicities is in marked contrast to their lethargic and bungled messaging on anything of material benefit to voters.

“Colbert makes Grim Reaper joke about Biden for his birthday: ‘Standing silently in my doorway’” [FOX]. “Late-night host Stephen Colbert made a surprising Grim Reaper joke about Joe Biden on Monday as he marked the president’s 81st birthday. Reacting to reports that some close to Biden think he shouldn’t be put in ‘Bubble Wrap’ but rather make jokes about his age and not shy away from the issue, the CBS host donned a pair of aviator sunglasses. ‘Hey everybody, knock, knock?’ Colbert as Biden asked. ‘Who’s there?’ the ‘Late Show’ crowd replied. ‘Not sure, but he’s been standing silently in my doorway for a while now. He’s a pale fellow, big cloak, long sharp knife on a pole,’ Colbert said, as some in the crowd sounded surprised. ‘Smiling right at me, great set of chompers. Look into his eye sockets and see a little movie about all the fun stuff I did when I was a kid.’” • Was Corn Pop there? Anyhow, this framing is misplaced, at least to me. I don’t care that Biden’s old; plenty of elders are still sharp as tacks (both my parents, for example). I do care that Biden could be losing his mind, and I worry what happens when juicing him up doesn’t work. Why can’t our TV comics say that? Still, interesting? An opening gun? (I remember the opening gun on DeSantis; an assault on his wife’s fashion sense. After that, open season!)

“In California’s ‘Little Arabia’, residents feel betrayed by Biden’s support for Israel” [France24]. “In California’s “Little Arabia”, the first officially designated Arab-American enclave in the US, many residents with familes and roots in the West Bank and Gaza feel betrayed by Washington’s unconditional support for Israel. Opinion polls show President Joe Biden’s approval ratings have plummeted in Arab-American communities since Israel launched its military offensive in Gaza following the October 7 Hamas attack.” • Not just Michigan, then.

“Exhausted Biden Finally Concedes 2020 Election To Trump” [The Onion]. “[ Biden:] ‘To the new U.S. president Donald Trump, I say congratulations—they’re your problem now. It’s time for this old man to put this whole election behind him and take some time for himself. You’ll see me again, though definitely not as much—I’ll be moving on to a role where fewer people scream at me and I can get some goddamn peace and quiet.’ At press time, Biden had reportedly called President Trump himself to tell him how after this he was going to sleep for, like, ever.” • Interestingly parallel to Colbert’s message.

[puts head in hands]

Donald Trump is running for president bragging about how he “killed Roe v. Wade.”

Let’s be clear: The only reason a fundamental right has been stripped away from the American people for the first time in American history is because of Trump.

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) November 21, 2023

No, it’s because Democrats never codified Roe into law, as they promised to do, and never did. Then of course there are all those Federalist Society judges the Democrats never went to the mat on, but passed right up through the court system until they made it to the Supreme Court.

“The ‘Anti-Defeat’ Candidate” (interview) [Dean Phillips, The Atlantic]. “Phillips, 54, is a figure of uncommonly big plans and weighty burdens, especially given his relatively modest station (he has represented Minnesota’s Third Congressional District since 2019). He seems sincere about what he’s doing, especially compared with the two-faced default of so many elected Democrats who tout Biden’s reelection in public while privately pining for some other candidate, like Gretchen Whitmer, the Rock, or whomever they want instead. In this sense, Phillips’s gambit is noble, even necessary. It can also be lonely and awkward to watch up close.” And: “‘Is Kamala Harris prepared to step in if something happened to Biden?’ I asked Phillips. ‘I think that Americans have made the decision that she’s not,’ he said. I replied that I was interested in the decision of one specific American, Dean Phillips.

‘That is not my opinion,’ Phillips clarified. He said that every interaction he’s had with the vice president has been ‘thoughtful’ and that ‘I’ve enjoyed them.’ That said …’ Phillips paused, and I braced for the vibe shift. ‘I hear from others who know her a lot better than I do that many think she’s not well positioned,’ he said of Harris. ‘She is not well prepared, doesn’t have the right disposition and the right competencies to execute that office.’ Phillips also noted that Harris’s approval numbers are even worse than Biden’s: ‘It’s pretty clear that she’s not somebody people have faith in.’ But again, Phillips is not one of those people: ‘From my personal experiences, I’ve not seen those deficiencies.’” • Tap-dancing, and not especially graceful, either.

“Dean Phillips responds to blowback from Harris remarks” [The Hill]. “‘I recall those words being shared with me and saying that’s what people have been saying,’ Phillips said. ‘… I am defending the vice president because I think she’s a good person; I think she is well-prepared, but I’m telling you the country has a different opinion, and that’s exactly what I said there.’ He added that he believes President Biden is also a ‘good person’ but that the country does not want him as the next president. Pressed on whether he is implying he doesn’t think Harris should be a successor to Biden, Phillips responded, ‘No, you know what I’m saying actually and what I’ve said directly to many and would actually say to her if she was right next to me — run. The water [is] warm, we live in democracy.’” • The water is warm?! Is this some sort of secret code?

“Senate Dems stake their 2024 hopes on last 2 red-state incumbents” [Politico]. “Democrats’ hopes of clinging to the Senate next fall now rest almost entirely on their party’s most endangered species: red-state incumbents seeking reelection. After Joe Manchin’s retirement announcement, the party is down to just two of them on the ballot next year — Montana’s Jon Tester and Ohio’s Sherrod Brown. Tester and Brown will need to defy their states’ ideological leanings by persuading a sizable number of ticket-splitters to vote for them. It’s an ominous reality for Democrats, who are simultaneously confronting lackluster swing-state polling for President Joe Biden. Democrats are investing in campaigns in Florida and Texas in a bid to oust Rick Scott and Ted Cruz, respectively, but Democratic leaders know the easiest path to retaining the Senate majority runs through victories for Tester, Brown and Biden, whose victory is necessary to break a 50-50 tie. Next fall will bring ‘real opportunities’ to go on offense, said Sen. Gary Peters (Mich.), the chair of Senate Democrats’ campaign arm. ‘But I’m very confident we’re going to be at 50 by holding all of our incumbents and we win the White House. Having battle-hardened candidates is a real strength.’…. The two races combined could approach $500 million in total spending between the GOP primaries and the general election, said one party strategist granted anonymity to candidly assess the map…. Tester and Brown have built-in advantages aside from incumbency and winning track records. They are fundraising juggernauts at this point: each has raised more than $14 million this year, and both are strategically breaking with the Biden administration on foreign policy and border policy as their campaigns heat up.” • Of course, if the Republicans nominate a whack job in either state, that might help these two.

“Democrats Held Off the GOP in Legislative Races This Year, Again Bucking Expectations” [Bolts]. “Louisiana’s runoffs on Saturday brought the 2023 legislative elections to a virtual close, settling the final composition of all eight chambers that were renewing their entire membership this fall. That’s in addition to special elections held throughout this year. The final result: Democrats won five additional legislative seats this year, Bolts calculated in its second annual review of all legislative elections. That’s a small change, since there were more than 600 seats in play this year. But it goes against the expectation that the party that holds the White House faces trouble in such races. In 2021, the first off-year with President Biden in the White House, the GOP gained 18 new seats out of the roughly 450 seats that were in play, according to Bolts’ calculations. (Three special elections will still be held in December, but none is expected to be competitive.) It also mirrors Republicans’ disappointment in 2022, a midterm cycle that saw Democrats defy recent history by flipping four legislative chambers without losing any. They pulled off a similar feat this year: Democrats held off GOP hopes of securing new chambers in New Jersey and Virginia and instead gained one themselves in Virginia, the fifth legislative chamber they’ve flipped in two years. Still, these aggregate results mask regional differences, with Democratic candidates continuing their descent in much of the South. That too is an echo of 2022, when the GOP’s poor night was somewhat masked by their surge in a few red states like West Virginia, where Democrats still haven’t hit rock bottom; this year, Republicans surged in Louisiana and Mississippi.”

Democrats en Déshabillé

Patient readers, it seems that people are actually reading the back-dated post! But I have not updated it, and there are many updates. So I will have to do that. –lambert

I have moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Party (“the Democrat Party is a rotting corpse that can’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated post, to which I will periodically add material, summarizing the addition here in a “live” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It turns out that defining the Democrat Party is, in fact, a hard problem. I do think the paragraph that follows is on point all the way back to 2016, if not before:

The Democrat Party is the political expression of the class power of PMC, their base (lucidly explained by Thomas Frank in Listen, Liberal!). It follows that the Democrat Party is as “unreformable” as the PMC is unreformable; if the Democrat Party did not exist, the PMC would have to invent it. If the Democrat Party fails to govern, that’s because the PMC lacks the capability to govern. (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” of course.) Second, all the working parts of the Party reinforce each other. Leave aside characterizing the relationships between elements of the Party (ka-ching, but not entirely) those elements comprise a network — a Flex Net? An iron octagon? — of funders, vendors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with assets in the press and the intelligence community.

Note, of course, that the class power of the PMC both expresses and is limited by other classes; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial model’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to mind. Suck up, kick down.

Mothership Strategies is at it again:

This is so great. The DLCC is implying — no, openly saying — that the Democrat Party is a membership organization. You can even get a party card. But they’re not. Has anybody actually gotten one of these cards? I’d love to feature it.

“Airbnb taps ex-Biden chief of staff Ron Klain as top lawyer” [Reuters]. “Former Biden White House chief of staff Ron Klain will join Airbnb as its top lawyer, the company said on Monday…. Cities around the United States and globally are more closely regulating short-term rentals, including by requiring hosts to obtain licenses and pay registration fee, or by limiting rentals in business districts.” • AirBnB must be in trouble. That’s a damn shame.

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Many voters say Congress is broken. Could proportional representation fix it?” [NPR]. “One potential alternative to the current winner-take-all approach for House races is known as proportional representation. Instead of the single candidate with the most votes winning a House district’s seat, a proportional representation system would elect multiple representatives in each district, distributing seats in the legislature roughly in proportion to the votes each party receives. Supporters say proportional representation could help temper the rise of political extremism, eliminate the threat of gerrymandering and ensure the fair representation of people of color, as well as voters who are outnumbered in reliably ‘red’ or ‘blue’ parts of the country. This story is part of a series of reports on alternatives to how U.S. voters cast ballots and elect their political leaders. Click here for more NPR voting stories. And last year, a group of more than 200 political scientists, legal scholars and historians across the U.S. said the time for Congress to change is now.”

#COVID19

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

“Something Awful”

Lambert here: I’m getting the feeling that the “Something Awful” might be a sawtooth pattern — variant after variant — that averages out to a permanently high plateau. Lots of exceptionally nasty sequelae, most likely deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we might add brain damage, including personality changes therefrom.

Elite Maleficence

CDC openly suppresses masks. Not even a gentle suggestion:

Just for the record, the flu is airborne–

“Minimal transmission in an influenza A (H3N2) human challenge-transmission model within a controlled exposure environment” [PLOS Pathogens]. From the Discussion: “To our knowledge, this is the largest human influenza challenge-transmission study undertaken to date. We applied measures to control and standardise environmental conditions and ventilation rates within and between exposure events, to emulate as far as possible indoor winter conditions when respiratory virus spread is maximal. We particularly sought to maintain low humidity conditions which have been associated with enhanced transmission and increased virus viability, together with a low ventilation rate to maximize recipient exposure to airborne virus. The near absence of transmission to control Recipients suggests contact and large droplet spray did not contribute substantially to transmission under the conditions used in these [exposure events (EEs)]. The significantly lower than expected [secondary attack rate (SAR)] in this study compared with the proof-of-concept study, which had much lower ventilation rates, suggests aerosols as an important mode of influenza virus transmission in this model.” • Droplet dogmatists are such losers. Coverage of the study–

“Influenza might be spread simply by breathing, study finds” [NBC]. “What the new study suggests is that people may need to do more than just wash their hands and keep a distance from sneezing and coughing people to avoid catching the flu. ‘We found that flu cases contaminated the air around them with infectious virus just by breathing, without coughing or sneezing,’ said Dr. Donald Milton, who’s been studying flu transmission at the University of Maryland’s school of public health. ‘Even if you are not coughing, you can still infect other people,’ he added. ;Many people shedding virus into the air are shedding real, infectious virus.’::

“The Flu May Linger in the Air, Just Like the Coronavirus” [New York Times]. “Last week, the World Health Organization modified its stance on coronavirus transmission, acknowledging that the virus may also hop from person to person by lingering in the air, trapped inside tiny aerosols that can traverse the length of room. A wealth of evidence has shown the same is true of flu viruses, which also attack cells in the human airway. Researchers have even isolated infectious flu viruses from exhaled breath.”

“Popular Google Searches About the Flu, Answered by Public Health Experts” [Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health]. “Is flu airborne? CR: Flu can spread through the air, which means being near someone who has influenza can put you at risk. JS: It also means wearing a mask can be helpful.”

Lambert here: Lots of new results yesterday, most up, starting with wastewater. (The one I worry about the most is ER visits, since I think that data is hard to game, and who wants to go to the ER, anyhow?) I think it’s time to send the relatives those clippings you saved on brain damage (also, of course, the 2022 clippings: here, here. And the 2020 one). And break out the Corsi-Rosenthal boxes at the family gathering!

Case Data

NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater data, November 20:

Lambert here: Cases up, just in time for Thanksgiving (and tinfoil hat time: This is the, er, inflection point CDC was trying to conceal when they gave the contract to Verily and didn’t ensure a seamless transition).

Regional data:

Everywhere!

Variants

NOT UPDATED From CDC, November 11:

Lambert here: Top of the leaderboard: HV.1, EG.5 a strong second, with FL.1.15.1 and XBB.1.1.16.6 trailing. No BA.2.86 (although that has showed up in CDC’s airport testing). Still a Bouillabaisse…

From CDC, October 28:

Lambert here: I sure hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart depends, don’t all move on the green fields and pastures new (or have their access to facilities cut by administrators of ill intent).

CDC: “As of May 11, genomic surveillance data will be reported biweekly, based on the availability of positive test specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring every two weeks. 2. occurring twice a week; semiweekly.” Looks like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to worry about. Time will tell.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, November 18:

Lambert here: Slight increases in some age groups, conforming to wastewater data. Only a week’s lag, so this may be our best current nationwide, current indicator until Verily gets its house in order (and working class-centric, since I would doubt the upper crust goes to the ER).

NOTE “Charts and data provided by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the past year, using a rolling 52-week period.” So not the entire pandemic, FFS (the implicit message here being that Covid is “just like the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week period” is appropriate for both_{MR SUBLIMINAL I hate these people so much}. Notice also that this chart shows, at least for its time period, that Covid is not seasonal, even though CDC is trying to get us to believe that it is, presumably so they can piggyback on the existing institutional apparatus for injections.

Hospitalization

Bellwether New York City, data as of November 22:

Definitely up. New York state as a whole looks more like a spike. (I hate this metric because the lag makes it deceptive, although the hospital-centric public health establishment loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the only metrics that matter [snort]).

NOT UPDATED Here’s a different CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, but with a date, at least. November 11:

Lambert here: “Maps, charts, and data provided by CDC, updates weekly for the previous MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Department Visits, Test Positivity) and weekly the following Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So where the heck is the update, CDC?

Positivity

NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, November 20:

0.5%. Decline arrested. (It would be interesting to survey this population generally; these are people who, despite a tsunami of official propaganda and enormous peer pressure, went and got tested anyhow.)

NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, November 11:

Lambert here: Increase (with backward revision; guess they thought it was over). I know this is just Ohio, but the Cleveland Clinic is good*, and we’re starved for data, so…. NOTE * Even if hospital infection control is trying to kill patients by eliminating universal masking with N95s.

NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s data, October 30:

Down, albeit in the rear view mirror. And here are the variants for travelers, October 30:

BA.2.86 really rolling now among travelers, so it has to be getting loose. Variant mavens are worried:

No sign of JN.1 (a more evasive subvariant of BA.2.86), at least in this chart.

Deaths

Total: 1,182,999 – 1,182,945 = 54 (54 * 365 = 19,710 deaths per year, today’s YouGenicist™ number for “living with” Covid (quite a bit higher than the minimizers would like, though they can talk themselves into anything. If the YouGenicist™ metric keeps chugging along like this, I may just have to decide this is what the powers-that-be consider “mission accomplished” for this particular tranche of death and disease). 

Excess Deaths

NOT UPDATED The Economist, November 18:

Lambert here: Based on a machine-learning model.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell by 24,000 to 209,000 on the week ending November 18th, dropping sharply from the three-month high in the previous week and well below market expectations of 225,000. In the meantime, continuing claims fell by 22,000 to 1,840,000 in the previous week, retreating from the two-year high hit in the previous report. The result indicates that the slowdown in the labor market has not fully materialized yet, allowing the Federal Reserve the flexibility to maintain interest rates at restrictive levels.”

Manufacturing: “United States Durable Goods Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for manufactured durable goods in the United States plummeted by 5.4% month-over-month in October 2023, reversing a 4.0% surge seen in September and significantly surpassing market expectations of a 3.1% drop. It was the second-largest fall in durable goods orders since April 2020, mainly driven by reduced demand for transportation equipment.”

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 67 Greed (previous close: 63 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 56 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Nov 22 at 1:58:06 PM ET.

The Gallery

Our timeline:

News of the Wired

“Best Practices for Time Travelers” [Idle Words]. “Tensors, closed time-like curves, manifolds, shmanifolds – it’s a lot to keep straight. After all, you just push the button, why should you know how the thing works? But if you want to be believed, you’ll have to sound convincing about the underlying physics. Here again, Titor is your model. Instead of spouting voodoo about flux capacitors, tachyons, or the fifth dimension, he grounds himself firmly in general relativity with talk about electrically charged microsingularities (mini-black holes). Don’t forget that quantum gravity isn’t understood until… well, you know when. In the early 21st century, time travel through black holes is still an open question…. So don’t go all crazy on the details, or you’re bound to misremember something. “Black holes” is plenty, you don’t get hung up on weights and measures.” • Readers? Anyone with experience, please speak up!

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WB writes: “This is the week for the Sumac to sing…”

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