By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Generous readers, thank you once again for making the 2024 Water Cooler fundraiser such a complete success. Now I can relax [ha ha]. –lambert
Bird Song of the Day
Blue Nuthatch, Fraser’s Hill, Pahang, Malaysia. “Foraging or eating.” Sensible birds!
In Case You Might Miss…
(1) Boeing horror continues
(2) Bogus paper assaults Long Covid.
(3) Berlin Techno
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Biden Administration
“The White House knew Schumer’s Israel speech was coming. Israel will notice that” [Semafor]. “The White House reviewed, but didn’t block, Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer’s sharp attack on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Thursday. While the administration has not embraced his explosive call for new elections, the lack of apparent pushback signaled a growing split between the two countries’ leaderships….. Both Netanyahu’s political allies and opponents pushed back hard against the comments coming out of Washington, charging they were designed to tip the political scales in Israel. ‘Regardless of our political opinion, we strongly oppose external political intervention in Israel’s internal affairs,’ former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett wrote on X. “We are an independent nation, not a banana republic.’” • Lol, “external political intervention.” What we really ought to do is set up an IAPAC (Israeli America Public Affairs Committee) in Israel, and lavishly pump campaign contributions to Israeli politicians through it, including especially the
real estate speculatorsgoat sacrificers. Cheaper than sending in a wet team, and far less dangerous.“Schumer stabs Israel in the back with disgraceful remarks” [Norm Coleman, The Hill]. • Ah, the dolchstosslegende takes on new life…
2024
Less than a year to go!
Here are Fridays’ RealClearPolitics polling numbers. I have highlighted the two aspects I think are most important:
(1) Five-way polling. The Trump-Biden binary is not informative, given Kennedy’s strength (and, who knows, West and Stein). Unfortunately, most of the maps and charts reflect that binary. (2) Swing (“battleground”) states numbers, since those drive the electoral college, not the popular vote (which, again, most of the maps and charts reflect).
Trump (R): “Fulton County judge says district attorney Fani Willis can continue to prosecute the 2020 election interference case” [CNN]. “Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis can stay on and prosecute the Georgia 2020 election interference racketeering case against former President Donald Trump and 14 of his co-defendants, Judge Scott McAfee ruled Friday, but only if she removes the special prosecutor with whom she engaged in a romantic relationship.” • I would imagine this will create calendar issues, as a new prosecutor must be selected and brought up to speed (although of course Willis and her BFF could run away together).
Trump (R): “READ: Georgia judge slams prosecutors in Trump case for ‘odor of mendacity’” [Axios]. “McAfee, in his highly anticipated decision, did not shy away from writing with flair. Neither side provided sufficient evidence for the judge to determine when exactly the relationship started, he said. ‘However, an odor of mendacity remains,’ he wrote.” • I guess Willis won’t be going to work for Neera Tanden anytime soon?
Trump (R): “Fani Willis Survives, But Donald Trump Will Be Celebrating” [Newsweek]. “Willis has already said that the trial may continue past presidential inauguration day in January 2025. If the case was transferred to another prosecutor, it would almost certainly delay the case past inauguration…. Stephen Gillers, a law professor at New York University, told Newsweek that Trump’s ultimate goal is to delay the case until after the election. ‘It does appear that, inch by inch, the criminal justice system is making any 2024 trial less and less likely,’ he said. ‘Trump’s lawyers just have to get to Labor Day and then nothing will happen until 2025, if then.” • So much for all that earned media! But I’m sure Trump can come up with an equally lucrative and effective strategy than the one Democrats handed to him.
Trump (R): “State Of Georgia V. Donald John Trump, Rudolph William Louis Giuliani, Mark Randall Meadows, Jeffrey Bossert Clark, Robert David Cheeley, Michael A. Roman, David James Shafer, Harrison William Prescott Floyd, and Cathleen Alston Latham” (PDF) [Fulton County Superior Court]. Here is the remedy:
I have outlined in red the portion that, in my reading, indicates that Judge McAfee doesn’t think much of Trump’s legal team (and there are other examples).
Trump (R): “‘Unusual Provision’ in Chubb’s Donald Trump Bond Draws Scrutiny” [Newsweek (Furzy Mouse)]. “”There is an unusual provision in the bond that would give Chubb 60 days from the date final judgment is entered in Carroll’s favor (if she wins on appeal) to make payment to her,” [former U.S. Attorney and long-time Trump critic Joyce] Vance wrote. If Trump loses his appeal and doesn’t pay the money, ‘Chubb must tender the full amount. They can collect from Trump in turn, but doing that would be their problem,’ Vance wrote. ‘This is good news for E. Jean Carroll because the bond guarantees that the judgment will be paid if she prevails on appeal.’ Vance also noted that the judge gave Carroll’s lawyers until Monday morning to file objections to the bond. He’ll hold a hearing at 3 p.m. that same day if they do.” • I wonder if the New York State legislators who passed what amounted to a bill of attainder that allowed Carroll to sue will get a cut as, in all fairness, they should.
Biden (D): “Hunter Biden, partners aided Chinese bid to corner nuclear energy market with U.S. tech, memos show” [Just the News]. “While his father was still vice president, Hunter Biden and his business partners tried unsuccessfully to help a Chinese energy firm acquire one of the United States’ premier nuclear technology companies in a secret attempt to ‘control’ the global market, according to new evidence turned over to Congress in President Joe Biden’s impeachment inquiry. The evidence, which includes a detailed strategy memo , shows Hunter Biden was directly involved in emails and correspondence on the project in 2016 and that the goal was to exploit the future first son’s access to power and his family reputation to make Washington and Beijing comfortable with a potentially controversial deal and then to shield the acquisition of Westinghouse by China CEFC Energy behind intermediaries…. Hunter Biden ‘had an interesting last name that would probably get people in the door,’ [One of Hunter Biden’s former business partners, Rob Walker] explained to lawmakers.” • Speculating more than a little here, but we simple Americans tend to think of corruption as “cash in a brown paper bag” (as indeed did once happen with CalPERS) and a quid pro quo. I don’t think that’s how it works in China. Here is a small story from Naomi Wu (who as NuKit reallly is doing great work manufacturing Covid testing and prevention equipment). She starts off talking about tech bros from the West, so for context:
And so Wu accomodates Sheet Metal Lady Boss (love it!). But now add one ingredient: Suppose, while Wu and SMBL were having dimsum, a high official in the local party apparatus just happened to stop by to greet SMBL. Would that swing the deal SMBL’s way? I think it would. You can look at all this as friendship, of course. But you could also look at it as corruption. Now, that’s exactly what happens when Hunter — dear Hunter! — is making a deal with Ukrainians or Chinese or whoever and The Big Guy just happens to drop by, grinning and slapping shoulders, as one does. I think the Republicans really need to avoid getting lost in the weeds here, and trying to do kneejerkitude and aghastology on ZOMG China!! ZOMG nukes!!!! Keep it simple. Focus on the relationships (“brand building”) and construct timelines that show show cash flows into the various tributaries of the mighty money river of the Biden clan.
Biden (D): “Hunter Biden witness may be self-serving but his China cover-up info is accurate” [New York Post]. “Fugitive Gal Luft, the ‘missing witness’ from the Biden corruption investigation, has made fresh allegations about the president’s family’s China connections in an exclusive 50-page expose obtained by The Post. The former Israel Defense Force lieutenant colonel, who worked with the same Chinese energy company, CEFC, that paid Hunter and Jim Biden more than $8 million, skipped bail in Cyprus last year after being charged with attempted gun-running, acting as a foreign agent for China and lying to the FBI.” Busy guy! More: “While his attacks on federal prosecutors clearly are self-serving, his disclosures so far have proven accurate, and his ongoing conversations with former employees of CEFC while on the run have produced new information about how influential Americans on both sides of the aisle in Washington were recruited to serve China’s imperialist Belt and Road Initiative…. Hunter Biden, ‘the true sheikh of Washington,’ as one of his partners dubbed him, wasn’t the only VIP cultivated by CEFC’s enigmatic billionaire chairman Ye Jianming, who sprinkled expensive diamonds around Washington like candy. An energy expert with deep intelligence ties in Washington and Beijing, Luft claims, ‘three former national security advisors, a former CIA Director, a former NSA Director, a former Chairman of the Fed, former cabinet secretaries, former senators, retired generals, CEOs [acted as] CEFC’s enablers in Washington [and] were willing to go to great lengths to enrich themselves by parking under Ye’s gown.’ Chairman Ye, Hunter’s most lucrative Chinese business partner, has not been seen since he was arrested for ‘economic crimes’ in China in early 2018, on the direct orders of President Xi Jinping, according to Chinese news agency Caixin.” • Well well!
Biden (D): “Trump vs. Biden Polls: No State of the Union Bounce for Joe” [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. “It is hard to exaggerate the psychological boost Democrats derived from Joe Biden’s 2024 State of the Union Address…. But while the State of the Union did wonders for Democratic optimism, there’s simply not much evidence that it changed many minds about Joe Biden’s job performance or flipped many votes from Republican to Democrat…. Even if Biden didn’t lift assessments of his job performance in this one speech, did he at least damage perceptions of Trump? There’s not much publicly available evidence of that either. Yes, a post–State of the Union poll from ABC/Ipsos gave Trump a terrible 29 percent to 59 percent favorable/unfavorable ratio, but it also gave Biden a nearly-as-terrible 33 percent to 54 percent ratio…. The State of the Union address, despite Biden’s combo platter of self-promotion and attacks on “my predecessor,” also had no palpable impact on general-election polling. In head-to-head matchups with Trump, the RCP averages showed Trump leading Biden by 1.8 percent on March 7 and by 2.4 percent today.” • Kilgore’s view is bipartisan–
Biden (D): “Biden’s State of the Union speech answered one big question” [FOX]. “n Thursday night’s State of the Union address, President Joe Biden spoke principally to Democrats and answered one question and one question only: is he, at this point, able to be a candidate for reelection? His answer, as evidenced by his fiery, combative, and extremely partisan speech, is yes, he is, but only for those Democratic and Democratic-leaning independents who are inclined to vote for the incumbent president. …. For Democrats, let’s not underestimate how important this speech was. According to recent polling, 36% of Democrats think their party should nominate someone other than Joe Biden. And for that group, this address provided at least some reassurance that he can deliver a fire and brimstone speech.” • Hence the resounding echos in the Democrat echo chamber (and nothing outside it).
Biden (D): Alert reader SG has this to say on Bidenonmics:
“The unemployed got $300 in enhanced weekly benefits.”
Gee, I didn’t. In fact, I didn’t get anything at all because my erstwhile employer lied and said that I quit when they laid me off. I couldn’t file an appeal using the website (because it didn’t work) and I couldn’t do it in person because the unemployment office was closed due to COVID. Feature, not bug, I guess.
Caltrops wherever you look.
“Independent candidates spoil the odds in narrow rematch of Trump, Biden” [Washington Times]. “Independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West are poised to upend a historic repeat faceoff between President Biden and former President Donald Trump…. Mr. Kennedy, 70, has collected enough signatures to appear on the ballot in New Hampshire, Hawaii, Utah and Nevada, a key swing state Mr. Biden won narrowly in 2020. An aligned super PAC, American Values 2024, said it has the requisite signatures to put Mr. Kennedy on the ballots in the battleground states of Georgia, Arizona, Michigan and South Carolina…. Mr. West is on the ballot in Oregon, Utah and South Carolina, according to his campaign, and is working on ballot access in additional swing states, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona. Political analysts and pollsters say the independent candidates’ impact on the election is hard to measure but could decide the outcome if the race is as close as the one in 2020.”
#COVID19
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Media
Let’s start here:
“Time to stop using term ‘long Covid’ as symptoms are no worse than those after flu, study finds” [Guardian]. Just in time for Long Covid Awareness Day! “Long Covid may be no different from other post-viral syndromes such as those experienced after flu, according to new research from Queensland Health. The lead author of the study, the state’s chief health officer Dr John Gerrard, said it was ‘time to stop using terms like ‘long Covid” because they imply there is something unique about the longer-term symptoms associated with the virus, and in some cases create hypervigilance.’” And: “Gerrard will present [the study] next month at the European Congress of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases in Barcelona.” • This observational study seems, at this point, not to exist online. I can’t find a preprint. Could people possible be quoting from the Conference brochure? So, after a single news cycle, we get this–
“On Long COVID Awareness Day, remember this: Long COVID is fake!” [Editorial Board, New York Post]. “The study shows the disease is an utter phantasm, part of the endless litany of socially chic ailments beloved by the anxious and affluent. Think of all the self-diagnosed mental illness and neuro disorders on TikTok.” • And we get this–
“Queensland’s Chief Health Officer Dr John Gerrard says it’s time to stop using the term ‘long Covid’ – here’s why” [Daily Mail]. “‘Long Covid’ is a ‘sinister’ term that causes ‘unnecessary fear’ and should be abolished, according to Queensland’s Chief Health Officer [Dr John Gerrard].” • Can’t we leave public relations to professionals?
How it’s done:
Seems like Queensland is a lot like Alberta, where John Conleys still roam the earth. Here is a debunking thread:
Starting a debunking thread. On this Queensland “LongCovid is just like LongFlu” study.
So far this is what we have. https://t.co/MyGcnYRWVU
— Lazarus Long (@LazarusLong13) March 15, 2024
Gerrard’s methodology:
“Why it might be too early to stop saying long-COVID” [ABC Australia]. “According to a press release about the conference and research, the research from Queensland Health discussed above is ‘being prepared for submission to a medical journal [which?] ahead of the conference in April 2024.’” • So we don’t really have a paper at all. We only have quotes about a paper. What a good faith effort, to be sure!
TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (Biobot) A bit “modified rapture” (“could be worse”) but we our falling curve has now reached the level of previous Trump peaks. Not a great victory. Note also the area “under the curve,” besides looking at peaks. That area is larger under Biden than under Trump, and it seems to be rising steadily if unevenly.
[2] (Biobot) Regional separation re-emerges.
[3] (CDC Variants) As of May 11, genomic surveillance data will be reported biweekly, based on the availability of positive test specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring every two weeks. 2. occurring twice a week; semiweekly.” Looks like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to worry about. Time will tell.
[4] (ER) “Charts and data provided by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the past year, using a rolling 52-week period.”
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Not flattening. (Date for data corrected; it was a glitch.)
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Still down. “Maps, charts, and data provided by CDC, updates weekly for the previous MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Department Visits, Test Positivity) and weekly the following Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.
[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.
[8] (Cleveland) Flattening.
[9] (Travelers: Posivitity) Now up, albeit in the rear view mirror.
[10] (Travelers: Variants) Backward revisions remove NV.1 data. JN.1 dominates utterly.
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States Industrial Production” [Trading Economics]. “Industrial production in the US increased by 0.1% from the previous month in February 2024, following a downwardly revised 0.5% fall in January. It compared with market expectations of no growth and marked a rebound from two consecutive months of decline.”
Manufacturing: “United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index sank to -20.9 in March 2024 from -2.4 in February and much worse than forecasts of -7. The reading showed manufacturing activity continued to decline in the New York State, with demand softening as new orders declined significantly.”
(1) Manufacturing: “‘If anything happens, it’s not suicide’: Boeing whistleblower’s prediction to family before death” (video) [WCIV, YouTube].
[embedded content]
That’s from a TV station. How come there’s no reporting from Charleston’s Post and Courier on this?
Manufacturing: “Boeing whistleblower John Barnett ‘made powerful enemies’ before his death, as workers ‘skeptical’ he killed himself” [New York Post]. “Boeing workers warn that whistleblower John Barnett ‘made powerful enemies’ before his alleged suicide… ‘I don’t know what to believe. We don’t really talk about it on the (assembly) line. We’re on camera from the minute we get on the property. They can hear us. So no one wants to talk about it at work. A lot of people are skeptical, because he made some pretty powerful enemies,” [said one Boeing worker]…. Steve Chancellor, who has written two books on staged crime scenes and runs Second Look Training and Forensic Consulting, said that when someone dies by suicide, the gun only remains in the person’s hand 25% of the time. The mere fact that the gun was in the hand, I would pay attention to that,” he told The Post.” • I still want to know what happened to Barnett’s computer. Presumably, it was in his hotel room? Where did it go after that? (The 25% figure is supported by this study in The American Journal of Forensic Medicine and Pathology, from alert reader ChrisPacific.) Meanwhile, This account claims Barnett’s truck was dusted for fingerprints, but there’s no sourcing and no parallel cite I can find.
Manufacturing: “A friend of John Barnett said he predicted he might wind up dead” [Hacker News]. • Skimming, I find little on Barnett, but plenty on eBay executives acting as if they were villains in Michael Clayton
Tech: “Vision Pro is an over-engineered “devkit” // Hardware bleeds genius & audacity but software story is disheartening // What we got wrong at Oculus that Apple got right // Why Meta could finally have its Android moment” [Hugo’s Blog]. “One of the findings in these experiments was that too much realism and fidelity could be one of the things that crosses a line. In other words, hyperrealism could quickly drag people into the uncanny valley, one of two places we always want to avoid in VR (the other place is motion sickness)…. Luckily for Apple, there is one category where hyperrealism is much less likely to be an issue especially for hardcore fans — Live Sports. Live sports will be Apple’s secret weapon to sell a huge number of Vision Pro headsets to hardcore fans — but it’s going to be a long & expensive journey.” • Interesting. So don’t short Apple, I suppose.
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 68 Greed (previous close: 72 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 66 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Mar 15 at 12:39:09 PM ET.
The Gallery
“A $300 Watercolor Turns Out to Be a JMW Turner That Could Be Worth $38,000” [ArtNet]. • Painted when Turner was 20:
Amazing, when you think about it, what the eye, hand, brain, and brush can do.
The Conservatory
“Germany adds Berlin’s techno scene to Unesco cultural heritage list” [Guardian]. “Intangible cultural heritage status is more commonly granted to more traditional cultural activities, such as Malawian Mwinoghe dancing or Slovakian bagpipe culture. The recent recognition on Unesco’s list of intangible cultural heritage of Jamaican reggae and India’s huge Kumbh Mela festival, however, prompted techno community leaders in Berlin to campaign for their scene to be included in Germany’s register, which is separate to the Unesco list.” • I’m wondering what American cultural activities should be granted “intangible heritage” status (and I’m not being entirely ironic. I was thinking Big Truck Days, but there are too many of them).
News of the Wired
“Experiments in Printmaking, Part 1” [Engineers Need Art]. “The effect I am going for with the Cherry Mash piece is a pop-art (Warhol-esque) print of the candy, reduced (posterized) to just three colors (red, yellow and black) and with obvious half-toning. The result is above, and I am more or less happy with the result. Printed roughly LP album sized (13″ × 13″) on my Epson inkjet, it looks pretty cool. I decided to try a few experiments with regard to capturing the image and separating the colors and I ended up printing the image in an unorthodox manner. Some things worked well, other things not so much. I’ll describe the process here.” • Missing the aesthetics part, but perhaps that’s Warhol?
“Oregon Outback is now the largest Dark Sky Sanctuary in the world” [Here is Oregon]. “The region, which on Monday was officially named the Oregon Outback International Dark Sky Sanctuary, comprises the southeastern half of Lake County, including Hart Mountain, Lake Abert and Summer Lake. Future plans include expanding the sanctuary to 11.4 million acres across Harney and Malheur counties. The designation was given by DarkSky International, an organization dedicated to protecting the nighttime environment and preserving dark skies through environmentally responsible outdoor lighting. The project is the work of the Oregon Dark Sky Network, an ad-hoc group of state, local and federal officials, private individuals, business owners and tourism agencies.” • Good. Let’s keep it that way!
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