By Lambert Strether of Corrente
Patient readers, what you see is what you get today; I must hustle along and finish a post on Project 2025. –lambert
Bird Song of the Day
Eastern Meadowlark, County Roads SE of Thrall, Williamson, Texas, United States.
In Case You Might Miss…
(1) Many new Covid charts; New York and New England wastewater down; positivity up; New York hospitaliztation continues its weirdly steady rise.
(2) Trump lawfare status.
(3) Supreme Court decisions and Thursday’s debate.
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Less than a half a year to go!
Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:
At this point, we should entertain the hypothesis that the Bragg verdict is a damp squib, unless Biden can somehow leverage it in the debate. Swing States (more here) still Brownian-motioning around. Of course, it goes without saying that these are all state polls, therefore bad, and most of the results are within the margin of error. If will be interesting to see whether the verdict in Judge Merchan’s court affects the polling, and if so, how. NOTE Sorry for the excess red dots; I can’t seem to make them go away!
Trump (People vs. Trump): “Andrew Cuomo: If His Name Was Not Donald Trump The New York Case Would Have Never Been Brought” [RealClearPolitics]. On Bill Maher: “[CUOMO:] That case, the Attorney General’s case in New York, frankly should have never been brought. And if his name was not Donald Trump, and if he wasn’t running for president from the former AG in New York, I’m telling you that case would have never been brought. And that’s what is offensive to people. And it should be. Because if there’s anything left, it’s belief in the justice system.” • I suppose it would be too cheeky for the Trump campaign to make an ad out of that clip; or for Trump to mention it in debate….
Trump (Smith/Cannon): “As Trump’s Documents Case Crawls Along, Questions About Judge Abound” [Wall Street Journal]. “Trump’s legal team has filed a stream of long-shot arguments, and the number of unresolved issues is piling up, with no trial date in sight. ‘She could be overwhelmed and at sea, or super insecure, or it’s just about delay. You could interpret it several different ways. But whatever the reasons, it certainly has the effect of bogging things down,’ said Randall Eliason, a George Washington University law professor and former public-corruption prosecutor.” • I read the article twice, and for all I can tell, it’s just vibes. Worth noting that Jack Smith over-reached, badly, once before; his conviction of Terry McAuliffe was reversed.
Trump (R): “Trump is on a fundraising blitz. But there are other warning signs for Republicans” [Politico]. “But outside of the money race, a series of other developments in recent days have left even Republicans with the impression that November may not be quite as good for the GOP as it once seemed…. Now, new polling from Fox News shows an 11-point swing in President Joe Biden’s favorability among independents: They prefer Biden by 9 points, a reversal from May, when they favored Trump by 2 points.” That’s a lot! And: “Financially, the conviction was a boon to Trump’s small-dollar donor operation. But electorally, the reality of Trump’s conviction has begun to set in, they said…. [A]s Tom McCabe, the GOP chair of swingy Mahoning County, Ohio, put it: ‘This election is going to be decided on the margins, and short-term, his conviction is hurting him in the polling.’ …. In a special election in Ohio’s 6th Congressional District this month, massively outspent Democrat Michael Kripchak erased 19 points from Trump’s 2020 margin of victory — still losing, but becoming the first Democratic candidate to carry the blue-collar Mahoning County since Trump painted it red in 2020. Incumbent Democratic senators in battleground states like Wisconsin, Nevada and Pennsylvania are polling ahead of their Republican challengers. In Arizona’s open Senate race, Republican Kari Lake, a star of the MAGA movement, is underperforming in the polls.”
Trump (R): “Former first lady Melania Trump stays out of the public eye as Donald Trump runs for president” [Associated Press]. “The former first lady noticeably did not accompany the presumptive Republican presidential nominee on any of the days of his more than monthlong hush money trial in New York. She was not there last month for the guilty verdict or the following day for his remarks at Trump Tower. She also did not appear June 14 at a 78th birthday party organized for Trump by his fan club, or at any of the campaign rallies he has held in recent months. Her absence during the trial and for other important moments is unusual, said Katherine Jellison, a professor of history at Ohio University who studies first ladies. But Jellison said maybe it should not come as a surprise as Melania Trump seems reluctant to follow the traditional public role of a politician’s wife. As first lady, she also kept a low profile and she was not a regular presence on her husband’s losing 2020 presidential campaign…. ‘But everything the Trumps do seems to be against the standard playbook of how candidates and spouses behave,’ Jellison said.” • A non-story, then….
Trump (R): “Former Obama fundraiser says she’s divorcing the Democratic Party, voting for Trump for the first time” [FOX]. “An ex-Obama fundraiser who helped raise millions in donations for his campaign announced that she is ‘divorcing’ the Democratic Party and plans to vote for Trump in the upcoming election. ‘Like any divorce, there’s not just one thing, there’s a series of things that led up to it,’ Allison Huynh said on ‘Jesse Watters Primetime’ Wednesday…. Huynh, who created Willow Garage, a company that created robotics and AI systems, which were later sold to Google, along with her then-husband Google programmer Scott Hassan, helped raise millions of dollars for the Obama campaign in 2008 by hosting elaborate ‘$50,000- and $100,000-per-plate dinners, for Silicon Valley giants, the New York Post reported. In the years since, Huynh said she has grown disenchanted with the Democratic Party, telling Fox News host Jesse Watters that she is increasingly fed up as crime, looting and homelessness continue to run rampant under their leadership.” • Hmm.
Biden (D): “As Biden lags in key states, big questions for Democrats” [Axios]. “In the five battleground states where there are also Senate races, Biden and the Democratic candidate are up in both only in Wisconsin, according to Real Clear Politics averages of polls released since May 1. In the other four — Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania — Trump leads, while the Republican Senate candidates have clear deficits.” • Does either candidate have coat-tails?
Biden (D): “Sorry, James Carville, but Joe Biden is the best bet to beat Trump” [The Hill]. “The Electoral College math is admittedly a challenge for Biden. But there is no evidence any other Democrat could do better. There are 25 states that Trump won in both 2016 and 2020. He will likely win them all again in 2024 — including North Carolina and Florida, which he won narrowly both times — combining for 235 electoral votes. We will assume that any other Democratic candidate would very likely lose all of these states as well. Trump thus needs to add 35 additional electoral votes to that total to regain the White House. This brings us to Georgia, with its 16 electoral votes, and Arizona with its 11. Trump barely lost both states in 2020, despite winning them four years earlier. These are the two states Trump must win back from Biden this November. And there is little evidence that any other Democrat would have a better chance than Biden in keeping them out of the Trump column. Trump leads (albeit narrowly) in all recent polls of those two states. So adding Georgia and Arizona to Trump’s column for the sake of argument gives him 262 electoral votes. Trump then needs only to win either Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin — three states he carried in 2016 — to be the next president of the United States.”
Biden (D): “What Obama Is Whispering to Biden” [Gabriel Debenedetti, New York Magazine]. “Often these days, those who speak with Obama walk away with the clear impression that his fundamental view of politics, and of his ultimate political role, has only shifted so much even amid all of the past decade’s upheaval. He is as forceful as anyone in declaring this moment’s peril, but after years of seeming to question the deeper meaning of Trump’s rise and possible return, Obama now comes across as having concluded that no radical rethink is necessary for his own conception of political progress or mass movements.” • Oh.
The Debate: “Will the Supreme Court blow up the presidential debate?” [New Criterion]. Well worth a read: “Whatever the reasons, the two camps settled on a day and a week when the Supreme Court will be handing down a series of explosive decisions, several of them bearing upon the presidential campaign. Some of those decisions may be handed down on the morning of the debate and could upend settled strategies not only for Biden and Trump, but the debate moderators as well. The Supreme Court is still sitting on a dozen pending cases that were argued during the course of the 2023–24 term, and it’s scheduled to issue opinions on all (or most) of them on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday of this week—that is, over the three-day period sandwiching the presidential debate. The granddaddy of them all is the Trump immunity case that may circumscribe Jack Smith’s prosecution of the former president over his alleged role in the January 6 riot at the Capitol.” But also: “In Murthy v. Missouri, the court will rule on claims by multiple plaintiffs who contend that the federal government engaged in improper censorship by leaning on social-media companies to suppress conservative views in regard to the origins of COVID-19, the 2020 presidential election, the efficacy masks and vaccines, and other issues.” • The court could say “Let the people decide!” and release everything on Thursday morning. Or it could tease us on Wednesday, and hold the most impactful cases until Friday. However it goes, it will be hard to see the timing as anything other than political.
The Debate: “Exasperated Democrats try to stamp out talk of replacing Biden” [The Hill]. “One Democratic senator feigned putting a make-believe pistol to their temple when asked about the prospect of yanking Biden off the ticket before the Democratic National Convention in August or the general election in November. The senator, who requested anonymity, said stories about replacing Biden on the ticket sound ‘juicy’ but are nothing more than a sign that political pundits have ‘too much time on their hands.’ ‘There’s no way in hell that’s true. Not a chance in hell that’s true,’ the lawmaker insisted. ‘I don’t know what to say.’ … Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) also poured cold water on the speculation. ‘I’ve heard no credible plan B, and I’m not counting on a plan B,’ he said. The Democratic senator said Thursday’s debate between Biden and Trump ‘will be a really critical point’ in the campaign and would set the trajectory of the race. ‘All of the questions that people are asking right now will have different answers after this debate,’ he said. ‘At the end of the day, it’s going to be a choice between the two of them. I think Biden is so much sharper, quicker, knowledgeable than even Democrats give him credit for.’ ‘We all have moments when we can’t remember a name, but that’s not what’s important about being president of the United States,’ he said. ‘I don’t have a plan B; I’m not looking for a plan B.’” • The thing is, the talk is coming from Democratic strategists… talking their books?
The Debate: “Is this going to be the most performative presidential debate ever?” [Jackie Calmes, Los Angeles Times]. “Nonetheless, as my colleague Stephen Battaglio recently wrote, presidential debates are “one of the last mass audience experiences left in a highly fragmented TV landscape.” Six of 10 U.S. adults said they would watch all or most of Thursday’s showdown, and nearly a quarter said they would closely follow the news coverage about it, according to a PBS News/NPR/Marist poll this month. Good for them. In our polarized nation, a presidential debate is a rare communal experience, if far less enjoyable than a Super Bowl.” And: “[T]here’s nothing in Trump’s sorry rhetorical record to suggest he will rise to the occasion. Yet that, too, would be informative. Stay tuned.”
Democrats en Déshabillé
“Democrats prepare for more lawfare ahead of Trump 2.0” [Unherd]. “So welcome to the doom spiral. As outlets such as the Times continue treating the Right’s lawfare as a dark conspiracy and the Left’s as a campaign to save democracy, political use of the courts will only escalate. This doesn’t absolve partisans of their responsibility to constituents and the Constitution. It does, however, mean they’ll increasingly feel forced to turn to the logic of ‘desperate times, desperate measures’, perhaps rightfully assuming that the only way out is through. If the placid Times story is any indication, it’s not clear America’s political elite is prepared for what that unleashes.” • Third World stuff.
Realignment and Legitimacy
Nobody credits Joe Biden for doing his most important job really well:
4 years ago Bernie Sanders held a rally with AOC in Queens that drew over 25,000 people. Today, both showed up to rally for Jamaal Bowman and the place was empty. This is what happens when you make people believe you will fight for them and then you don’t.https://t.co/l0ccuZ7W19
— Prof Zenkus (@anthonyzenkus) June 23, 2024
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. The numbers in the right hand column are identical. The dots on the map are not.
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.3 dominating.
[4] (ER) This is the best I can do for now. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Though the level is not high, I find the seemingly inexorable rise concerning. (The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). This is the best I can do for now. Note the assumption that Covid is seasonal is built into the presentation. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.
[7] (Walgreens) 4.3%; big jump. (Because there is data in “current view” tab, I think white states here have experienced “no change,” as opposed to have no data.)
[8] (Cleveland) Still going up!
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.
[10] (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads. I’m leaving this here for another week because I loathe them so much:
[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.
[12] Deaths low, ED up.
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas came in at -15.1 in June 2024, up from a four-month low of -19.4 in May. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, inched up to 0.7 from -2.8 in May.”
Tech: “Why astronauts ‘need space sex robots’ – and it’s not just because they’re randy” [Daily Star]. And the deck: “Researchers say mechanical robots are preferred than virtual assistants in space when it comes to solving problem and providing emotional support to astronauts on long mission.” • Plus, robots won’t get kidney dysfunction in space. Idea: Forget about the astronauts. Just send robots!
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 43 Fear (previous close: 40 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 41 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jun 24 at 12:45:44 PM ET.
Rapture Index: Closes down one on food supply. “The lack of activity has downgraded this category” [Rapture Ready]. Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 186. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) • Not what the climate coverage implies.
The Gallery
Class Warfare
“Bring Back Capitalism” (excerpt) [Matt Taibbi, Racket News]. “Seeing Chase CEO Jamie Dimon issue a smiling clarion call in Fortune for higher taxes and massive government intervention via a ‘Marshall Plan for America’ was a major tell that something even worse than what he called ‘free-for-all capitalism” was being contemplated. Dimon’s pledge was in line with outgoing World Economic Forum chief Klaus Schwab’s ‘stakeholder capitalism,’ which purports to end the idea of corporations existing to ‘maximize their profits,’ and make business leaders ‘trustees of society,’ leading efforts to address ‘social and environmental challenges.’ For those who aren’t fluent in rich-person bullshit, what Schwab and Dimon (and a long list of others, like Apple CEO Tim Cook and BlackRock’s Larry Fink) were proposing was that we take the same people who spent the last twenty years devouring Fed rescues and converting the savings of the middle class into Jackson Hole villas, and instead of hurling them off cliffs, put them in charge of society. They would additionally like taxpayers to fund a big enough safety net to guarantee the next generation of customers for, say, a depository bank. As in: ‘We screwed things up so badly, you need to give us even more leeway to make things right.’ It’s enough to make the most mild-mannered person reach for something sharp.” • That’s the stuff to give the troops! (However, I don’t think much of Substack’s “Claim my free post” button; in fact, it’s just a gimmick to get me to download their app, i.e. not free. Why not just open up the post?)
News of the Wired
“Microfeatures I Love in Blogs and Personal Websites” [Daniel’s Blog]. This one: “RSS is a feed standard that allows sites to publish updates. Blogs in particular can make use of RSS to notify readers of updates. RSS feeds are processed by a feed reader, which is a program that polls a website’s index.xml file (or other similar files) and reads it to detect new content. If you opt in to full-text RSS feeds, users can read the entire post entirely from their reader. RSS makes it easier to keep up with your site. Rather than having to check in on every author whose content I enjoy on the internet, I can add their feed URL to my list, and have my feed reader automatically aggregate all updates for me to read. It’s kind of like a social media or news feed, except that I control what’s shown to me, and authors of the blogs I follow don’t need to create accounts and explicitly share their work on social media!” • I upgrade my RSS workflow when it looked like the Twitter might go belly-up; I’ve never regretted it. That said, most of the other features are or were do-able in the blogoshere, but the platforms — looking at you, Substack — don’t support them, greatly limiting the expressive power of the author.
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