The Milwaukee Bucks look to take a commanding lead over the Chicago Bulls Sunday, leading to plenty of opportunities for prop bets.
Jump ahead: Game of the night | Picks and props | Analytics edge
All odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
What you need to know for Sunday’s playoff games
Chicago Creation: Competing without a true pass-first point guard has tasked some in Chicago’s rotation with increased creation equity. Alex Caruso has averaged 7.7 potential assists and a team-high 59.7 passes through three games against Milwaukee. Caruso’s assist prop sits at a reasonable 3.5 ahead of Game 4. DeMar DeRozan currently paces the Bulls with 12.7 potential assists per game this postseason, making his assist prop of 4.5 intriguing.
Looking for Lowry: Kyle Lowry did not play the fourth quarter of the Heat’s Game 3’s loss in Atlanta due to a hamstring injury. He missed Miami’s practice on Saturday and is listed as questionable to play in today’s matchup. If Lowry can’t go, it’s important to note that Tyler Herro saw a sizable leap in DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Lowry off the floor this season, while Bam Adebayo has seen his assist percentage rise by 3.8%. If Lowry is limited or sidelined, Herro and Duncan Robinson will get more defensive exposure, matchups that Bogdan Bogdanovic has taken advantage of thus far.
Pound the Rock: The Suns have been able to stick to their game plan in Games 1 and 3 of this series. Game 2 was only the exception due to Devin Booker‘s injury. In those two games, Deandre Ayton and JaVale McGee have made 32-of-45 shots for 76 points. That sort of usage doesn’t happen by accident and it’s tough to see that changing in a pivotal Game 4. If you want to go heavy on Ayton props and/or DFS exposure, you have the green light and can certainly justify getting a little creative with McGee. He is 13-of-14 shooting in this series with 15.6 points and 6.3 rebounds per 20 minutes.
Digging Deeper: Jimmy Butler is averaging 28.7 PPG in this series and shooting 53.3% from the field, great numbers by any measure. However, be careful to assume Butler’s overs are a lock in Game 4. He’s had three highly-efficient quarters (33 points on 12-of-17 shooting) and nine quarters that aren’t nearly as impressive (53 points on 20-of-43 shooting). Of course, the ability to have the big quarter is a skill, but if he can’t get loose (something we saw for the final three-quarters of Game 3), the door is open for his under props to cash.
Beyond Booker: Chris Paul should consume a massive offensive workload with Devin Booker out for several weeks due to a hamstring injury. Paul has leaped from 44 passes and 66 touches in Game 1 alongside Booker to 60 passes and 91 touches in Game 3 without him. Cameron Johnson‘s production has jumped by nearly three DraftKings points per 36 minutes when Booker is off the floor this season. He started and played an important role as a floor-spacer in Game 3.
— Jim McCormick & Kyle Soppe
Game of the day
Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls
1 p.m. ET on ABC, United Center, Chicago, IL
Line: Bucks (-4.0)
Money line: Bucks (-180), Bulls (+155)
Total: 218.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 221.2 points
BPI Win%: Bucks (57.3%)
Key players ruled out: Khris Middleton
Notable: Bridging the East Finals and the NBA Finals last season, four straight Milwaukee playoff games went over the total. Since that point in time, under are 4-1-2 in games featuring Giannis Antetokounmpo and Co.
Best bet: Over 218.5 points. The Bulls had their worst offensive performance of the series in Game 3, shooting 39.3% from the field. While the Bucks were not great either, it would be surprising if Chicago shot poorly again in Game 4. The Bucks have the Bulls on the rope and should bring their best game as well, so I’m taking the over. — Eric Moody
Best bet: Nikola Vucevic over 33.5 points + assists + rebounds. Brook Lopez struggled to defend Vucevic at times during the series, stretching out to the perimeter to stop his shots and then having difficulties getting back to the paint to defend the rim. Vucevic has averaged 20.6 field goal attempts per game. He should be involved early and often. — Moody
Best bet: Nikola Vucevic over 2.5 made threes. Both Bulls and Bucks have been inconsistent throughout this series, so I tend to focus on the prop market. The Bulls shot 26.5% from three in Game 3 and I suspect there will be positive regression for DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Vucevic. Vucevic stands out as he has hit over this made threes prop in two of three series games, going 4 for 8 in game two and 3 for 9. — Erin Dolan
Best bet: Bobby Portis over 9.5 rebounds. Portis has cleaned the glass against the Bulls all season. Outside of Game 2, in which he got hurt in the first half, Portis has averaged 11.0 RPG in 25.8 MPG over his past six games against the Bulls this season. Now that he’s in the starting lineup, he should get the minutes to produce again on Sunday. — André Snellings
Breaking down the rest of the slate
Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets
3 p.m. ET on ESPN, Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Line: Warriors (-4.0)
Money line: Warriors (-180), Nuggets (+130)
Total: 224.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 228.2 points
BPI Win%: Nuggets (52.9%)
Key players ruled out: none
Notable: Have the Nuggets in the playoffs become the most predictable entity in the sport? They’ve failed to cover each of their past seven postseason games and have seen 10 of their past 13 go over the number.
Best bet: Klay Thompson over 3.5 3-pointers. Thompson has averaged 23 PPG and 3.3 triples per game in this series. Thompson made history in Game 3 hitting six or more 3-pointers in 18 career playoff games. Expect a similar result from Thompson in Game 4. — Moody
0:52
Tyler Fulgham is taking Warriors -4 vs. Nuggets Sunday to get the sweep.
Best bet: Warriors -4. I’ve picked the Warriors against the spread in the past two games, and I’m sticking with that in Game 4. Yes, the Nuggets will try to steal one with their backs against the wall to avoid the sweep. But the Warriors just have too many weapons and can attack from too many angles for the Nuggets to win unless Golden State has a bad game. A veteran-laden team like the Warriors wants to get through this series as soon as possible so they can rest and avoid potential injury. — Snellings
0:27
Sports betting analyst Erin Dolan shares her favorite bet for today’s NBA playoff games.
Best Bet: Nikola Jokic over 44.5 points + rebounds. Jokic and the Nuggets have their backs against the wall heading into Game 4. The Warriors are 3-0 and can close out the series, but Jokic is Denver’s only hope to steal a win one game. In what could be his final game of the season, Jokic won’t get a ton of rest. He easily hit over this number last game, after failing to do so in the first two games of the series. — Dolan
Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks
7 p.m. ET, State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
Line: Heat (-2.0)
Money line: Heat (-130), Hawks (+110)
Total: 221.0 points
BPI Projected Total: 213.2 points
BPI Win%: Hawks (56.7%)
Key players ruled out: Clint Capela
Notable: Every game in this series has gone under the total, and that’s nothing new for the Hawks, a team that has now seen 10 of their past 13 playoff games come in under the point expectation.
Best bet: Trae Young under 27.5 points. Young has only averaged 21.3 PPG in his past nine games against the Heat dating back to last season and gone over 27.5 points twice in those nine games. Young utilizes more on-ball picks than anyone not named Luka Doncic, and the Heat are great at defending them. It’s possible Young just gets hot as he did in the regular season, but based on history odds are he will go under the line. — Snellings
Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans
9:30 p.m. ET, Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
Line: Suns (-2.5)
Money line: Suns (-140), Pelicans (+120)
Total: 215.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 213 points
BPI Win%: Suns (51.3)
Key players ruled out: Devin Booker
Notable: Every game in this series has gone under the total, and that’s nothing new for the Hawks, a team that has now seen 10 of their past 13 playoff games come in under the point expectation.
Best bet: Chris Paul over 12.5 assists. Paul has collected 28 assists over the past two games, the most without a turnover in a two-game playoff span since 1977-1978. The Suns can put the Pelicans on the ropes with a win, but they will need Paul to function more as a facilitator rather than a scorer. — Moody
Analytics edge
BPI highest projected totals
1. Denver Nuggets (114.5 points)
2. Golden State Warriors (113.7 points)
3. Milwaukee Bucks (111.6 points)
BPI lowest projected totals
1. Miami Heat (105.7 points)
2. New Orleans Pelicans (106.3 points)
3. Phoenix Suns (106.7 points)
BPI top probability to win (straight up)
1. Milwaukee Bucks (57.3%)
2. Atlanta Hawks (56.7%)
3. Denver Nuggets (52.9%)