Serbia has resisted various forms of pressure since NATO began its war against Russia in Ukraine and remains the only European country refusing to join in Western sanctions on Russia.
Washington and Brussels have apparently had enough and issued Belgrade an ultimatum in January. The exact contents of the proposal haven’t been made public, but statements from Serbian officials hint at the following:
Carrot
Serbia must normalize relations (as opposed to full recognition) with Kosovo and accept its membership in international organizations like the UN, NATO and the Council of Europe. (NATO seized Kosovo from Serbia in 1999, following the bombing of the country. Most EU countries and the US support Kosovo independence, which was unilaterally declared in 2008. Serbia continues to view the region as part of its territory.)
In return Serbia would supposedly get some financial rewards and join the EU in 2030.
It remains unclear if joining sanctions on Russia is part of the ultimatum. One of many reasons that Belgrade and Moscow enjoy close ties is that Russia routinely blocks Kosovo’s UN membership, which it could still do even if Serbia recognized Kosovo.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić believes the ultimatum is more the result of the West’s agenda, “which includes the defeat of Russia and everything that stands in the way on this agenda, will be crushed.”
Stick
Should Belgrade refuse the ultimatum, it can expect the following:
EU and US investment in the country evaporates.
Serbia’s EU candidacy dies.
A ban on lending by European banks, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the World Bank and the IMF.
Reprisals on ethnic Serbs in NATO protectorates of Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina (violence flared up in such areas in Kosovo in the runup to the ultimatum).
An increase in efforts to interfere in Serbia and install a “pro-Western” government.
A reintroduction of visas.
Sanctions.
Seizure of assets.
According to Belgrade-based political analyst Dusan Janjic, there would be “conflict management” and destabilization controlled by the US, after which Washington would impose a solution.
Quite the way to start off a relationship.
Serbia officially applied for European Union membership in 2009. Reaching an agreement with Pristina and normalizing relations is the main hurdle for it to join the EU – a path it has been on for 14 years. So if it accepts the West’s terms, it gets to continue that process and gets an undisclosed amount of financial aid.
So there’s that. Now the fallout from a rejection of the ultimatum.
Two-thirds of Serbia’s trade is done with the EU. Russia and China rank second and third, respectively, but ten times lower than trade between Serbia and the EU. In recent years, Serbia has looked increasingly eastwards for trade – even signing a deal with the Russian-led Eurasian Union in 2019 despite threats from Brussels. Belgrade and Moscow also have strong military ties. But at the end of the day, Serbia is a landlocked country surrounded by NATO.
According to economist Branko Milanović, “the loss could be, depending on the severity of sanctions, up to 5-10% of GDP in the first year.” More:
This would divide the public. Although currently all parties are in favor of the rejection of the ultimatum, and the pro-European parties, having been cheated by Europe many times, have taken a strongly anti-acceptance stance, seemingly stronger than the government, it is likely though that after a few years, the body public would seriously split between the “party of rejection” and the supporters of new negotiations with the EU. If such parties become equal sides and start violently accusing each other, it might end in a civil war. Since the West would have very few friendly parties to negotiate with in Serbia, and since Serbia is surrounded by NATO members, even a formal occupation of the country by NATO cannot be excluded. One should not forget that, right now, both Bosnia and Kosovo are NATO protectorates, and that the West can, by one single move, overthrow at any time the governments in Montenegro and North Macedonia. Moreover, NATO tropes are in all these countries, plus in other border states (Romania, Croatia, Bulgaria, Hungary). Like in World War II, the very same countries could just march in.
So it would seem Brussels and Washington have Serbia over the barrel, but what do Serbians want?
Vucic says that the Assembly in Belgrade needs to discuss the proposal and there is the possibility of a national referendum. Should the latter take place, it is likely Serbia will refuse. From Euractiv:
Support for EU membership is low in Serbia, with a majority of 44% against joining the bloc. According to a recent Ipsos poll, just 35% are in favour, while the rest remain unsure. A further survey by one of the country’s leading pollsters found in August 2022 that only 20% of those surveyed viewed the EU positively.
A Demostat survey last year showed that only a third of Serbian citizens would vote for joining the EU, with 51 percent against. Additionally 80 percent were against the introduction of sanctions against Russia. Politically it will be impossible for Belgrade to acquiesce to the West’s demands, as it would be viewed as abandoning Serbs in Kosovo, in addition to ignoring public opinion.
The West’s hard line will likely only harden Serbs anti-EU attitudes as it confirms suspicions that the real goal is to force Serbia to heel. Additionally, the EU is simply not as attractive as it used to be, especially as it continues its self-immolation at the altar of American hegemony. Therefore, all it has to offer is threats. As Milanović puts it:
[The] EU reminds me of the bullies that were roaming the area around my high school in Belgrade. They would accost younger pupils and offer to sell them…a brick. The kid would say, “But I do not need the brick”. Ah, the bully would retort, “Yes, I know that you do, and it would cost you ten dinars”. The poor kid would pay 10 dinars knowing that the refusal would lead him to be beaten, hit in the head, kicked – and yet the ten dinars would be taken from his pocket.
And while Russia has its own reasons for wanting to keep Serbia peeled off from the EU, it’s hard to argue with this assessment from Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova:
The EU is leading Belgrade to a ‘bright future’ on one hand while committing anti-Serbian provocations with the other,” the Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman claimed. “This is betrayal from the outset,” she added, comparing relations between Brussels and Belgrade to “a marriage that starts with adultery.”
There have been reports that Serbia, should it take the deal, would be recognized as the “leading power in the region.” It’s unclear if such a designation would mean an end to ultimatums.
It’s more likely that once the EU – and more specifically Germany – has Serbia under its thumb, it will likely want more, starting with the green light on the Jadar lithium project, which could supply 90 percent of Europe’s current lithium needs.
Serbians have resisted the project as they don’t want the dirty mining project in their backyard.
But Berlin isn’t taking no for an answer. Belgrade revoked the mining licenses for Rio Tinto’s $2.4 billion lithium project last year, and yet Germany’s ruling coalition continues to push the plan as part of the EU “Global Gateway” infrastructure program.
The proposed mining project is but one fear that Serbians have over a surrender to the West.
If we take a step back and examine the larger picture, we see NATO currently aligned with Eastern European fascist elements against Russia, almost like a replay of WWII with the US switching sides. Serbia, like Russia, was attacked by German and Germany-aligned fascists during the second world war, which resulted in the genocide of hundreds of thousands of Serbs.
So one can understand the hesitancy to surrender sovereignty to a Germany that plans to serve the U.S.-led Western empire by strengthening its role as European leader, including pushing for a larger, more militarized EU, which will be governed by majority decisions and include the Balkan statelets.
In such a scenario, Germany would wield even more control over the EU than it does today, as its influence on most of the poor Balkan states would help bring about a majority. Germany is among the top three export destinations for Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro, Macedonia, Albania and Kosovo and is one of the top European investors in the region, making Berlin the most important EU partner for the Balkan states. This is not lost on Serbia.
“Germany wants full dominance in the Balkans,” said Vučić back in December. And by extension, that means the US does too.
While the writing is on the wall regarding the West’s failed war against Russia, Serbia may well end up being the consolation prize. Whether Belgrade accepts the ultimatum or not, the outcome will be the same the West has declared. Finally, after Germany’s attempts in both world wars and NATO’s “noble bombing” in the 1990s, Serbia will be subdued.