By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Kind readers, I’m having some cash flow problems for the next week or so. If you had a winning day at the track, or found some change under the couch cushions, and could throw a little my way, I would greatly appreciate the de-stressor. This is not a fundraising post, so don’t go overboard!! The Tip Jar is below. –lambert
Bird Song of the Day
Common Nightingale., Fonte Benémola, Loulé, Faro, Portugal. “Vocalização noturna.” I like the night insects, too.
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Capitol Seizure
“Barring Trump from office could bring closure for Jan. 6 riots, former officer says” [The Hill]. • Closure?!
2024
Time for the Countdown Clock!
Today is the day! Only one full year to election day!
“Trump fraud trial live updates: Former president takes the stand to testify in N.Y. legal case” [NBC]. “As questioning continued about Trump’s properties, the former president said he thought several valuations were ‘too high,’ including of his Trump Tower triplex in 2014. Asked why the valuation was too high, Trump said a broker assessed the total area as 30,000 square feet, ‘and I have access to the roof, and when you add the roof, you’re not that far off.’ He said, ‘I see how it was done,’ telling the court that ‘they took 10,000 per floor’ and ‘times three’ and didn’t take out the elevator shaft and other things. He added, ‘There’s a disclaimer clause, so if there is a mistake … you don’t get sued by the attorney general’s office.’ In his earlier deposition, Trump referred to a disclaimer clause in the company’s financial statements ‘that says, don’t believe the statement, go out and do your own work. This statement is ‘worthless.’ It means nothing.’ But in his late-September ruling ahead of the trial, Engoron shot down Trump’s claim. ‘The clause does not use the words ‘worthless’ or ‘useless’ or ‘ignore’ or any similar words,’ Engoron wrote. ‘It does not say ‘the values herein are what I think the properties will be worth in ten or more years.’” • OTOH, I remember alert reader DCBlogger saying, many years ago, that Trump’s financials would take him down. OTOH, we’re taking him down on real estate valuation? I grant that New York real estate is renowned for probity, but given Trump’s reputation for puffery, would even a child of six be taken in by him? (Granted, I may be oversimplifying complex legal issues…. It would be irresponsible not to speculate, but if Trump goes down for this, how many other real estate tycoons will start feeling sketchy, especially in this climate? (“Use every man after his desert, and who should ‘scape whipping? –Hamlet, Act 2, Scene 2. Could it be that the best outcome for James would be convicting Trump for 2024, then losing on appeal, preserving the real estate industry? Readers?
“Trump leads Biden in 5 battleground states in New York Times poll” [Just the News]. “Trump leads Biden by 10 points in Nevada, 6 in Georgia, 5 in Arizona, 5 in Michigan and 4 in Pennsylvania, according to new polls by The New York Times and Siena College. He is down by 2 points in Wisconsin. Biden carried all six of the states in 2020, but now, 59% of voters in those states say they disapprove of Biden’s job performance, while 38% say they approve. Meanwhile, 71% of respondents said Biden is ‘too old to be an effective president,’ compared to 39% who said the same about Trump. Additionally, 62% of voters said Biden does not have the mental sharpness to be an effective president, while just 35% said he does. As to Trump’s mental acuity, 54% of voters said he is sharp enough to be an effective president compared to 44% who said he is not. More than half of all registered voters surveyed (53%) also said Biden’s policies have personally hurt them, while 51% of voters said Trump’s policies have personally helped them.” • That “personally hurt them” question is interesting. Assuming it’s not a proxy for inflation/unemployment, Joe Biden owes me six hundred bucks. Meanwhile, Trump abolished the stupid ObamaCare mandate penalty, saving me six hundred bucks. Not that I’m completely trivial-minded. Nevertheless.
“It’s very late to change horses….” [David Axelrod, Threadreader]. “The greatest concern is that his biggest liability is the one thing he can’t change. Among all the unpredictables there is one thing that is sure: the age arrow only points in one direction. The @POTUS is justly proud of his accomplishments…. But the stakes of miscalculation here are too dramatic to ignore. Only @JoeBiden can make this decision. If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it’s in HIS best interest or the country’s?
Yes, there also is risk associated with changing course now, as there is little time left for a primary campaign–and campaigns are how we test candidates. (Re @RonDeSantis.) But there is a lot of leadership talent in the Democratic Party, poised to emerge.” • Totally! Take Big Gretch — please! (And you can bet Axelrod and Obama talked first; see below.)
“Why Biden Is Behind, and How He Could Come Back” [New York Times]. “The poll contains considerable evidence that it shouldn’t necessarily be daunting for Democrats to reassemble a coalition to defeat Mr. Trump, who remains every bit as unpopular as he was three years ago. But even if Mr. Trump remains eminently beatable, the poll also suggests it may nonetheless be quite challenging for Mr. Biden himself…. The deterioration in Mr. Biden’s standing is broad, spanning virtually every demographic group, yet it yields an especially deep blow to his electoral support among young, Black and Hispanic voters, with Mr. Trump obtaining previously unimaginable levels of support with them.” • Handy chart:
Only identity, never class.
“Opinion: Why Democrats shouldn’t despair over concerning new polls about Biden” [CNN]. “Let’s start with the Times/Siena polling that is likely causing many in Biden world to reach for a handful of antacids. It’s not just the top-line finding that the president is trailing in key battleground states including Nevada, Arizona and even Michigan, where Biden is down by 5 percentage points to Trump in a state he won by nearly 3 points in 2020. According to the Times, the multiracial coalition that powered Biden to victory is ‘fraying,’ with support falling among Black and Hispanic voters. Biden also is seeing a drop in support among voters under 30…., You might be asking then: Why not panic? There are a few reasons. First, President Barack Obama faced high disapproval ratings the year before the 2012 election (although not as high as Biden’s). …. We all get that Obama and Biden are not the same candidates. But what is instructive is that Obama won in large part by way of a superior ground game in terms of ensuring that voters who supported him actually did cast a ballot. Biden — who was Obama’s vice president — is obviously well aware of this.” • And then of course there are the issues: Abortion and “democracy.” But that’s not what Biden’s team believes, at least not completely–
“Biden spent weeks of auto strike talks building ties to UAW leader that have yet to fully pay off” [Chicago Tribune]. “[E]ven as Biden’s sympathies publicly shifted toward union workers during the standoff, there are few signs that the UAW fully warmed to the Democratic president. Biden has yet to receive the union’s endorsement as he seeks reelection with the message that he has delivered for blue-collar workers. The UAW declined to talk about its relationship with the White House. No final decision on the endorsement is expected to come until after contracts with the automakers are finalized [smart], which probably will happen later this month. The relationship between Fain and Biden could be crucial to the outcome of the 2024 election. More than 380,000 UAW members are scattered in states that include Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, places where narrow margins have decided the overall winner of the past two presidential contests.”
“Nikki Haley Cannot Beat Trump” [The American Conservative]. “The strategic argument for a Haley win looks like this: Ron DeSantis cannot beat Donald Trump. Therefore, Nikki Haley must…. [Haley’s] temperament is optimistic and her foreign policy is radically interventionist, as evidenced by her cast of every recent conflict, from Ukraine to Israel, as ‘a fight between ‘good and evil.” As Haley herself said last week in a speech to the Republican Jewish Coalition, ‘It’s nice to have so many Israel supporters in one room. Lord knows we need more in America right now.’ In other words, Haley is the woman for the job because she is a Republican of an era that the good old boys in Washington would do almost anything to bring back to life. Of course, pining for the 1980s is an all-but-guaranteed way to lose the presidential contest, as we saw in 2008, 2012, and 2016. Whatever the good old boys in Washington want, it is not what the majority of American people want today.”
“How Newsom’s China trip could boost climate change research — and his political profile” [The Hill]. “Newsom’s visit to China — which followed a brief stop in Israel — was the first such trip made by an American governor in more than four years and in part served to thaw tensions between the countries, his office stated. The trip, according to Newsom’s team, prioritized three goals: advancing climate action, promoting economic development and tourism, and strengthening cultural bonds. It also involved meetings with high-level officials, including President Xi Jinping. Newsom, who is widely believed to harbor presidential ambitions, refrained from addressing whether the trip has bolstered his image on the national stage — noting during the press call that these considerations were not a reason for the trip. But from an outsider’s perspective, Thad Kousser, a political science professor at the University of California San Diego, told The Hill he believes the trip offered Newsom the opportunity ‘to be taken seriously as a presidential contender.’ ‘The image of you sitting next to the leader of the second most powerful country in the world elevates your image,’ he continued.”
PA: “Why Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court Election Matters” [Wall Street Journal]. “Pennsylvania next week will elect a new Justice to its state Supreme Court, and the race is worth watching well beyond Harrisburg. The winning jurist could be the tiebreaker in litigation over the state’s 2024 voting rules. The result could also show whether the end of Roe v. Wade is still powering Democrats to the polls…. Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court is split 4-2, with one vacancy and Democratic jurists in the majority. Tuesday’s election, which will replace the late Justice Max Baer, can’t flip the partisan balance, though it would put the GOP one step closer toward a possible takeover in 2025. For more immediate implications, look at the high court’s most recent mail-ballot blunder, a 3-3 stalemate last fall that was made possible by Baer’s death. Whoever replaces him could cast a pivotal vote. That 2022 dispute involved whether to count mail ballots with missing dates. State law tells voters to ‘fill out, date and sign,’ but the argument was that tossing undated ballots would violate federal law. Seven days before the November election, the Justices announced they were ‘evenly divided.’ They ordered counties to ‘segregate and preserve any ballots contained in undated or incorrectly dated outer envelopes.’
That could have prompted a partisan meltdown, if a candidate losing by a hair had begged the judiciary to count disputed votes and give him victory. Pennsylvania is lucky it didn’t become a national recount circus in 2020 or 2022, but it’s still a risk for 2024.”
PA: “Are we really going to let Pa.’s richest man buy a state Supreme Court seat?” [Will Bunch, Philadelphia Inquirer]. “the real high-stakes players — like Jeff Yass from the Philadelphia suburbs, whose bets that started with his college poker game and led to a major investment in TikTok have made him the richest man in the state — know where the real action is: state courts. The power wielded in places like the Pennsylvania Supreme Court — over important things like drawing congressional maps, funding schools, punishing polluters, rewarding tax evasion, or crimping worker power — is enormous. And those justices are elected here, as in other key states…. I doubt that Yass cares much about the issue making the most noise in this election — abortion rights — but I imagine he cares quite a bit about having a court that won’t rule for organized labor or against Big Oil and Gas. ProPublica recently chronicled how Yass aggressively fought to lower his taxes by an estimated $1 billion, even suing the IRS in federal court. If Yass’ tax strategies are ever litigated in Harrisburg, does he really desire judges “who apply the law as written” — or something else?”
VA: “Biden offers over a dozen endorsements in Virginia days before election” [The Hill]. “President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris announced nearly [23 endorsements for swing-district Democrat in] Virginia legislature seats on Saturday, just days before the state is set to vote in critical elections. Every seat of the Virginia legislature is up for grabs in 2023, with Democrats hoping to hold onto their tight state Senate margin and Republicans aiming to keep the state House… The election is also seen as a referendum on the leadership of Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-Va.), the popular governor who is rumored to be eying a future presidential campaign. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the group organizing state legislature races for Democrats, was grateful for the endorsements.” • We’ll know tomorrow!
Obama Legacy
If I were Biden, I wouldn’t want Obama muscling in:
For eight years, @POTUS and I worked to deliver change for the American people. I couldn’t have asked for a better Vice President and friend — and we’ll always be thankful to all the campaign staff and Administration alumni who helped bring that progress to folks across the… pic.twitter.com/MmLLTV8EB8
— Barack Obama (@BarackObama) November 5, 2023
After all, Obama gifted Biden the Presidency; who better than The Wizard of Kalorama to put his arm around Biden, stick a shiv in his side, and gently urge him from the stage?
Democrats en Déshabillé
Patient readers, it seems that people are actually reading the back-dated post! But I have not updated it, and there are many updates. So I will have to do that. –lambert
I have moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Party (“the Democrat Party is a rotting corpse that can’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated post, to which I will periodically add material, summarizing the addition here in a “live” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It turns out that defining the Democrat Party is, in fact, a hard problem. I do think the paragraph that follows is on point all the way back to 2016, if not before:
The Democrat Party is the political expression of the class power of PMC, their base (lucidly explained by Thomas Frank in Listen, Liberal!). It follows that the Democrat Party is as “unreformable” as the PMC is unreformable; if the Democrat Party did not exist, the PMC would have to invent it. If the Democrat Party fails to govern, that’s because the PMC lacks the capability to govern. (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” of course.) Second, all the working parts of the Party reinforce each other. Leave aside characterizing the relationships between elements of the Party (ka-ching, but not entirely) those elements comprise a network — a Flex Net? An iron octagon? — of funders, vendors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with assets in the press and the intelligence community.
Note, of course, that the class power of the PMC both expresses and is limited by other classes; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial model’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to mind. Suck up, kick down.
“Their Prophecy of Enduring Democratic Rule Fell Apart. They Blame College Grads.” [Politico]. “Once upon a time, Judis and Teixeira’s The Emerging Democratic Majority was hailed for having foreseen the rising minority and college-grad demographic combo that powered Barack Obama’s wins. But the political realignment that Democratic Beltway insiders simplistically took as a matter of faith never happened [see NC here]. And now the pair are back with [Where Have All the Democrats Gone?, ] a book grappling with what went wrong….. What happened? In Judis and Teixeira’s account, the 21st century party under-delivered on populist economics for working-class voters. But at the same time, it over-indexed for the cultural style that has jumped from campuses into the sorts of professions where expensively degreed folks predominate — including the constellation of Washington organizations, businesses and advocacy groups that help define a party’s public image.” • I’ve always wanted to use this meme:
Hey, now that Judis and Teixeira have totally flip-flopped on this, do you think the Acela Corridor will allow Thomas Frank back into the fold? Seeing as how he got it right first with Listen, Libera! in 2016, seven years ago? I’m guessing no, one reason being that Frank is a much better writer. (Sadly, Where Have All the Democrats Gone? is not yet up at Amazon, so I can’t search it for a mention of Frank.)
Realignment and Legitimacy
“Dump truck crashes into ballot box near Aurora church, sparking community concerns about voting rights” [Colorado Sun]. “The questions began Oct. 27 when a fully loaded dump truck struck and damaged a ballot box outside of a church in Aurora. The truck hit the ballot box so hard that it was ripped out of the concrete pad it was bolted into. The ballot box will not be replaced before Election Day, Nov. 7. ‘Is this a coincidence that shortly after the ballots are dropped, the ballot drop box gets damaged and removed and I’m a candidate for City Council at large, and it’s at my church with my name on the outside of the church and you can’t tell me who hit it and you cannot replace it until after the election?’ said Thomas Mayes, the pastor at Living Water Christian Center Church, where the box was removed…. The ballot box at the church has been an important part of his campaign messaging. He’s stated many times that he fought hard to have it placed there in 2019 to encourage people who don’t normally vote — such as people of color, older adults, Spanish-speaking community members and people who are homeless — to participate in elections.”
“Senate Judiciary Committee stalls amid partisan firestorm over Supreme Court subpoenas, court nominees” [Courthouse News]. “Judiciary Committee Chair Dick Durbin announced he would seek authorization to subpoena a trio of prominent conservative figures who Democrats say have had unethical relationships with justices of the Supreme Court. The committee has for months been investigating reports that some of the high court’s jurists failed to disclose high-dollar gifts from wealthy benefactors, including billionaire megadonors Harlan Crow and Robin Arkley, as well as conservative legal activist and Federalist Society founder Leonard Leo…. Graham, the panel’s ranking member, rehashed an argument now familiar among opponents of Democrats’ Supreme Court ethics inquiry: that any attempt to regulate business of the court would violate constitutional separation of powers.” • A transaction has two sides; I don’t see why we can’t regulate the “gift” giver without regulating the recipient. Now, if they subpoened Thomas, say, that would indeed be a bridge too far.
#COVID19
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Testing and Tracking
I apologize for the width, but that’s the only way to get everything on my screen. Detecting Long Covid with eye tests:
The links to the screen shots, in order: [1], [2], [3], and [4].
Transmission
“Ondine Biomedical’s Steriwave nasal photodisinfection platform now used across Canada” [Yahoo Finance (Carla)]. “The Queen Elizabeth II Health Sciences Centre in Halifax, affiliated with Dalhousie University, has adopted Steriwave, Ondine Biomedical’s infection prevention method, for use in orthopedic surgeries. This technology is designed to reduce the risk of post-surgical infections, a critical concern in healthcare settings. The company’s research highlights its ability to combat extensively drug-resistant microbes (XDR), an alarming threat to patient safety. Ondine’s platform effectively kills these microbes, creating a barrier against antimicrobial resistance. The implementation of Steriwave is particularly crucial as healthcare institutions worldwide grapple with concerns about antimicrobial resistance.” • True, the selling point isn’t SARS-CoV-2, but we know it kills that virus too.
“Something Awful”
Lambert here: I’m getting the feeling that the “Something Awful” might be a sawtooth pattern — variant after variant — that averages out to a permanently high plateau. Lots of exceptionally nasty sequelae, most likely deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we might add brain damage, including personality changes therefrom.
Elite Maleficence
Remember that you can still submit comments to HICPAC by 5PM today!
Here is the HICPAC schedule, so keep in mind that we still need to comment on their draft after tomorrow.
And without further adieu…. pic.twitter.com/9eVMseDtez
— Lazarus Long (@LazarusLong13) November 3, 2023
From this morning’s Links, here is a comment from alert reader Kael with a sample:
Just a reminder that you have until 5pm EST to submit public comments by e-mail the the CDC’s HICPAC regarding their draft masking guidance for healthcare settings [see yesterday’s Links]. The email address is: hicpac@cdc.gov. You are supposed to include your name, address, intuitional affiliation (“concerned citizen” or similar is acceptable).
Here is what I sent them:
Dear HICPAC Members and Staff,
Public Comment – HICPAC guidance on SARS-CoV2 infection control in heath care settings
I applaud the section of your draft guidelines that recommend N95 (or better) masks in some cases, e.g. for emerging pathogens. I have worked as a researcher for many year with clinical samples from patients and animals with idiopathic disease and unknown virological content. In these settings, my fellow researchers and I recognize that aerosol control is essential. We know this without any randomized trial that would expose randomly selected co-workers to novel viruses. I am sure that if you were working with an unidentified aerosolized virus, you would take precautions to ensure the safety of yourself, co-workers and ultimately your community. You would not cut corners, ignoring the solid aerosol science that our Personal Protective Equipment and laboratory equipment incorporates.
I am appalled that your recommendations, as applied to SARS-CoV2 aerosol controls, will fail to reduce SARS-CoV2 infection in healthcare settings. Available COVID vaccines to not effectively stop transmission of SARS-CoV2, are not utilized by large segments of the US population, and may not maintain their current efficacy given the rapid mutation of the virus and the proven fact that SARS-CoV2 persists and evolves in some patients for up to 18 months.
Similarly, the fact that there are pharmaceutical treatments available for acute-phase COVID, is not a reasonable basis to abandon sound infection control for this aerosol-transmitted virus. The CDC acknowledges that 19% of infected people have Long-COVID. Over the long haul, Long-COVID is likely to be a more significant burden on individuals and society as a whole than acute-phase COVID. There are no pharmaceutical treatments available for Long-COVID. It has been clear for years that each SARS-CoV2 infection carries a risk of Long-COVID. This risk is not mitigated by prior infection, vaccination or acute-phase treatment. Hence it is the duty of the healthcare community and HICPAC to reduce SARS-CoV2 transmission.
You obviously know that airborne transmission of pathogens is reduced with proper use of N95 masks. This is clear in your “extended air precautions” guidance. Therefore your guidance as it applies to SARS-CoV2, is clearly insufficient, and dare I say: negligent. If your draft guidance is approved without a strong recommendation for universal N95 use in healthcare settings it will result in a long-term burden to the healthcare system and the health and wellness of Americans.
Thank you for your attention,
Kael Fischer, PhD.
Department of Pathology, University of Utah – School of Medicine (retired)
For due diligence, I must say, even though every reader must know this: Don’t copy and paste this! Use it for inspiration.
Case Data
From BioBot wastewater data, November 6:
Lambert here: Cases up, just in time for Thanksgiving (and tinfoil hat time: This is the, er, inflection point CDC was trying to conceal when they gave the contract to Verily and didn’t ensure a seamless transition).
Regional data:
Everywhere!
NOTE I’m so happy to see that Biobot is back. I confess that I have not made a serious comparison of Biobot’s sample sets pre- and post-Verily. Nor to my knowledge has anyone. Readers?
Variants
NOT UPDATED From CDC, October 28:
Lambert here: Top of the leaderboard: HV.1, EG.5 a strong second, with FL.1.15.1 and XBB.1.1.16.6 trailing. No BA.2.86 (although that has showed up in CDC’s airport testing). Still a Bouillabaisse…
From CDC, October 14:
Lambert here: I sure hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart depends, don’t all move on the green fields and pastures new (or have their access to facilities cut by administrators of ill intent).
CDC: “As of May 11, genomic surveillance data will be reported biweekly, based on the availability of positive test specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring every two weeks. 2. occurring twice a week; semiweekly.” Looks like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to worry about. Time will tell.
Covid Emergency Room Visits
NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, October 28:
Lambert here: Flattening. Only a week’s lag, so this may be our best current nationwide, current indicator until Verily gets its house in order (and working class-centric, since I would doubt the upper crust goes to the ER).
NOTE “Charts and data provided by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the past year, using a rolling 52-week period.” So not the entire pandemic, FFS (the implicit message here being that Covid is “just like the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week period” is appropriate for bothMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these people so much. Notice also that this chart shows, at least for its time period, that Covid is not seasonal, even though CDC is trying to get us to believe that it is, presumably so they can piggyback on the existing institutional apparatus for injections.
Hospitalization
Bellwether New York City, data as of November 6:
Could be a slight decrease. Should be up in two weeks, though! (I hate this metric because the lag makes it deceptive, although the hospital-centric public health establishment loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the only metrics that matter [snort]).
NOT UPDATED Here’s a different CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, but with a date, at least. October 28:
Lambert here: “Maps, charts, and data provided by CDC, updates weekly for the previous MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Department Visits, Test Positivity) and weekly the following Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So where the heck is the update, CDC?
Positivity
From Walgreens, November 6:
-1.4%. But bouncing around. (It would be interesting to survey this population generally; these are people who, despite a tsunami of official propaganda and enormous peer pressure, went and got tested anyhow.)
NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, October 28:
Lambert here: Slight increase. I know this is just Ohio, but the Cleveland Clinic is good*, and we’re starved for data, so…. NOTE * Even if hospital infection control is trying to kill patients by eliminating universal masking with N95s.
NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s data, October 16:
Down, albeit in the rear view mirror. And here are the variants for travelers:
Sudden big BA.2.86 appearance. This variant chart has not been updated, which makes me wonder if CDC is gaming the data, and BA.2.86 is worse than we think.
Deaths
NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, September 27:
Lambert here: Dunno why no updates. I may have to drop this one, with great reluctance; I like my sources non-CDC.
Total: 1,181,531 –
1,181,289= 242 (242 * 365 = 88,330 deaths per year, today’s YouGenicist™ number for “living with” Covid (quite a bit higher than the minimizers would like, though they can talk themselves into anything. If the YouGenicist™ metric keeps chugging along like this, I may just have to decide this is what the powers-that-be consider “mission accomplished” for this particular tranche of death and disease).Excess Deaths
The Economist, November 5:
Lambert here: Based on a machine-learning model.
Stats Watch
There are no official statistics of interest today.
“Maersk cutting 10,000 jobs in face of ‘worsening market conditions’” [Freight Waves]. “Maersk began the year with 110,000 global employees. Year to date, it has cut 6,500 jobs, which it has not previously disclosed. It has now decided to cut a further 3,500 jobs, including 2,500 by year-end and 1,000 in 2024. The total reduction — 10,000 layoffs — will reduce global headcount by 9%. ‘This is not a diet. This is a reset of the baseline,’ said [Vincent Clerc, CEO of A.P. Moller-Maersk]. Job cuts will lead to restructuring charges of $350 million this year (up from the $150 million guidance announced in February) followed by $600 million in cost savings from lower compensation next year. It’s not just job cuts. Maersk said it is ‘considering all options to preserve cash.’ Capital expenditures (capex) will be slashed both this year and next year, and share buybacks could be halted next year.” • Hmm.
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 42 Fear (previous close: 41 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 30 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Nov 6 at 12:23:16 PM ET
Rapture Index: Closes up two: Anti-Semitism up one, Persia (Iran) up one, and Date Settings down one [Rapture Ready]. Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 187. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) NOTE on #42 Plagues: “The coronavirus pandemic has maxed out this category.” More honest than most! • The goat sacrificers are going to defile the Al Aqsa mosque, and the Rapture Index is down? I hardly had them in the contrarian box! UPDATE I guess the indexing lags. I can’t recall a jump of two, and if Date Settings hadn’t been down one, it would have been three!
The Gallery
A lovely Klimt:
I wonder if these are naiads.
Our Famously Free Press
News of the Wired
“Science reveals how not to spill your coffee while walking” [NBC]. “Coffee drinkers often attempt to walk quickly with their cups, as if they might manage to reach their destination before their sloshing java waves reach a critical height. This method is scientifically flawed. It turns out that the faster you walk, the closer your gait comes to the natural sloshing frequency of coffee. To avoid driving the oscillations that lead to a spillage, walk slowly.”
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