After a disappointing second half of 2023 for Ukraine’s war effort, the U.S. and Ukraine don’t fully agree about what to do next. Ukraine’s leaders would prefer to be aggressive and continue trying to retake territory that Russia holds. U.S. officials worry that approach is unrealistic.
But there are also signs of compromise — and potential consensus, as my colleagues have reported. In today’s newsletter, I’ll explain what the coming year could bring.
The big picture: Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, hopes that 2024 will be the year when the U.S. and Europe lose patience with the war and allow him to claim large parts of Ukraine permanently. “Putin is banking on the United States failing to deliver for Ukraine,” President Biden warned at the White House yesterday, while standing beside Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president.
If Russia gains the upper hand, it would be a blow to European democracy and a potential sign that the world has entered a new period of military aggression. Ukraine’s leaders and their allies hope they can prevent further Russian advances and inflict enough damage to make a stalemate seem like Putin’s best outcome.
The military situation
After Russia invaded in February 2022, Putin, and much of the world, expected that his military would quickly march to Kyiv and topple Ukraine’s government. That didn’t happen, but Russia did make significant advances. It now controls almost 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory, including the Crimea peninsula, which it seized in 2014.
The goal of Ukraine’s counteroffensive this past summer was to reclaim enough of that territory to cause Putin to fear that his forces were on the verge of collapse. That didn’t happen either. Ukrainian forces failed to break through Russia’s fortified lines in eastern and southern Ukraine, partly because Russia used drones, often supplied by Iran, to monitor Ukrainian attacks and respond quickly.
It was another example of an old military lesson: Seizing territory in war is far harder than holding it.
Still, Ukrainians did have one meaningful accomplishment in recent months. They battered Russian ships in Crimea. As my colleagues Julian Barnes, Eric Schmitt, David Sanger and T.M. Gibbons-Neff write:
It was, some officials said, a major naval victory by a country without a navy.
Longer-range British Storm Shadow missiles significantly damaged targets in Crimea. On Sept. 22, a hail of Storm Shadow missiles struck the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. Days later, Russia withdrew parts of the fleet from Crimea.
The operations allowed Ukraine to export grain from Odesa and kept some shipping lanes open, a critical victory, but they changed little in the overall course of the war and did not allow Ukraine to retake any territory.
Ukraine’s leaders still hope to reclaim territory in 2024. U.S. officials think that a more realistic aim may be to prevent Russia from making advances while Ukraine rebuilds its battered military — and launches more attacks like those in Crimea. Targets could include arms factories, weapons depots and train lines for moving munitions.
As Julian, Eric, David and T.M. explain, “The goal would be to create enough of a credible threat that Russia might consider engaging in meaningful negotiations at the end of next year or in 2025.”
The political risks
Zelensky spent yesterday in Washington, meeting with Biden and members of Congress, hoping to persuade them to continue sending his country weapons, vehicles, ammunition and other equipment. Without continued U.S. aid, Ukraine could run out of important items next year.
Biden and most Democrats in Congress support the additional aid. Many Republicans do as well but say they will approve it only if the legislation includes measures to reduce the surge of illegal immigration during Biden’s presidency. The bill would also include aid for Israel and Taiwan.
Zelensky’s presence in Washington underscores his fear that American support is fragile. While polls show that most Americans support continued aid to Ukraine, many Republican voters do not. Donald Trump has suggested that if he returned to the White House in January 2025, he might cut off aid and pressure Ukraine to negotiate a settlement. Putin seems to be hoping for such an outcome.
Western Europe’s support is also less than solid. Hungary is poised to veto an E.U. aid package, and Germany’s government is struggling to fund its own pledge. “Some senior European defense officials quietly acknowledge that the weapons and ammunition that Europe is currently sending to the war can’t match what Ukraine is burning through,” my colleague Lara Jakes, who is reporting the story from Europe this week, told me. “That means Ukraine could run out of some weapons early next year if the United States fails to approve the additional aid.”
As Matthew Kaminski writes in Politico, “Putin thinks the West is dissolute and will come apart on its own.”
Many U.S. and European officials, including strong supporters of Ukraine, believe that a negotiated settlement is the only plausible outcome in the end. But there is a big difference between a settlement based on the possibility that Ukraine could collapse and one based on the expectation of a protracted stalemate.
Related: Read more about Putin’s bet for outlasting Ukraine and its allies.
More on Ukraine
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Last year, Congress hailed Zelensky as a hero. This year, Republicans told him Ukraine’s challenges were not their focus.
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More than $75 billion in cash and equipment: Here’s what the United States has given Ukraine so far, and what it still has to offer.
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Russia bombarded Kyiv for the third time in a week. Ukraine said it had shot down all the missiles, but that debris wounded dozens.
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A cyberattack on Ukraine’s largest mobile operator interrupted service. Many Ukrainians rely on phone alerts to warn of Russian strikes.
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Since the beginning of the war, Russia has lost a staggering number of troops, U.S. intelligence shows.
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