Those who pay a wee bit of attention to Israel’s conduct over many years may have noticed its tendency to use major news events in the US as cover for Doing Things that might otherwise generate well-warranted press criticism or even some official pushback. The fact that there hasn’t been any apparent Israel Surprise, big or small, during the weeks of the press being dominated by the debate over Biden’s political future, and now the Trump assassination attempt, suggest that Israel is already just as far as it can go up its escalation ladder with Palestine, ex nuclear war.
Mind you, the above statement is not to deny that absolutely terrible things are happening daily in Gaza and the West Bank. But the horrors have been so frequent, even with new sadism of the infliction of starvation, that observers have become numbed to them. Admittedly, by cutting power (and thus the ability to get images out of Gaza) and systematically killing journalists, Israel has succeeded in choking the chronicling of the genocide, which also means casual news watchers (who might be more susceptible to reacting to fresh outrages) have less fodder for outrage.
One might argue that the fresh Israel attack on al-Mawasi, a designated safe zone in Gaza, which killed over 90, so heinous as to elicit Palestinian general strikes in many West Bank cities, was an effort to take advantage of the Presidential election upheaval in the US. As has also become common, the Israeli strike was a so-called double tap, where Israel first bombed the target, then hit a second time so as to kill first responders.
But after Israel destroying hospitals and even torturing doctors, it’s hard to see this heinous act as much of an escalation, save perhaps for the intelligence-insulting justification. Israel claimed it was after Palestinian commander Muhammad Deif, but even Netanyahu has said it has not confirmed he was killed.
And the event du jour is Israel flattening a UN school:
I think this child survived.
Israel just bombed a UN school in Nusairat refugee camp and buried more children under rubble.
Gaza is a constant daily massacre. Please don’t let the media distract you with propaganda about other events.
Keep focused. Keep sharing. pic.twitter.com/nEaSUns8i3
— Khalissee (@Kahlissee) July 14, 2024
To widen the frame just a smidge, the Lancet analysis that at least 186,000 Palestinians have died in Gaza has, in keeping, also been under-reported.
A new piece in the Lancet estimates Gaza deaths at 186 000. That would be 7-9% of the population in 9 months. https://t.co/yCyyVhtWiS pic.twitter.com/IV2NDbTsZe
— Ben Phillips (@benphillips76) July 7, 2024
Scott Ritter went through typical ratios of buried dead to other deaths when buildings are destroyed, and argued the Lancet had used the low end of the range. He thought total deaths of 250,000 were more plausible and much higher numbers entirely possible.
Instead they maimed and killed many civilians, including children, which as Lambert faux-blandly noted, seemed to be the point. And of course genocide is the point. We’ve read and heard innumerable statements from Israeli officials and ordinary citizens about how all Palestinians are combatants and/or subhuman, and so entirely deserve to be exterminated.
One could argue that a new Israel act under the cover of the US presidential race mayhem is that Israel has finalized its annexation of the West Bank. But that might not be sexy, erm, nauseating enough to merit much press notice even in less turbulent times. And the perp, Ben Smotrich, is so persistently defiant of US opinion that I doubt he gives our news cycles much mind. From Haaretz in Smotrich Has Completed Israel’s Annexation of the West Bank:
A few days ago, the constitutional revolution was completed, but no, not in Israel. Few were aware of it, but the Ben-Gvir-Smotrich-Netanyahu government has conspired to carry out two coups – one in Israel and the other in the West Bank….
Quietly, without any ceremonies or press announcements, Yehuda Fuchs, the head of the army’s Central Command (and the commander of Israeli forces in the West Bank), signed an order creating a new position in the army’s Civil Administration, “deputy head for civilian affairs” and the Civil Administration’s head signed a document delegating powers to the holder of the new office.
But the “deputy” is in fact a civilian appointed by Smotrich and is in no way a deputy because he is not subordinate to the head of the Civil Administration. He needs no approval for his actions, is not required to consult with or report to him. He is subordinate alone to Smotrich.
The order and the letter of delegation of powers transferred most – in fact almost all – of the powers held by the head of the Civil Administration to the new deputy. Land management, planning and construction, enforcement against unpermitted construction, supervision and management of local authorities, professional licensing, trade and economy, management of nature reserves and archaeological sites…
In order to understand how dramatic this change is, one should realize what international law was trying to achieve when it determined that occupied territory should be managed by a military government.
International law regulates a state of occupation as a temporary management of the territory by the occupier, and it categorically prohibits its unilateral annexation. This is not just another prohibition, but a key principle meant to cement the principle which precludes the use of force in international relations except in self-defense. If it is clear sovereignty cannot be acquired by force, there will be less motivation for embarking on a war of aggression. In other words, this prohibition on unilateral annexation of an occupied territory principle is at the core of the international rule-based order established after World War II, that in its heart lies the desire to eradicate wars. The purpose of determining that an occupied territory will be managed by a temporary military administration, and not directly by the occupying government, was to create a buffer between the citizens of the occupying country, who are its sovereign, and the ruling apparatus in the occupied territory.
But despite the ever rising toll of death and destruction in Gaza, Israel’s success in exterminating or otherwise ethnically cleansing the Palestinian population is not coming quickly enough, at least for its citizens. Alastair Crooke has stressed that Israel’s premise, of being a haven where Jews could everywhere be safe, was shattered by October 7. Not only has it not been restored, it is unlikely ever to be restored.
The pretext for the extermination in Gaza was to, as Netanyahu vowed, to eliminate Hamas. Many pointed out that could never happen, that more Hamas fighters would enlist and replace the ones lost. But more important than external opinion is increasing confirmation in Israel. For instance, from CNN in late June:
Israel’s top military spokesman has said Hamas cannot be made to “disappear,” casting doubt about whether the government’s war aim of defeating the militant group can be achieved and drawing a sharp rebuke from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“The idea that it is possible to destroy Hamas, to make Hamas vanish — that is throwing sand in the eyes of the public,” Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said Wednesday in an interview with Israel’s Channel 13.
The IDF kinda-sorta walked that back, but the point was made.
More generally, as many Western military commentators have pointed out, Israel and the US are both set up to wage high intensity, airpower dominated, relatively short conflicts. Hamas (and Hezbollah and Iran) all understand that, and so went well underground and set themselves up to wage a war of attrition.
Despite the appearance of cohesion and normalcy in key centers (think of Kiev until recently as an analogue), there are plenty of cracks beneath the surface: the departure of some Israelis over the war (generally Ashkenazis, including skilled, readily employable IT workers), the refusal of the ultra-religious to serve in the military, the failure of the government to secure the release of most hostages, and Hezbollah’s continues shelling of northern Israel. Israel has been threatening for months to attack Lebanon, with hardliners strutting that they will push Hezbollah to the Litani River. In fact, Israel only barely got there in its failed 2006 war, planting a flag for a photo and quickly running away. And everyone watching this war who also possesses an operating brain cell, above all IDF leaders, know that Hezbollah is much more powerful than in 2006 and Israel is not. So many commentators believe that the reason for the continuing saber-rattling is that Israel leaders are confident that the US would join a war with Lebanon, even though the head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Charles Brown cleared his throat to state otherwise. In a potentially more convincing communication, the US also said Ukraine was the top priority customer for new Patriot missile deliveries, and asked Israel to turn over eight (admittedly stockpiled) Patriot batteries to Ukraine.
One has to wonder if Netanyahu and the hardliners continue to talk up launching a war with Lebanon to try to wear down the IDF, or whether instead this is actually an empty formula to try to placate the angry, displaced border area settlers.The recent dustup with Iran over the Israel attack on Iran’s consular premises demonstrated conclusively how vulnerable Israel is. Iran agreed to hit only pre-identified targets and sent a big wave of slow-moving drones to announce it was coming. Even with all that notice, Iran was still able to penetrate Israeli defenses and take out military assets at these highly defended sites. So if Israel (with US and French assistance) can’t protect itself in textbook perfect circumstances, how will it do in a bare knuckle conflict?
In another proof of US weakness, the Houthis continue to wreak havoc in sea lanes and the US has spent a lot of money in not subduing them:
‼️ During its failed #OperationWhackAMole in the Red Sea region, the USS Eisenhower carrier strike group owns up to the expenditure of at least 770 precision-guided munitions of various types!
Now the USS Roosevelt CSG is rushing there to expend hundreds more.#TheBigAttrition https://t.co/efmLYMRdaf
— Will Schryver (@imetatronink) July 15, 2024
And Israel’s economy continues to suffer. From Middle East Monitor last week:
Some 40,000 Israeli companies have closed their doors since October, amid expectations that the number will rise to 60,000 by the end of the year, Israel’s Maariv newspaper said yesterday.
The Israeli paper cited data from the CEO of business information company CofaceBDI, Yoel Amir, saying: “This is a very high number that includes many sectors.”
The vast majority, 77 per cent, of the companies are small businesses which are most vulnerable.
He pointed out that the most affected sectors are construction and related industries such as ceramics, air conditioning, aluminium and building materials.
While trade, including fashion, furniture and household appliances and the service sector, including cafes, entertainment and entertainment services, and transportation have also been hit hard.
Tourism has been severely impacted by the war with almost non-existent foreign tourism, along with the decline in national mood.
“The damage in combat zones is more serious, but the damage to businesses is across the country, with almost no sector spared,” Amir noted….
“Apart from companies closing their doors, there has been a sharp decline in corporate activity in various sectors since the beginning of the war,” he added.
And some prominent individuals are speaking out. From TurkiyeToday:
Former Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said Monday that Israeli soldiers are having nightmares, the economy is collapsing and diplomacy is eroding.
“Nine months have passed since the deadly surprise attack by Hamas on the state of Israel and its people, and it seems as though nothing has changed within the Israeli leadership,” Lieberman wrote in an article published on the Israeli news site Walla.
“Children and adults, soldiers, and reservists are suffering from nightmares about what has happened and what might happen. The Israeli economy is collapsing, and Israeli diplomacy is eroding,” the leader of the right-wing opposition Yisrael Beiteinu Party said.
Lieberman also addressed tensions between Israel and the Lebanese group Hezbollah, saying: “The north is desolate and scorched; Iran continues to arm itself; and while all this is happening, the corrupt government continues as if nothing has happened.”
Israel seems to have become a hostage to its vision of itself, above all its sense of divine entitlement to Biblical lands and to subjugate, expel, or exterminate its inhabitants. Israel has managed the difficult task of uniting not just its neighbors but now the entire world against it, and remains defiant even as its sponsor is visibly enfeebled and overcommitted.
So even if Netanyahu, in his speech to Congress next week, gets his expected record level of applause and again tells us how to run our foreign policy, the US does not have the resources to make commitments to change Israel’s trajectory. The time it will take to have largely exterminated the Palestinians is more than it has. Yet Israel, like many old people, insists on being even more of who it always was no matter what the longevity cost.