The Threat of More War

This week was supposed to bring a rare moment of amity in the Middle East. Iran inaugurated a new president, and its regional rival, Saudi Arabia, dispatched a royal to Tehran with a jovial letter from its king, sending his best wishes. The United Arab Emirates, attacked by the Iranian-backed Houthis just two years ago, published photos of its smiling foreign minister shaking hands with Iranian officials. And a White House spokesman had said that a cease-fire deal in Gaza was “close.”

Instead, the region now seems to be even further away from peace. Yesterday, Iran and Hamas accused Israel of killing Ismail Haniyeh, one of the most senior leaders of Hamas, while he was in Tehran. (Haniyeh was Hamas’s lead negotiator in cease-fire talks to end the Gaza war, which began with the Oct. 7 attacks.) The day before, Israel killed a leader of Hezbollah in Beirut after a rocket launched from Lebanon had killed 12 children in Israeli-occupied territory.

Diplomats around the world are telling these parties to keep a lid on it. And the groups themselves say they do not want a wider regional war. Israel’s defense minister repeated the message on Wednesday. Iran has said the same thing, and so has Hezbollah. (Hamas has said it wants a wider war, but it is depleted from nearly 10 months of conflict in Gaza.)

Yet the violence persists, as each party claims its attacks are reactions to previous ones. That’s why, in the span of a few months, Israeli bombs have hit Lebanon, Syria, Iran and Yemen. It’s why Hezbollah and Houthi fighters have repeatedly targeted Israel (and also ships passing through the Red Sea, disrupting global trade). It’s why American airstrikes have pummeled Yemen for nearly seven months.

The reality

When I speak to sources in the Middle East, they often struggle to process this contradiction. To them, the calls for peace during what already looks like a regional war can sound strange. Bader Al-Saif, a historian at Kuwait University, lamented “the amount of denialism surrounding this basic fact.” Pretending as if the actual conflict is yet to arrive, he said, risks “normalizing death, violence, fear, dispossession, hunger and lack of dignity across the Middle East.”

True, de-escalation may be wanted — and it may even be possible. Analysts say that Iran and Hezbollah, despite vengeful rhetoric, could keep their responses measured. Israeli assassinations abroad are nothing new, and some top Israeli generals believe a truce, not more war, would free captives still held by Hamas. Israel could seek to limit its response to any counterattack by Iran. Antony Blinken, the U.S. secretary of state, said yesterday that he was still intent on reaching a cease-fire in Gaza.