Hezbollah Weighs Risks of Backlash at Home in War With Israel

A day after the assassination of a senior commander of the Lebanese militant faction Hezbollah, the group vowed to retaliate against Israel. More than two weeks later, however, the response has not come as Hezbollah strikes a delicate balance between the vengeance it seeks and the risks of a backlash at home.

Lebanon is already deep in turmoil from a yearslong political and economic crisis, and its citizens are tired of strife. The country has careened from one crisis to the next since a 15-year civil war broke out in 1975. And if Hezbollah ends up in another punishing war with Israel now, the nation could well turn against it.

The Lebanese state is made up of a multitude of factions and sects and it has been controlled for years by an ineffectual caretaker government. Hezbollah, an Iran-backed Shiite Muslim group, is both part of that coalition government and considered the real power underpinning Lebanon.

As the dominant political and military force in the entire country, Hezbollah has everything to lose and knows it must tread carefully.

The group has cemented its position over the last three decades after outmaneuvering its domestic foes in a political system that divides power by sect. The group has amassed a large and potent arsenal and is more powerful than the national military. It controls or has oversight of the country’s most important infrastructure. And it has lifted up its constituents in the process, empowering, enriching and providing services to Shiites in Lebanon, a historically marginalized sect.

Many of Lebanon’s Shiites now benefit from a plethora of services run by Hezbollah, including quality health care, free education and even a boy scouts program. Meanwhile, a broken and broke Lebanese state struggles to provide even the most basic services, such as electricity, for all its citizens. And no other political party has the funds or organization to provide for their own sect as well as Hezbollah.