With Hezbollah-Israel Conflict Contained, Iran’s Next Move May Be Modest

As rockets and missiles streaked across Lebanese and Israeli skies on Sunday, the moment people across the region lived in fear of seemed as if it might have arrived: all-out war.

But very quickly, Israel and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah wrapped up their exchange, with both claiming victory and signaling that the fighting — for now, at least — was done.

That ambiguous result, however, revealed something: Neither Hezbollah nor its regional patron, Iran, has found a better way to respond to embarrassing Israeli strikes in a way that could both warn Israel off another attack, yet not provoke an even bigger war that could be devastating for them.

Iran’s response — if it comes — remains an unknown, and Tehran could still choose a course of action that regional observers have not predicted. But Hezbollah’s choice to stick to a limited attack is an option some regional experts now think may reflect plans from Iran, as it considers how to settle its own score with Israel.

“The Iranians keep dropping hints about striking a target with precision,” said Mohammed Ali Shabani, an Iran analyst and editor of an independent regional website, Amwaj.media. “Precision and proportion is now key to how we look at this.”

Just a few weeks ago, the region was — once again — in an extraordinarily precarious position, months after Israel launched its deadly Gaza war in response to the Hamas-led Oct. 7 attacks.