Yves here. While this post by Thomas Neuburger extensively quotes an interview of former Lt. Colonel Larry Wilkerson by Andrew Napolitano, I don’t see the inference drawn here, of a coup, as correct. Yes, narrowly speaking, the Biden climbdown and anger is apparently due to him being told “no” by the US military. But this is not defiance in the sense that Neuburger appears to appreciate. Biden has repeatedly made very loud statement to the effect that “We’re the United States. We have the most powerful military in the world. There is no limit as to what we can do.”
An alternate view is that someone managed to get through Biden’s thick skull that the US could not win against either Russia or Iran (the latter has been a finding of repeated war games) in a conventional war, and the consequences of the US escalating and losing would be worse than backing off. Another confirmation of this theory is that other reports suggest Jake Sullivan supported the US military’s position, meaning Biden had opposition from key members of his team, and not just the armed forces.
However, a different way of squaring this circle is to recognize the US presidents have not, for a very long time, been much in charge of US foreign policy. In the Oliver Stone documentary which presented roughly four hours of interviews with Putin, Putin described how Bush had made commitments to him which would have greatly improved US-Russia relations, only to go silent when Russia followed up and then issue a bafflegabish written reversal, IIRC 18 months later. Putin saw similar inability to deliver on negotiated proposals by later Presidents. He concluded the bureaucracy was running the show.
A test of the Wilkerson and Neuburger thesis is whether the US eventually authorizes long-range missile strikes on Russia. That happening would disprove the Neuburger thesis, but continued refusal to do so is not dispositive proof otherwise. It must be pointed out that the explanation offered by Lloyd Austin, that Russia had moved worthwhile military targets, as in aircraft, out of range, is likely true. Note that Simplicius points out in a new piece that the successful attack on the Tver ammo storage facilities were done by jet drones and the facility was in fact out of range of ATACMS or Storm Shadow missiles.
By Thomas Neuburger. Originally published at God’s Spies
The President shall be Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy
—Constitution of the United States, Article 2, Section 2
I found the following news via a piece at Ian Welsh’s site, and it struck me as important. While I don’t want to overplay what it implies, I don’t want to underplay it either.
An American Coup?
In a 30-minute interview with Judge Napolitano on September 18, Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, former chief of staff to Secretary of State Colin Powell and critic of America’s wars, described a recent event in which Pentagon chief Gen. Lloyd Austin told President Biden that, in Wilkerson’s words, “the Pentagon has taken over, essentially, diplomacy as well as any action, militarily speaking, with regard to both theaters of war,” meaning Ukraine and Israel.
Wilkerson added, “And so they’re now in charge.” Austin, according to this telling, listened “to the people in the bowels of the Pentagon who know the truth” and forced the President to back down.
Biden was furious, we’re told, but “took that advice.” Except, as Wilkerson tells it, it wasn’t advice, but instruction. “No dice,” as Wilkerson characterized the message, sounds pretty final.
This is good news and bad news. The good, U.S. policy is now:
- To Netanyahu, if you invade Lebanon or attack Iran, you’re on your own.
- To Zelenskyy, no to long range missiles reaching deep into Russia.
So we and the world are safer, at least for a while.
The bad: Is this a coup? Has the military stood up to the President, forced him to change policy?
If the answers are yes, we’re on our way once more to revising the Constitution-as-practiced. Both political parties have already confirmed that the Fourth Amendment can be ignored. That’s now the “new normal.” So what’s this encroachment of the Pentagon into foreign policy, if not another “new normal”? Has MacArthur finally won?
Whatever the truth, you won’t see this reported in what people call the “news,” but I doubt Wilkerson’s sources are wrong. At any rate, we’ll know soon enough by the way Zelenskyy and Netanyahu act.
Welcome to the future of U.S. foreign policy.
The Wilkerson Exchange in Full
The video at the top contains the full Wilkerson interview, cued to start at the conversation about Austin and Biden. I’ve also printed that exchange below, lightly edited. Emphasis is that of the speaker.
Wilkerson: I think what we’re seeing here is another attempt, because a 100-plane strike didn’t do it, by Netanyahu to provoke Hezbollah to some sort of action that he can then declare is warlike to the extent that he can do what he wants to do with them — even though I’m told with great confidence in the sources that the latest two visits by the Central Command Unified Commander were to tell him [Netanyahu] that we would not be with him in the event of his going to war with Hezbollah that he provoked. Nor will we be with him going to war with Iran that he provoked. And we made it quite clear that we would know if he provoked it.
Napolitano: You’re speaking of General Kurilla [CENTCOM commander since April 2022].
Wilkerson: Yes. Yes.
Napolitano: So Scott Ritter agrees with you, Doug Macgregor says he can’t imagine Austin and Blinkin letting General Kuralla do that. It’s very very interesting. … Is this speculation on your part or is it based on sources?
Wilkerson: It’s based on some pretty reliable sources. And here’s the bigger picture and I hope the others told you this too. Biden’s fury — and you could see it — he was seething when he met with the British Prime Minister.
Napolitano: Yes, yes, we have that clip. He was out of control with anger.
Wilkerson: And what he [had] just been told, apparently, was by the Pentagon, “No dice, Mr President. No dice on Ukraine and no dice on Gaza. We’re in charge now.”
Napolitano: No dice. You’re talking about no dice on the long range missiles reaching deep into Russia, even though Tony Blinkin had intimated all week in Kyiv with his British counterpart that this was happening. And Sir Keir Stormer, the British Prime Minister, had every reason to believe as he’s flying across the Atlantic that Joe Biden’s answer would be yes.
Wilkerson: He was embarrassed. He was embarrassed by the fact — he was pulling out his maps with target data and Biden told him, “Don’t even pull them out. We’re not going to talk about that.”
I’ve been told, again by fairly reliable sources, that Blinkin and Sullivan — Blinkin primarily, but Sullivan too — have been sidetracked, and what’s happened is the Pentagon has taken over, essentially, diplomacy as well as any action, militarily speaking, with regard to both theaters of war.
And so they’re now in charge.
I have to change my evaluation of Secretary Austin if that’s the case, because it means he listened finally to the people in the bowels of the Pentagon who know the truth, and he’s reacting to that, and he’s told the President Biden that, and to Biden’s credit, even though he was furious, he finally took that advice.
Napolitano: Colonel, you once ran the State Department [as Secretary Colin Powell’s chief of staff under George Bush]. How does the Defense Department engage in diplomacy?
Wilkerson: They engage in diplomacy every day. Every day. There are four-stars in the various syncdoms, the regions that they control, the AORs [Areas of Responsibility] [who] are the true U.S. diplomats. And some of them are very good at it. I saw some of them. I worked with some of them who are very good at it, better than any Secretary of State.
But it shouldn’t be that way. That’s a parenthetical remark. We shouldn’t have the military leading diplomacy. But we often do.
And the Japanese prime minister once told me why to my face. He said, “Larry, when your East Asia and Pacific Assistant Secretary comes out here, he’s not got anything but his briefcase. When the man from Honolulu comes out here, from Camp Smith in Hawaii, he’s towing air wings, submarines, battle groups, Marine amphibious groups, Army divisions. I listened to him. This is the Prime Minister of Japan.
Napolitano: Who told General Kurilla to tell Prime Minister Netanyahu, “If you invade Lebanon, you’re on your own?”
Wilkerson: It was, I think, Austin. But that’s the chain of command. Austin conveyed that message to him [Kurilla]. But I think it was Austin that convinced Biden to give him that command so he could transmit it to Kurilla.
