Once again, abortion access has won a victory at the polls.
Yes, last night’s victory was merely a procedural one. Voters in Ohio soundly rejected a Republican-backed attempt to raise the threshold for changing the state’s Constitution to 60 percent in a ballot initiative. A follow-up election will take place in November, in which Ohio voters will decide whether to establish a right to abortion in the state’s Constitution. A simple majority will decide the outcome.
But last night’s result was still significant. Ohio is an increasingly conservative state, which Donald Trump won by eight percentage points in 2020 and where state legislators voted to ban almost all abortions (a policy that a judge has blocked for now). And yet voters rejected a ballot proposal that everybody understood was meant to help restrict abortion. It wasn’t close, either. The proposal failed, 43 percent to 57 percent, according to the latest count.
Ohio becomes the fourth red state, along with Kansas, Kentucky and Montana, to have voted on the abortion-rights side of a referendum since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last summer.
You can read more coverage of the Ohio vote here. In today’s newsletter, we look at the other states where the abortion issue may go before voters.
A slow start
Ohio is one of 10 states that both significantly restricts abortion (or soon might) and allows citizen-sponsored ballot initiatives. The others are Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.
All of these states except for Arizona voted Republican in the 2020 presidential election, a sign that many of their voters favor significant abortion restrictions. Consider these results from a recent Times/Siena College nationwide poll:
Still, a ballot initiative establishing abortion access would have a chance to pass in any of the 10 states. That’s one of the lessons of the Ohio result. Abortion-rights measures tend to receive overwhelming support from Democratic voters and some support from Republicans.
Yet there is an important caveat to abortion’s political potency: The issue does not appear to swing most general elections. In statewide elections in Florida, Ohio, Texas and elsewhere last year, Democrats tried to defeat Republicans by emphasizing their hostility to abortion. But most Republicans — Mike DeWine and J.D. Vance in Ohio, Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio in Florida, Greg Abbott in Texas — won easily. At best, the Supreme Court decision helped Democrats in a limited number of very close midterm elections.
How could this be? Most voters care about many issues. And on several other high-profile issues today, like public safety and border security, the Democratic Party is arguably as out of step with public opinion as the Republican Party is on abortion. (This is a theme of Ruy Teixeira’s recent writings for the Liberal Patriot newsletter on Substack).
At least for now, ballot initiatives — as opposed to ousting otherwise popular Republican politicians — appear to be one of the few ways for advocates to expand abortion access in conservative states. Abortion rights groups got off to a slow start after the Supreme Court’s decision, as we explained in a previous newsletter. The groups have struggled to agree on a nationwide strategy or to commit to an ambitious timetable.
As a result, only a few of the 10 states appear likely to vote on abortion soon.
Next up: the Sun Belt
Ohio is the only state that will vote on the issue this year. Here’s a state-by-state breakdown for 2024 and beyond:
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The effort in Florida, where DeSantis signed a six-week abortion ban in April, is the furthest along. Organizers are on track to gather more than enough signatures to place the measure on the ballot next year. The measure would amend the state’s Constitution to legalize abortion until fetal viability (typically around 23 weeks of pregnancy) or later if the mother’s health is in danger. Florida law requires all citizen-initiated constitutional amendments to receive 60 percent of the popular vote to pass.
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In Arizona, abortion-rights groups released their proposed constitutional amendment yesterday, and it is similar to Florida’s. Legal challenges and an expensive drive to collect signatures are likely, but advocates are optimistic. Chris Love, an official with Planned Parenthood Advocates of Arizona, told us that advocates conducted polls to determine which version of an initiative would have the best chance of passing. “We wanted to see where our electorate was,” she said.
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In Missouri, advocates have filed multiple versions of a potential constitutional amendment. Republican officials are analyzing those versions slowly, seemingly in an attempt to keep the issue off the ballot next year.
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In South Dakota, which has a near-total abortion ban, a local group has proposed a measure that would prohibit any restrictions during the first trimester (through about 13 weeks of pregnancy). But the local Planned Parenthood affiliate doesn’t support the measure, believing it does not go far enough.
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Efforts have made relatively little progress in Arkansas, Nebraska, North Dakota or Oklahoma. The same is true in Montana, although abortion remains legal there, despite state officials’ attempts to restrict it.
The campaigns in Arizona and Florida are worth watching for reasons beyond abortion policy. Democrats hope that the excitement over the initiatives could lift President Biden’s re-election chances in both states and play a role in Arizona’s Senate race.
For more
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