Climate change will likely make hurricanes stronger and cause them to hit the U.S. East and Gulf Coast more often in upcoming decades, according to a new study published Friday.
In fact, scientists said that should the current level of warming continue, the frequency of U.S. hurricane hits could rise by one-third when compared with what we’re seeing now.
The study is especially noteworthy because historically, scientists have had difficulty linking human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and global warming to hurricane intensity and frequency.
It was led by researchers from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and published in the peer-reviewed journal Science Advances.
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Upper atmospheric wind changes – caused by warming ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean – are what will lead to the expected increase in hurricane frequency along the coastlines, the study said.
A ‘double-whammy effect’
“What we found is that these wind changes have a double-whammy effect,” said lead author and climate scientist Karthik Balaguru of the PNNL. “First, they steer storms closer to the U.S. East and Gulf coasts, which brings risk to the people who live there.
“But these same wind changes also reduce vertical wind shear near the coast, and that will ultimately strengthen coastal storms. When these two factors work together, it exacerbates the whole problem,” he said.
While other research has focused on how human-caused global warming will impact the frequency, strength and moisture of hurricanes, this study looks more at where the storms are going.
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Steering currents are the key
Changes in upper-air steering currents are projected to “push the storms closer to the U.S.,” Balaguru said. The steering currents move from south to north along the Gulf of Mexico; on the East Coast, the normal west-to-east steering is lessened considerably and can be more east-to-west, he added.
Central and southern portions of the Florida Peninsula are particularly vulnerable in this scenario, researchers said.
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New climate model used
The study was based on sophisticated climate and hurricane simulations, which included a new model known as “RAFT” (Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones). According to a PNNL news release, “the advantage of RAFT lies in its ability to unravel the many factors that shape hurricanes, from the winds that steer storms to the warm waters from which they draw power.
“Meant to be combined with other climate models, it can also generate many simulated storms, which makes robust statistical analyses possible.”
Research makes sense, but has limits
Other scientists not involved with the study said the research makes sense, but has limits and is missing some factors.
It doesn’t factor in where storms are born, which is important, and the study assumes a global trend toward more El Niño events, said Jhordanne Jones, an atmospheric scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and Purdue University’s Climate Extreme Weather Lab.
Most climate simulations project more El Niños, which is a natural warming of the central Pacific that alters weather worldwide and dampens Atlantic hurricane activity. But recent observations “suggest a more La Niña- like state,” she said.
Contributing: The Associated Press