Crime on the decline

In the chaotic early months of the Covid pandemic, when the U.S. was also going through the aftermath of George Floyd’s murder, violent crime rose across the country. Murders in 2020 increased at the fastest rate since national statistics began in 1960. Other crimes, like shootings and car thefts, also increased.

The surge in violence left some experts worried that the U.S. might be entering another era of high crime, similar to that of the 1960s through the ’90s.

But the data over the past year has offered a much more optimistic picture. The number of murders in U.S. cities fell by more than 12 percent — which would be the biggest national decline on record. The spike that started in 2020 now looks more like a blip, and the murder rate is lower than it was during the 1970s, ’80s and ’90s. The recent data also suggests that the violent-crime rate in 2023 was near its lowest level in more than 50 years, as Jeff Asher, a crime analyst, wrote for his newsletter.

Fading shocks

To understand why murders and other crimes have declined, it’s useful to look at the likely causes of the increase: the pandemic and the fallout from Floyd’s killing by the police.

Covid, of course, upended American life in 2020 and 2021, including in ways that affected crime: Police officers stopped some forms of in-person contact, and more illness contributed to staffing shortages at police departments. Schools, which help keep teens out of trouble, shut down. Some social services and other anti-violence programs also had to scale back.