As Project Ukraine continues to collapse, European countries are losing their enthusiasm to host Ukrainian nearly six million refugees and in many cases, are now nudging them to return to their war-torn country.
Estonia appears to be the most zealous in this regard, talking about some sort of repatriation agreement with Ukraine, but it looks like Tallinn was informed that would be problematic.
The EU’s Temporary Protection for Ukrainians
In September, the EU extended its Temporary Protection Directive by one year, until March 4, 2025. In theory, it allows Ukrainians to get work, plus access to education, housing and medical assistance, but it is temporary. As Zeynep Şahin Mencütek, a senior researcher at the Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies, wrote shortly after the war began:
Temporary protection status makes a huge difference. It means they live with constant ambiguity about their future and it makes for challenging encounters with local people and officials of the hosting state. Temporary protection means that migrants live under the constant fear of repatriation when the host state – or the EC – decides the country of origin has become safe and secure…
What we have learned from past use of temporary protection schemes is that they serve the interests of the host states, not those of the people fleeing danger. Temporary protection makes it easier for states to repatriate asylum seekers because they do not grant refugee status and do not commit to hosting or integrating asylum seekers permanently.
Mencütek also notes how temporary protection in Europe has been (mis)used in the past:
In 1997, however, Germany lifted this temporary protection status and repatriated 300,000 people to Bosnia, even though the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees said that conditions were not right for return. Other countries followed, resulting in the return of 700,000 people overall to Bosnia.
Nowadays, European economies are in tatters and look to be entering another round of austerity. The large presence of Ukrainian refugees has in some cases drawn backlash from local populations, and some of the first budget cuts are programs to assist Ukrainian refugees.
With today’s crop of European politicians, some (like those in Estonia) may believe that getting Ukrainians to return home could help change the direction of the war.
The EU could help relieve one of these problems by returning fighting-age Ukrainian males who’ve fled the country back to Ukraine. Ukrainian draft laws list the minimum age of conscription as 27.
While their notion of maintaining a healthy young male population to prevent… https://t.co/b1PASSWRX5
— Patrick Fox (@RealCynicalFox) February 2, 2024
The Ukrainian military continues to struggle to mobilize an additional 450,000 to 500,000 men, and the defense ministry is begging Ukrainian men living abroad to return home to fight.
While the EU extended its temporary protection, Ukrainians might also warrant protection under the 1951 Refugee Convention, supplemented by its 1967 Protocol. As UNHCR states,the core principle of the 1951 Convention is non-refoulement, which asserts that a refugee should not be returned to a country where they face serious threats to their life or freedom. Nevertheless, some politicians are discussing possibilities for a “safe return” to areas of Ukraine that have been less affected by Russian attacks. (Who knows what the “rules-based international order” rules say about such a scheme?)
The government in Kiev has floated the idea of drafting citizens abroad, but quickly walked it back as there’s no mechanism to do such a thing. They might try other desperate tactics, though:
Ukraine Defense Minister: All persons liable for military service will receive a summons, regardless of whether they are abroad or not and the possibility of sending subpoenas to smartphones is already being developed. The bill on military conscription includes penalties for… pic.twitter.com/q0V50WXkQB
— Ivan Katchanovski (@I_Katchanovski) December 24, 2023
Zelensky recently talked about all the incentives to encourage their return: cash payments, subsidized mortgages, startup business loans. Ukraine’s Parliament is also discussing helping soldiers to freeze their sperm for their wives in case they die in combat.
Zelensky is also pushing the idea of multiple citizenship, which would allow Ukrainians to “keep visiting.” That could be a risky trip considering some of the government’s conscription tactics.
Posted with permission from a conversation with a friend who fled Ukraine. Conscription is destroying families. pic.twitter.com/FYMBgyiEq8
— Carl Beijer (@CarlBeijer) February 4, 2024
⚡️Mobilization in Ukraine must be tough: “if you don’t get out of the car, you should be shot in the knee. This must be the only way otherwise we will not win,” the commander of the Ukrainian 118th brigade Stuzhenko about the powers of conscription officers during mobilization. pic.twitter.com/z2uQnczeEV
— Edgea (@OCZSILV) January 31, 2024
Forced conscription in #Ukraine:
Villagers attack a woman, thinking she is a spy for Zelensky’s regime, which will kidnap their men to send them into the meat grinder. #Ukraine #Russia #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineRussianWar #ukrainecounteroffensive #Ukrainekrieg pic.twitter.com/HHDqfH3JaQ— Alex Bukovsky (@BungeeWedgie) February 7, 2024
Ukraine is getting increasingly desperate.
UKRAINIANS WHO “DODGE” DEATH VIA WAR TO HAVE THEIR ASSETS FROZEN * pic.twitter.com/8sHsFTVcE6
— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 8, 2024
Just how desperate will EU countries get along with them? Some countries are already “encouraging” Ukrainians to return through other means – less generous benefits in the host country and a one-time payment to purchase a ticket.
Here’s a breakdown of Ukrainian refugees by EU country:
Statista
And here’s a look at what some countries are doing to get Ukrainians to return home.
Norway
Last year, Oslo was the first to adopt a plan to pay Ukrainians to go home, handing out 17,500 kroner ($1,200) to anyone ready to depart. Oslo is also scaling back benefits for refugees. From LSE EUROPP:
In early December, the government implemented restrictions on the rights that displaced individuals from Ukraine had previously enjoyed. Norway became the first country in Europe to introduce limitations on free travel between Ukraine and Norway for those with temporary protection. This means a Ukrainian mother in Norway may no longer be allowed to meet her husband and her children may be unable to see their father, who might be fighting on the frontline and not allowed to leave the country. Other changes included limitations on child benefits during the first year and a lowering of accommodation standards for new arrivals. On 29 January, the government announced further restrictions for displaced individuals from Ukraine.
Finland
Helsinki is paying 5,300 euros if the application is submitted within 30 days after notification of a negative asylum decision or withdrawal of the application by the applicant. After 30 days, the amount is reduced to 2,000 euros.
Estonia
Roughly 7,000 mobilization-aged men from Ukraine have applied for temporary protection in Estonia, but Tallinn is the most enthusiastic about sending them back home and into the meat grinder, repeatedly expressing interest in signing a deal with Ukraine for the repatriation of relevant refugees. From Estonian Public Broadcasting:
“If Ukraine needs it, then Estonia can manage to find and repatriate this person to Ukraine,” said Minister of the Interior Lauri Läänemets (SDE). “We know in essence where these individuals are located and what they are doing. A lot – the majority of them work; they have places of residence in Estonia.”
No agreement has been signed yet, apparently due to international law, much to the annoyance of Estonian officials like Läänemets.
Czech Republic
Provides an undisclosed amount to refugees with temporary protection status if they leave for Ukraine. The country has also reduced state contributions for Ukrainian refugees.
Ireland
Dublin recently cut Ukrainian refugee welfare rates from 220 euros a week to 38.80 euros a week, while they are staying in state accommodation. New arrivals are only permitted to access state-provided accommodation for 90 days, after which they must find their own.
Poland
New Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has vowed to keep “supporting” Ukraine, but it’s unclear if that extends to refugees in Poland. As of now, Warsaw is extending the temporary protection only until June 30 of this year, and benefits are expected to be dramatically scaled back. Warsaw had already halved support earlier in 2023.
UK
Thousands of Ukrainian families face homelessness as the country’s “Homes for Ukraine” program, launched with much fanfare in the spring of 2022, is being quietly phased out. Tens of thousands of British families, for the derisory sum of 350 pounds a month, hosted Ukrainian refugees for six-month periods, but the government did nothing to find permanent housing for the population, and looks like time for many has run out. It’s now a choice of returning home, going somewhere else, or living on the streets.
Germany
German officials say they will not be deporting any Ukrainians. From the Kyiv Post:
The Minister of Justice of Germany, Marko Buschmann, has affirmed that Germany will not compel Ukrainian refugees to serve in the Armed Forces or deport them to Ukraine, as reported by Deutsche Welle. “Forcing people to engage in military service against their will is not our approach,” Buschmann stated.
At the same time, however, Germany did just enact a law intended to enable easier and swifter expulsion of failed asylum seekers. The new measures include longer periods of pre-deportation custody in order to give authorities more time to complete the process before having to release an individual. Police will also have extended powers to search for those ordered to leave, and access their property, such as phones. It should be noted there are exclusion clauses in the Refugee Convention:
(a) he has committed a crime against peace, a war crime, or a crime against humanity, as defined in the international instruments drawn up to make provision in respect of such crimes;
(b) he has committed a serious non-political crime outside the country of refuge prior to his admission to that country as a refugee;
(c) he has been guilty of acts contrary to the purposes and principles of the United Nations.”
There’s also this nugget from Deutsche Welle:
Smugglers and other kinds of criminals, including those without convictions but suspected of criminal associations, could face faster deportations, as part of efforts to “more consistently and more quickly” act against “dangerous individuals,” said Interior Minister Nancy Faeser.
Considering how gung-ho Berlin is about Project Ukraine, would it be surprising if some Ukrainians of fighting age get swept up in such efforts? Regardless, Germany is reeling from its energy crisis, is in a recession, and has decided to spend more on Project Ukraine and militarization while cutting social programs – meaning it might not be a very attractive location for Ukrainian refugees for much longer. In September, Berlin announced that it will cut spending on refugee aid sent to states by nearly 50 percent and, according to Reuters, entirely “halt its contribution to the costs of caring for and integrating the 1.08 million Ukrainian refugees.”
Whether it’s Project Ukraine fatigue, budgetary constraints, or delusions that getting Ukrainians to return will make a difference in the war, the West that destroyed Ukraine in an effort to weaken Russia is now slowly moving towards sending Ukrainians back to the wreckage – or however much Russia decides will be left of it.
