FiveThirtyEight Sets Chances of GOP Winning Senate At 50/50

With exactly one week to go before the midterm election, the polling gurus at FiveThirtyEight have the chances of a GOP Senate takeover at 50/50.

Within the last few weeks, Republicans have made a healthy surge in the polls, with the best pick up chances for the GOP in Nevada and Georgia.

In Nevada, Republican Adam Laxalt is clinging to a razor thin lead over incumbent Democrat Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, 49.0% to 48.4%.

In Georgia, in a race that has had Republican Herschel Walker up by as much as five points, FiveThirtyEight has incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock barely leading Walker 49.3% to 49.2%. 

Two weeks from today is the 2022 midterm election. This is my current Senate projection.

Not pictured, I’m forecasting a 252-183 GOP advantage in the House (+40 GOP gain). pic.twitter.com/uQIDEsIYqd

— Steve Deace (@SteveDeaceShow) October 25, 2022

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Other Races To Watch

Pennsylvania is also another very important race to watch.

Since the debate between Senate candidates Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Dr. Mehmet Oz, Fetterman’s dismal debate performance has helped shrink the lead he held throughout the summer, and the two are in a virtual dead heat. FiveThirtyEight has that race as of today at Fetterman with 49.5% to Oz at 48.4%.

While FiveThirtyEight has Nevada and Georgia as good possibilities of GOP pick ups, Real Clear Politics is also showing the same in Nevada with Laxalt up by 0.6%. In Georgia, they have Herschel Walker up by 1.4 points, and in Pennsylvania, Fetterman is up 1.5 points.

But in addition to these races, there are several others that also have the potential of determining who is in control of the Senate. In Arizona, FiveThirtyEight has Sen. Mark Kelly with a marginally comfortable lead of 50.3% to challenger Blake Masters who is at 47.7%. Real Clear Politics gives Kelly a 2.4 point advantage.

Very interesting to note in Arizona: the Libertarian Party candidate just dropped out of the race, and endorsed Masters. In races this close, even the exceedingly marginal third party vote could make a difference.

In Wisconsin, according to FiveThirtyEight, Sen. Ron Johnson has also pulled into the lead with 52.4% to challenger Mandela Barnes at 47.6%. RCP puts Johnson up 3.3 points.

In Ohio, Democrat Sen. Tim Ryan is in trouble. He is down 47.6% to Republican challenger JD Vance, who is at 52.4%. RCP has Vance up by just two.

As the Republicans in these races are pulling ahead, many of the Democrats have shied away from having President Joe Biden on the campaign trail with them, while others have done their best to distance themselves from the Democrat Party.

Many Democrat campaign ads over the summer had candidates touting their support for police, low taxes, and their bucking-the-party independence.

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Some Other Details

A quick look over in the House, which has looked good for Republicans for much of the election cycle. FiveThirtyEight has projected that Republicans have an 80% chance of holding anywhere between 213 to 247 seats in the House.

Real Clear Politics has ranked 33 House races as toss ups, with the GOP comfortably winning 228 seats to the Democrats 174. Even if the Democrats were to win all those toss ups, the GOP would still win the day in the House.

There are also some very intriguing Governor’s races to watch as well. In Arizona, Five ThirtyEight has Kari Lake up 50.9% against Katie Hobbs at 49.1% Real Clear Politics has Lake up by 3.8 points.

In Michigan, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer leads Tudor Dixon 51.8% to 44.9%. In New York, Gov. Kathy Hochul is leading Lee Zeldin 55.8% to 44.2%. While it is very close, in Oregon, a Republican Governor could be elected for the first time since the 1980s. Republican Christine Drazen is slightly ahead of her opponent 41.5% to 41.4%.  

With the expectation that the GOP will win the House, all eyes will be on the close Senate races.

NEWS FLASH TO DEMOCRATS:

It is not voter suppression to ask that each voter be alive, an American citizen and vote no more than once in each election.

— Scott Mason (@hypnoksa) November 1, 2022