Harris Gains in Sun Belt as Demographic Patterns Start to Look ‘Normal’

With Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee, the presidential race is returning to “normal.”

This morning, the latest New York Times/Siena College polls find an essentially tied race among likely voters across the four key Sun Belt battleground states, with Vice President Harris narrowly ahead in North Carolina and Arizona, while Donald J. Trump has the edge in Georgia and Nevada:

Arizona: Harris 50, Trump 45

Georgia: Trump 50, Harris 46

Nevada: Trump 48, Harris 47

North Carolina: Harris 49, Trump 47

I wouldn’t dwell too much on the precise results by state. On their own, each state poll is relatively inexact and subject to lots of uncertainty. Instead, focus on the big picture: Across the four states, it’s a dead heat. And a dead heat in these four states is not great news for Mr. Trump, who may need to take all three of Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona to win in November.

A year or two ago, a dead heat across the Sun Belt might have been a ho-hum finding. In the 2020 election, President Biden won by 0.4 points on average across these four states; coincidentally, the Times/Siena poll finds Ms. Harris ahead, on average, by 0.4 points.

But a dead heat is a big deal today. It represents a huge shift from earlier in the cycle, when Mr. Trump’s relative strength over Mr. Biden among young, Black and Hispanic voters had propelled him to a surprising lead across these relatively young and diverse states. In the last round of Times/Siena polls in May, Mr. Trump led Mr. Biden by an average of 10 points among likely voters across Georgia, Nevada and Arizona — three states Mr. Biden won narrowly in 2020. It left Mr. Biden with a narrow path to victory, requiring a sweep of the relatively white Northern battleground states.

Today, the numbers look “normal” again and the Sun Belt path is back in play for Ms. Harris. Not only do the top-line results resemble those of the last election, but many of the unusual demographic patterns of the Biden-Trump matchup have also faded.

Ms. Harris has an 84-11 lead among Black voters in Georgia and North Carolina, the two battleground states where Black voters represent their largest share of the electorate. No one would have batted an eye at a result like this a year or two ago, but it’s a significant improvement from Mr. Biden’s 74-17 lead in May in Georgia and his 74-18 lead across our final five national polls of his campaign.