How Could Maduro’s Reign in Venezuela End?

Venezuela is in another dark moment.

President Nicolás Maduro, the authoritarian leader who has been in power since 2013, has declared himself the winner of another election that international observers have called undemocratic. His security forces have arrested hundreds of political opponents. And new protests against him appear to be losing steam.

Is all hope for democracy in Venezuela lost? Opposition leaders are trying to push forward, and the United States has recognized their candidate as the winner of Sunday’s vote. But Mr. Maduro does not appear close to giving up power. What, exactly, would that take?

The answer — according to analysts, political scientists and a review of history — largely depends on government security forces.

The Threat From Within

In a true democracy, politicians must win support from a majority of voters to keep power. In authoritarian regimes, dictators are often propped up by a small circle of influential figures.

“The less democratic a political system becomes, the more reliant you are on just a very small number of people to maintain power,” said Marcel Dirsus, a political scientist and author of “How Tyrants Fall.”