Are You Bullish or Bearish in 2024? Barry Ritholtz, The Big Picture
Stephanie Kelton: ‘Inflation has come down in spite of the Fed, not because of it’ FT
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024 Calculated Risk
BRICS caught up with Goldman Sachs growth forecast a decade early, driven by India-China’s 25-yr streak The Print
US claims huge portion of the ocean floor, from the Gulf of Mexico to the Arctic InfoBrics
Water
Colorado rivers may shrink by 30% as climate change continues, report says Colorado Sun
#COVID19
SARS-CoV-2 BA.2.86 enters lung cells and evades neutralizing antibodies with high efficiency and Immune evasion, infectivity, and fusogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 BA.2.86 and FLip variants Cell (GM). GM writes:
The second one was a preprint back in September or so, and it showed that BA.2.86 enter CaLu cells (i.e. a lung cell line) much more efficiently than any regular Omicron (though not quite at B.1 and other first-generation variants levels).
The first one was never put out as a preprint, but it now shows this much more extensively. And it identifies some of the likely mutatons responsible, in particular S50L and K356T.
Curiously, those are some of the numerous reversions to the SARS-1 state observed in BA.2.86:
Worth noting that SARS-CoV-1 & Bat-CoVs have H49Y, S50L, and T572F, which might also result in stronger nonpolar interactions there. This would be consistent with JN.1’s remarkable trend back toward SARS-CoV-1/Bat-CoV residues. pic.twitter.com/ifCv2SeHSj
— Ryan Hisner (@LongDesertTrain) January 7, 2024
So in short, it doesn’t look good.
Is It Dangerous to Keep Getting COVID-19? Time. Throwing a flag on the Betteridge’s Law violation.
Ex-teachers begged to return to classrooms as teacher shortage rips through NSW News.com. Maybe ventilate their classrooms so they’re not constantly inhaling a brain-damaging Level 3 Biohazard? Just a thought. (AFAIK, there’s no reporting on this, but I would imagine that Covid-conscious teachers have disproportionately left the field, and that the same dynamic applies with HCWs, leaving students and patients to the tender mercies of the Let-Me-See-Your-Smilers.)
With COVID on the rise, your at-home test may be taking longer to show a positive result LA Times
China?
‘People don’t want to talk about war’: Taiwan civil defence battles invasion risk denial France24
Why is a unified national market now so vital for Beijing’s policymakers? South China Morning Post
US, China conclude two days of military talks in Washington Channel News Asia
The US reportedly believes China fills missiles with water instead of fuel. Is that plausible? Channel News Asia
Indonesia: Local School Sows the Seeds of Food Wisdom Cambodianess
Japan
Gods Old and New: Different Types of Japanese Deities Nippon
Can the spread of war be stopped? David Ignatius, WaPo. From January 4, still germane. Spook pool boi speaks:
The biggest national security question for 2024 and beyond is how to craft new mechanisms that would actually combat the spread of war….
Putin is wrong about most things. But there was an element of truth in his 2015 address to the United Nations about the effects of U.S. intervention in Iraq, Syria, Libya and Egypt: “Rather than bringing about reforms, an aggressive foreign interference has resulted in a brazen destruction of national institutions and the lifestyle itself. Instead of the triumph of democracy and progress, we got violence, poverty and social disaster.”
Syraqistan
Brazil Backs South Africa in Taking Israel to International Court Over Palestinian Genocide Brasil 24/7
In Israel, politicians are allowed to talk about genocide only if they support it (email) Haaretz Today
South Africa’s genocide case against Israel lays bare Europe’s feeble power Politico
Israel’s Violations of International Humanitarian Law Crimes by Israel. Endorsement:
I have been made aware of a detailed record of Israel’s violations of International Humanitarian Law since Oct. 7th. It takes the form of a detailed and well-researched list that includes sources and is kept up to date. https://t.co/RQzJQ7L0Yc
— Yanis Varoufakis (@yanisvaroufakis) January 11, 2024
Red Sea Crisis: Houthis Demonstrate Increased Capability, Coalition Demonstrates Increased Presence Naval News
Greyhound Day: World War II Combat Tactics Return To The Red Sea gCaptain. Very detailed.
The Red Sea attacks are throwing supply chains into chaos — but US oil exports appear to be benefiting from them Business Insider
UN Security Council demands Houthis stop Red Sea shipping attacks Al Jazeera
Autochthonous Wars Yasha Levine, Weaponized Immigrant. Commentary:
The Clash Over a Secret Tunnel Under a Synagogue on Eastern Parkway Curbed
European Disunion
Spain makes masks mandatory in healthcare settings amid surge in flu, COVID Anadolu Agency
Poland’s populists slam ‘political’ arrests as ex-officials launch hunger strikes France24
Dear Old Blighty
UK unveils plans for nuclear power expansion in bid to boost energy independence France24
New Not-So-Cold War
Is a Leading Ukraine Skeptic Influencing White House Policy? Kviv Post. “Samuel Charap, an influential proponent of Kyiv-Moscow negotiations, who has long been skeptical of Ukraine’s ability to win the war, evidently has an in with the White House.” Charap is from RAND.
Ukraine Has a Pathway to Victory Foreign Policy. Zaluzhny’s view.
Kremlin says Russia sees no progress in peace process around Ukraine war Anadolu Agency
What Could Tip the Balance in the War in Ukraine? The New Yorker. The deck: “In 2024, the most decisive fight may also be the least visible: Russia and Ukraine will spend the next twelve months in a race to reconstitute and resupply their forces.” IMNSHO, Ukraine has one (1) Zelensky Unit to go, and I don’t think it’s going to take twelve months to chew up the final army Ukraine is able to field.
US Set to Push Zelenskiy at Davos for Clearer War Plan Bloomberg. Davos again? How time flies.
South of the Border
Slow Motion Lulismo New Left Review
Mexico Overtakes China as Top U.S. Exporter – First Time in 17 Years Gang-Nam Times
2024
Democrats Can’t Keep Ignoring Covid in 2024 The New Republic. Yes, they can.
The Supremes
Government power, from federal agencies to counties, highlights January session SCOTUSblog
The Conservative Legal Movement’s Latest, Wildest Attack on Government As We Know It Balls and Strikes. Loper Bright v. Raimondo and a related case, Relentless v. Department of Commerce.
B-a-a-a-d Banks
The Fed Launched a Bank Rescue Program Last Year. Now, Banks Are Gaming It. Wall Street Journal
Boeing
Alaska Airlines Blowout Reveals Cockpit Door Vulnerability on Boeing Jet WSJ. Boeing’s “open door” policy:
After an emergency exit-sized hole opened in the side of Alaska Airlines Flight 1282 at 16,000 feet, a separate chaotic episode erupted when the cockpit door mysteriously flew open.
That meant the pilots were subjected to the deafening wind and noise from the back of the plane—and also made the cockpit accessible to anyone inclined to try to force their way in.
What the flight crew didn’t know at the time, federal investigators said Monday, was that it was supposed to happen that way. Boeing had designed the cockpit door to open during a rapid decompression incident, they said. The company just hadn’t said so in the manual.
So Boeing’s tech doc is hosed, too? Interesting.
The Boeing 737 MAX and The Crash Of Capitalism Indi.ca. Commentary:
Make fun of Harvard all you want but the catastrophe at Boeing is so much more serious and the arsonists in charge of that company still haven’t been fired.
— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) January 7, 2024
Alaska Airlines offers passengers $1,500 after mid-air door plug blowout Daily News
From the Archives: Gregory Travis and Marshall Auerback: Anatomy of a Disaster – Why Boeing Should Never Make Another Airplane, Again Naked Capitalism (2019).
The Bezzle
SEC approves first spot bitcoin ETFs in boost to crypto advocates FT
Digital Watch
Top large language models struggle to make accurate legal arguments The Register
Sports Desk
The Foreign Golf Simulator That’s Going to Take Over America Inside Hook
Zeitgeist Watch
Arguing Alone: On Alexandra Hudson’s “The Soul of Civility” Los Angeles Review of Books
Supply Chain
Extreme weather tops list of possible logistics disruptions in 2024 forecast DC Velocity
Hedge funds take on private equity in battle for distressed companies FT. Godzilla vs. Mothra
Healthcare
Changes in Hospital Adverse Events and Patient Outcomes Associated With Private Equity Acquisition (abstract) JAMA. From the Abstract: “Private equity acquisition was associated with increased hospital-acquired adverse events, including falls and central line–associated bloodstream infections, along with a larger but less statistically precise increase in surgical site infections. Shifts in patient mix toward younger and fewer dually eligible beneficiaries admitted and increased transfers to other hospitals may explain the small decrease in in-hospital mortality at private equity hospitals relative to the control hospitals, which was no longer evident 30 days after discharge. These findings heighten concerns about the implications of private equity on health care delivery.”
Imperial Collapse Watch
Minuteman III Missiles Are Too Old to Upgrade Anymore, STRATCOM Chief Says Military.com
The Language of Astronomy Is Needlessly Violent and Inaccurate Scientific American
This holographic camera turns any window into an invisible camera Digital Camera World
The Guardian view on archaeology and writing: the world-building power of small thought Guardian
Antidote du jour (via):
Bonus antidote:
See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here
