Opinion | ‘Trump Certainly Has Declined in Recent Years’: Three Writers on the Presidential Debate

Frank Bruni, a contributing Opinion writer, hosted a written online conversation with Matthew Continetti, the author of “The Right: The Hundred Year War for American Conservatism,” and Olivia Nuzzi, the Washington correspondent for New York magazine, to banter and bicker about the first debate of the 2024 presidential election between President Biden and Donald Trump.

Frank Bruni: Olivia, Matt, I thank you for joining me and I wonder if you’re as disoriented as I am. A general-election presidential debate in June? Which wasn’t organized by the Commission on Presidential Debates? And pits the current president against his immediate predecessor, who recently turned 78 but is the spring chicken onstage? It’s the Anomaly Olympics. What does that say about this moment in America?

Matthew Continetti: The dizziness you feel is the result of a truly strange presidential election. This is the first presidential rematch since 1956, and the first time a current president has faced a former president since 1892. Biden and Trump are the oldest presidential candidates in history, and among the least liked. Also, as you may have heard, one of the candidates was recently convicted of a crime. The word “unprecedented” was invented for 2024.

Olivia Nuzzi: I am usually disoriented when I look at our political landscape. The unusual decision to have a debate before the nominating conventions seems to be about two things that the campaigns are in rare agreement on: 1. They have long been unhappy with the commission. 2. The outcome of this election, like the 2016 election, seems likely to be determined in part by the presence of third-party candidates. By holding a debate this early, the Biden campaign was able to keep Robert F. Kennedy Jr. off the stage, something both major-party nominees have an interest in.

Bruni: Yes, poor R.F.K. Jr. My heart breaks.

Nuzzi: I think it was a mistake to exclude him not just because it deprives voters of information they say they want, but strategically for the major-party nominees, they might emerge from this debate even less popular, making them more vulnerable to a third-party threat.

Bruni: In terms of polling, the Trump-Biden race has been remarkable for its stability over the past six months. The numbers haven’t changed that much despite a churn of events, some of them set — as you alluded to, Matt — in a Manhattan courtroom and featuring the word “felon.” Does that suggest to you that this debate probably won’t move the needle? What would have to happen for it to really shake things up?