That is not Iran’s agenda. The raw power dimension is over who will be the hegemon, i.e. the big dog, in the region — Shiite Iran, tied to Russia and extending its reach to Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, or Sunni Arab-dominated Saudi Arabia in a tacit alliance with Bahrain, the U.A.E., Jordan, Egypt and Israel and all backed by America. In this third war, Iran’s goal is to drive the United States out of the Middle East, to destroy Israel and to intimidate America’s Sunni Arab allies and bend them to its will.
In this war, America is projecting its power through our two aircraft carrier groups now stationed in the Middle East. Meanwhile Iran, is countering us with what I call “landcraft carriers” — a network of proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, the West Bank, Yemen and Iraq that serve as platforms to launch rocket attacks on U.S. forces and Israel every bit as lethal as those from our aircraft carriers.
This third war started to escalate on Sept. 14, 2019, when Iran launched an audacious, unprovoked drone attack against two major Saudi Aramco oil processing facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais. The Trump administration did nothing. “That was an attack on Saudi Arabia, and that wasn’t an attack on us,” President Donald Trump said. On Jan. 17, 2022, Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi militia attacked the United Arab Emirates with missiles and drones, igniting a fire near Abu Dhabi airport and setting off explosions in fuel trucks that killed three people. Again, no U.S. response.
So it shouldn’t come as a surprise that on Oct. 7, Hamas dared to launch its murderous attack on Israel’s Western border; shortly after Iran’s proxy Hezbollah began daily missile attacks along Israel’s northern border; and the Houthis began launching drones at Israel’s southern tip, while also seizing a ship in the Red Sea and attacking two others.
I believe the chokehold that Iran’s Jew-hating clerical regime is putting on Israel from the west, north and south is an existential threat to Israel. All Iran needs to do is have Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis launch one rocket a day at Israel and tens of thousands of Israelis will refuse to go back to their homes along those border areas that are under fire. The country will shrink — or worse.