On the one hand, Trump has been willing to overlook past criticisms — even harsh ones — provided the lawmaker in question proceeds to display the requisite obsequiousness. Trump recently endorsed Ohio Senate candidate J.D. Vance despite Vance having sharply criticized him in 2016 as unfit to be president.
On the other hand, insufficiently supporting his efforts to overturn the 2020 election have emerged as something of a red line for Trump. He has given most of his non-incumbent endorsements to bona fide election truthers, and reserves most of his venom these days for those he perceives to have wronged him after Election Day 2020.
McCarthy occupies something of a middle ground here. He appears to have earned goodwill from Trump for fighting the Jan. 6 committee. But is Trump really going to stand by and let someone who floated his resignation rise to a level of such power — likely leading the House during the 2024 election?