Yves here. Your humble blogger is unable to verify the claims made regarding damage to Ukraine versus Russian energy assets, although the Ukraine utility DTEK did confirm yet another successful strike on a thermal plant.

Twitter does show dramatic photos of big-looking fires at some Russian refineries, typically to what are depicted as storage units. However, I have yet to hear any of the (admittedly Ukraine-skeptic) commentators mention these fires. which suggests they are not as consequential as the images suggest.

There has also been a general propensity by Ukraine, and therefore Western officials and media relying on information from its government, to considerably exaggerate the effectiveness of their drone and missile attacks. For instance (as Brian Berletic explains in exhaustive detail on a recent talk), Ukraine has claimed it done substantial damage to Russian air defense systems. Berletic went though how many were allegedly hit, that they were only damaged and Russia has both ample parts and amply output of these systems (as in they could be replaced in their entirety, although that did not seem to be at all warranted in these recent cases).

So my reflex is to discount Ukraine claims of meaningful damage. But we have many readers who read Russian Telegram, and many Russian milbloggers are highly critical of how the war is being conducted, and thus would not be shy about reporting that damage was significant, if that were the case. So I hope readers can help sanity check this account.

By Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Cross posted from OilPrice

  • Russia attacked Ukraine with missiles and drones, targeting energy infrastructure and causing increased power outages in several regions.
  • Ukrainian drones struck deep inside Russia, setting oil installations on fire in the Tambov and Adygea regions.
  • The attacks have intensified the conflict, with significant damage to energy facilities on both sides and civilian casualties reported.

Russia attacked Ukraine with missiles and drones overnight, damaging energy infrastructure and prompting even more power blackouts, while Ukrainian drones reportedly struck deep inside Russian territory, setting oil installations on fire in two regions.

Ukraine’s national power company, Ukrenerho, said early on June 20 that four regions were targeted in the latest wave of Russian drone and missile attacks.

“Equipment was damaged at energy facilities in the Vinnytsya, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Kyiv regions,” Ukrenerho said in a message on Telegram.

A thermal power plant sustained “serious damage” in the Russian strikes, according to Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK.”This is already the seventh mass attack on the company’s thermal power plant in the last three months,” DTEK said on Telegram, without disclosing the location of the facility. It said three workers were injured in the attack.

The latest wave of Russian strikes has also increased the number of scheduled power outages for domestic consumers, Ukrenerho said, adding, however, that electricity supply for critical infrastructure will not be restricted.

Separately, the air force reported that Russia attacked Ukraine with nine missiles and 27 drones. Ukrainian air defenses shot down all the drones and five missiles, the military said.

Russia has systematically targeted Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure, causing enormous damage and limiting electricity supply for the civilian population, prompting regular blackouts.

In return, Ukrainian drones have struck deeper inside Russia, damaging energy facilities critical for Moscow’s military effort, mainly oil installations.

On June 20, drones belonging to Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) struck a fuel and lubricants warehouse in Russia’s Tambov region, some 400 kilometers southeast of Moscow, and a LUKoil oil depot in the North Caucasus region of Adygea, setting both on fire, a Ukrainian security source told RFE/RL.

The Baza channel, which is linked to Russian security services, confirmed that a fire had broken out at the Platonov oil depot in Tambov.

Veniamin Kondratyev, the governor of the Russian region of Krasnodar, said a private house was completely destroyed, and a local resident was killed in a Ukrainian drone attack on the city of Slavyansk-on-Kuban.

The SBU told RFE/RL that its drones had carried out almost three dozen successful attacks on Russian oil facilities in various regions since the start of the war.

None of the claims could be independently confirmed.

This entry was posted in Doomsday scenarios, Energy markets, Guest Post, Infrastructure, Russia on by Yves Smith.