It’s Biden vs. Trump. It’ll be a few weeks before they have enough delegates to clinch their nominations, but after yesterday’s Super Tuesday results — in which those candidates won at least 14 states each — the primaries are effectively over. The general election is about to begin.
On paper, Biden ought to be the favorite. He’s an incumbent president with a strong economy and an opponent facing trial for multiple alleged crimes.
Yet according to the polls, Trump begins the general election campaign in the lead. Over the last four months, he has led nearly every poll in Michigan, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia, along with the states he carried in 2020 — enough to give him 283 electoral votes and the presidency.
This is not what many expected from a Biden-Trump rematch, especially after Democrats were resilient in the midterms and excelled in special elections by campaigning on issues like democracy and abortion.
Biden’s unpopularity
But Biden’s job approval rating is stuck in the upper 30s, and voters simply don’t look upon him favorably the way they once did. Nearly three-quarters of voters, including a majority of Democrats, say he is too old to be an effective president.
In the end, Biden might well prevail by capitalizing on issues like abortion and democracy. Historically, early polls are not especially predictive of a final outcome. Many voters aren’t yet paying close attention, and there will be every opportunity for the Biden campaign to refocus the electorate on more favorable issues once the general election campaign gets underway. The events of the next eight months may well, too; from the effects of a gradually improving economy to the circumstances on the border and in conflicts abroad.
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