The recent elections for the European Parliament are the latest sign of the political potency of immigration. The elections’ biggest winners were right-wing parties that promised to reduce the flow of migration.
In today’s newsletter, I’ll explain why this subject is shaping Western politics and what may happen next.
Rapid change
The first thing to understand is how unusual the modern migration boom has been. In nearly every large Western country, the foreign-born share of the population has risen sharply since 1990:
It’s not clear whether immigration has ever previously risen so quickly in so many different countries. (If anything, the chart here understates the trend because it ends in 2020, the last year with available data.)
This migration boom has had big advantages. It has allowed millions of people to escape poverty and violence. It has diversified Western culture. It has brought workers into Europe and the U.S. who have held down the cost of labor-intensive businesses.
But the boom has also had downsides. More labor competition can obviously hurt the workers who already live in a country. Governments have strained to provide social services to the arrivals. And the rise in immigration has been so rapid that many citizens feel uncomfortable with the associated societal changes. Historically, major immigration increases tend to spark political backlashes.
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