The Supreme Court and the Election

For six weeks in June and July 2022, a House committee held public hearings about the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. During those hearings, millions of Americans heard new details about the efforts by Donald Trump and his supporters to overturn the 2020 election result.

Less than four months later, Americans voted in the midterm elections — and rejected many of Trump’s favorite candidates. Republicans whom he had backed in primaries performed about five percentage points worse on average in the general election than other Republicans, a Times analysis found. The difference was large enough to decide several races.

The message seemed clear. Americans may be politically divided and (as I’ve written before) dissatisfied with both the Democratic Party’s liberalism and President Biden’s performance. But when voters focus on the anti-democratic behavior of Trump and his allies, a small but critical slice becomes less willing to vote for them.

This history feels particularly relevant after the Supreme Court issued a decision last week that will delay Trump’s federal trial for election subversion. The court agreed to hear Trump’s claim that he is immune from prosecution because the alleged crimes occurred while he was president. The justices scheduled arguments about his immunity claim for April, which is likely to push back the start of any trial until at least September. The court’s move reduces the chances of a trial verdict before Election Day.

A benefit to Trump

In doing so, the court has almost certainly helped Trump’s campaign. He has made clear that delay is central to his strategy for fighting the cases against him. And for obvious reason: If he becomes president again, he can order the Justice Department to end any federal case against him.

The delays also make it more likely that he will become president again. The public will be less focused on his attempts to overturn the 2020 election if he isn’t on trial for them. Polls have also found that a significant share of Trump’s current supporters claim they will not vote for him if he is convicted.