Tropical Storm Idalia was intensifying and expected to strengthen into “a dangerous major hurricane” by the time it reaches Florida’s Gulf Coast early Wednesday, forecasters said.
The storm is expected to strengthen slowly on Monday as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, but confidence is high among forecasters that rapid intensification will occur Tuesday, turning this storm into a major category three hurricane with winds of 115 miles per hour or more. The storm is expected to strengthen all the way up until landfall after it passes over western Cuba and moves north into the Gulf.
Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds were likely for the west coast of Florida and the Panhandle as early as late Tuesday.
The exact landfall location will be difficult to predict since the storm is expected to parallel the west coast of Florida.
“The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline,” the center said.
Storm surge watches were in effect for parts of Florida, as well as a hurricane watch extending from Englewood to Indian Pass, and including Tampa Bay. Hurricane watches were also in effect for Cuba. (A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation.)
A tropical storm watch was also issued from the Gulf Coast south of Englewood, which is about 80 miles south of Tampa, to Chokoloskee, a community roughly 65 miles south of Fort Myers, while a storm surge watch was in effect from Chokoloskee to Indian Pass.
Winds were predicted to reach a peak of 100 miles per hour, Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center, said in an update on Sunday evening.
“Evacuations may be necessary for this storm,” Mr. Rhome said.
“The hazards absolutely will extend beyond the cone,” he added, referring to the forecast maps showing the storm’s potential path. “Do not focus exclusively on the cone to determine your risk.”
Idalia, pronounced ee-DAL-ya, also threatens to bring heavy rains to Georgia and the Carolinas, forecasters said.
The Florida Division of Emergency Management told residents to keep their gas tanks at least halfway full in case emergency evacuation orders were issued.
Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida signed an executive order on Saturday declaring a state of emergency in 33 counties in preparation for the storm.
“If you are in the path of this storm, you should expect power outages, so please prepare for that,” he said on Sunday. “If you are power-dependent — particularly people who are elderly or who have medical needs — please plan on going to a shelter.”
The state mobilized 1,100 members of the National Guard, which has 2,400 high-water vehicles and 12 aircraft ready for rescue efforts. Electric companies will have workers on standby starting on Monday.
The Hurricane Center noted in an advisory on Monday morning that Idalia could produce four to seven inches of rain in Western Cuba, and four to eight inches in portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas.
“This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba,” according to the center.
On Sunday night, Cuba issued a hurricane warning for Pinar Del Rio, a city located a two-hour drive west of the country’s capital, Havana. The Cuban government also upgraded a tropical storm watch for the Isle of Youth to a tropical storm warning.
A tropical storm warning was issued for the Dry Tortugas islands, which had previously been under a watch advisory, and a watch was in effect for Lower Florida Keys West, west of the Seven Mile Bridge, the center said on Sunday night.
The combination of the tide and storm surge was expected to bring water levels up to 11 feet in some parts of the Florida coast, forecasters said.
The west coast of Florida has been no stranger to hurricanes in the past several years.
Hurricane Ian in 2022 and Hurricane Michael in 2018 caused extensive damage from strong winds and storm surges after moving out of the Caribbean and rapidly intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico before striking Florida as major hurricanes.
Michael hit the Panhandle, while Ian hit the southwestern edge of the state. Other storms, like Eta in 2020 and Elsa in 2021, also reached hurricane strength in the Gulf but weakened before making landfall along the Big Bend coast of Florida.
The Atlantic hurricane season started on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.
In late May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that there would be 12 to 17 named storms this year, a “near-normal” amount. On Aug. 10, NOAA officials revised their estimate upward, to 14 to 21 storms.
There were 14 named storms last year, after two extremely busy Atlantic hurricane seasons in which forecasters ran out of names and had to resort to backup lists. (A record 30 named storms took place in 2020.)
There is consensus among scientists that hurricanes are becoming more powerful because of climate change. Although there might not be more named storms overall, the likelihood of major hurricanes is increasing.
Climate change is also affecting the amount of rain that storms can produce. In a warming world, the air can hold more moisture, which means a named storm can hold and produce more rainfall, like Hurricane Harvey did in Texas in 2017, when some areas received more than 40 inches of rain in less than 48 hours.
Orlando Mayorquin contributed reporting.