Ukraine’s Surprise Attack

Ukraine’s efforts to retake territory from Russia have stalled. But the Ukrainian military has tried to get back at Moscow in other ways. In the past, it has launched drone attacks in Russia and backed hit-and-run incursions in which Russian exiles struck targets inside their former homeland.

Last week, Ukraine tried something new. Its own forces marched miles across the Russian border in a surprise operation. They now control some Russian land in the region of Kursk, including dozens of towns and villages. “It’s an attempt to give Russia somewhat of a shock,” my colleague Eric Schmitt, who covers national security, told me. “It could give Ukraine a win, or at least make them feel good for a few days. Does it change the larger calculus on the battlefield? That remains to be seen.”

Ukraine’s leaders are seeking to galvanize support at home and abroad for its war effort. An assault on Russian soil might not get Ukraine closer to seizing all of the land it has lost, but it shows that Ukraine can still surprise — and embarrass — its enemy.

Today’s newsletter explains why Ukraine is trying a new tactic two years into a stalemate with Russia.

Potential upside

What does Ukraine stand to gain from its latest attack? Analysts and officials have pointed to a few possibilities:

• Ukraine wants to divert Russian troops from strategic locations. If the Kremlin moves soldiers from battlefields in northeastern, eastern or southern Ukraine to defend itself at home, Ukraine might have an easier time retaking its own land. Russia currently controls about 20 percent of Ukraine, and Ukrainian leaders say they want to retake all of it.

• Morale at home has declined. Ukraine’s last big counteroffensive success came in the fall of 2022, when its military retook the northeastern region of Kharkiv. Meanwhile, soldiers continue to die, and civilians endure regular bombardments. Russia has taken bits of land in Ukraine’s east and northeast. The economy remains weak. A major strike could help rebuild domestic confidence in the war effort.

• Ukraine wants to shore up support abroad. Kyiv has relied on aid from Western nations to defend itself. But voters in those countries are no longer as enthusiastic about supplying Ukraine with weapons. Some leaders, including Donald Trump, have suggested they want to cut off the aid. A battlefield victory against Russia, even if it’s not strategically important, could get skittish supporters back on board.

• Ukraine wants to convince Washington that it can strike within Russia. American officials have barred Ukraine from using U.S.-made weapons to strike too deep into Russian territory. They worry that such an attack could lead Russia to act more recklessly. But if the current incursion doesn’t lead to an escalation, American officials may allow future Ukrainian salvos farther across the border.

Will any of this work? Some analysts are skeptical. Russia’s military drastically outnumbers Ukraine’s. Moscow still has reserves of conscripts that it has not deployed in the war, so it might not need to divert troops from strategic locations to reinforce its borders. And the intended audience for this new move — in Ukraine and abroad — may not see much value if it doesn’t help Ukraine win back its territory.