When Democrats looked over the mid-term landscape and counted Republican states that could be U.S. Senate “pick-ups,” the first states that jumped out at the political pros were Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and even North Carolina, now in a shockingly close. But no one thought “Florida.” (Or even Iowa, where Grassley has a three-point lead).
Maybe they should have thought harder. Val Demings is a strong candidate who has run a strong campaign and decimated Rubio in the debate. She has a chance in what is now considered the red state of Florida. According to Florida Politics:
Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio should win a third term in the Senate, according to polling firm Victory Insights. But even a week out from the election, his lead over Democrat Val Demings falls within polling’s margin of error.
The pollster, which has an office in Naples, finds almost 50% of likely Florida voters plan to vote for Rubio in the General Election. Under 46% intend to support Demings. Nearly 5% remain undecided, but if those numbers prove true, Demings would need to bring in all those voters and then would win only by inches.
Ultimately, simulations run by the company predict Rubio will come out ahead by 4 percentage points. But the incumbent’s lead falls well within the poll’s 4.8-percentage-point margin of error.
Those presumptions go flying out the window if Floridians vote at the massive rates we have seen in other states, primarily Georgia and Pennsylvania. There are indications out there that pollsters are undercounting the total number of “likely voters” and need to expand that list to include more women who want to march to the polls to get the Republicans out of their bedrooms and exam rooms.
Michael Moore, who has a habit of picking up trends (including predicting Trump will win), has predicted that the Dems will enjoy a “Blue Tsunamie” next week, specifically noting that the pollsters are undercounting the flood that is about to hit. Moore made his Trump pick in July of 2016 and never wavered, and he reaffirmed the blue Tsunami pick just a week ago.
Demings would certainly get picked up by any blue wave. She is just too talented against the perfect “type” of disinterested senator, a woman in exchange for a “no choice” man? NO one should be surprised if Demmings pulls this out.
@JasonMiciak believes a day without learning is a day not lived. He is a political writer, features writer, author, and attorney. He is a Canadian-born dual citizen who spent his teen and college years in the Pacific Northwest and has since lived in seven states. He now enjoys life as a single dad of a young girl, writing from the beaches of the Gulf Coast. He loves crafting his flower pots, cooking, and currently studies philosophy of science, religion, and non-math principles behind quantum mechanics and cosmology. Please feel free to contact with any concerns.