Following Sunday’s referendum, Venezuela’s Maduro government de facto “annexes” the oil-rich Essequibo region. Guyana calls for help from friends, including US Southern Command. Military exercises are already under way.
Three and a half weeks ago, we warned that the next major geopolitical flash point in this year of living dangerously could be in Washington’s “backyard” (or as the Biden Administration likes to call it, front yard). Sad to say, it looks like we were right. Like most geopolitical flash points, the region affected, Essequibo (or Guayana Esequiba), boasts a wealth of energy and mineral resources. In 2015, a consortium of energy firms led by Exxon Mobil discovered huge deposits of oil in the region’s disputed waters — and what’s more of the sweet crude variety that is easiest to refine, commanding the highest price on the global market.
In doing so, they reignited a diplomatic conflict that has been blowing hot and cold for the best part of the last two centuries. Essequibo has been administered by the former British colony of Guyana, of which it constitutes more than two-thirds of its territory and hosts 125,000 of Guyana’s 800,000 citizens, since 1899, when its frontiers were defined by an arbitration panel in Paris. Venezuela eventually accepted the ruling, albeit grudgingly, until 1949, when one of the US lawyers who had defended its case had a memorandum published posthumously that strongly suggested that the ruling had been rigged in Britain’s favour.
Redrawing the Map
Following Sunday’s referendum, Venezuela’s government has de facto annexed the 159,000 square kilometre territory, as well as its oil-rich waters. While it has not sent troops to the region, it is moving fast to make this new change a reality. On Wednesday, President Nicolás Maduro ordered the immediate publication of new maps of Venezuela showing Essequibo as part of its territory (rather than as a disputed territory). The maps will then be distributed to schools community councils, public establishments, universities and all homes.
This is what the new map looks like (as NC reader Joe Well pointed out in the comments thread to a recent post, there is a common saying in Venezuela that the country is shaped like an elephant, with Essequibo forming the hind and back leg):
Al Jazeera helpfully explains why the Essequibo region is so important, from a geographic, environmental and economical standpoint:
The area is located in the heart of the Guiana Shield, a geographical region in the northeast of South America and one of the four last pristine tropical forests in the world mined with natural and mineral resources, including large reserves of gold, copper, diamond, iron and aluminium among others.
The region also has the world’s biggest reserves of crude oil per capita. Just last month, Guyana announced a “significant” new oil discovery, adding to estimated reserves of at least 10 billion barrels – more than Kuwait or the United Arab Emirates.
With these resources, the country is set to surpass the oil production of Venezuela, and by 2025, according to projections, the country is on track to become the world’s largest per-capita crude producer.
The Venezuelan government’s “annexation” of Essequibo followed a consultative referendum held late Sunday on the fate of the oil-rich region, which Venezuela has claimed as its own since winning full independence from Spain in 1823, (for more historical background to this long-simmering dispute, read my previous post, The Drums of War Are Growing Louder in South America). In the referendum, more than 10.5 million eligible Venezuelan voters, just over 50% of the total, participated, with around 95% casting ballots in favour of annexing the region, according to country’s electoral authorities.
The voters also overwhelmingly agreed to reject the conditions “fraudulently imposed” by the British Empire in the Paris Arbitration Award of 1899; to “support the 1966 Geneva Agreement as the only valid legal instrument to reach a practical and satisfactory solution to the territorial dispute; to not recognise the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice in resolving the dispute; and to oppose, by all legal means, Guyana’s claim to unilaterally dispose of a disputed maritime area, illegally and in violation of international law.
From “Non-Binding” to “Binding”
Before the referendum, the Maduro government insisted that the vote was purely consultative and non-binding; now that it has secured the result it was seeking, it is claiming the opposite.
“The word of the People is popular command,” tweeted Maduro on Wednesday. “We will enforce the decision the Venezuelans made in the consultative referendum to guarantee the development and well-being of our Guayana Esequiba. Venezuela has raised its voice!”
Also on Wednesday, Maduro presented the National Assembly with a draft law for recognising Guayana Esequiba as a province of Venezuela. As provisional authority of the new territory he appointed a deputy from the ruling party, Major General Alexis Rodríguez Cabello, and authorised the creation of subsidiaries for the region of the Venezuelan state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela and the state-owned Venezuelan Corporation of Guayana Essequibo, which will be granted licenses for the exploration and exploitation of oil, gas and mineral deposits.
What motives does Maduro have for doing all of this? It depends, of course, who you ask.
In most Western media, the stock response is that the move on Essequibo is a desperate attempt to shore up political support at home as the country faces the prospect of new elections next year amid a slightly improving albeit still hyper-inflationary economy. The Essequibo claim is one of the few issues on which almost all Venezuelans, including many members of the political opposition, can unite around. It has also been argued that the Maduro government is desperate to get its hands on Essequibo’s sweet crude oil — hence the speed with which it is granting exploration and exploitation licences for the region.
While there may be a kernel of truth in both of these explanations, they completely ignore the spark that set off this latest escalation: Exxon Mobil’s discovery of oil in Essequibo’s disputed waters in 2015. As I documented in my last piece, Exxon Mobil has had a strained relationship with Venezuela’s government since 2007, when Chavez nationalised ExxonMobil’s considerable assets in the country, and the company’s discovery and subsequent exploitation of oil in Essequibo was an extremely provocative step. In a 2017 article, the Washington Post described it as “revenge” for Exxon’s then-CEO Rex Tillersen.
For Exxon Mobil, Guyana is a key cog in its plans for the future. Last year alone, the oil major and its two partners, Hess Corporation and China’s CNOOC Petroleum, earned nearly $6 billion in Guyana. That is expected to grow significantly in the years to come.
As Exxon has expanded its influence in the tiny country of Guyana, to such an extent that “it’s become hard to distinguish where the oil company ends and the government begins,” as Amy Westervelt reported for The Intercept in June, it was just a matter of time before US troops and military bases began arriving. The US and Guyana already signed an agreement in 2020 to undertake joint military patrols in the Essequibo region, ostensibly for “drug interdiction” and to provide “greater security” to the South American country.
As we warned last week, the drums of war are beating louder. As a contingency, Brazil, which shares a border with both Venezuela and Guyana, has extensive economic interests in and with Guyana as well as close ties (until now at least) with the Maduro government, already sent reinforcements to its northern border before the referendum. The Latin American superpower, which boasts the largest military force in the Americas after the US, bolstered those reinforcements this week with an additional 600 troops. It has also intensified its surveillance and defensive operations along the border.
So far, “movement on the Brazilian side of the border has been normal,” reports an army dispatch. Some Brazilian media outlets have warned that if Venezuela were to actually attempt a land invasion of Essequibo, some troops may end up trying to go through Brazilian territory, most likely the state of Roraima.
Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said he was following developments between Guyana and Venezuela with “growing concern”. He also suggested at a Mercosur summit that multilateral bodies such as CELAC (the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) and UNASUR should contribute to a peaceful solution. “We do not want and we do not need war in South America,” he said.
Venezuela already sent a military contingent to Puerto Barima, close to Venezuela’s Atlantic border with Essequibo, before the referendum. The country boasts the fourth largest military force in Latin America, with 137,000 military personnel, and is closely allied with both Russia and China.
Powerful “Friends”
By contrast, the Guyana Defence Forces (GDF) number just 4,600, according to the GDF’s official website. But the oil-rich nation, which accounts for almost 10% of Exxon Mobil’s global oil production, has friends (if one can call them that) in high places. And the Guyanese government is asking for their help. In a recent interview with CBS News, Guyana’s President Mohamed Irfaan Ali said his government, while much preferring peace and diplomacy, is, along with its friends, prepared for the alternative.
“We take this threat very seriously, and we have initiated a number of precautionary measures to ensure the peace and stability of this region,” Ali said on Wednesday. “Should Venezuela proceed to act in this reckless and adventurous manner, the region will have to respond. And that is what we’re building. We’re building a regional response.”
That regional response includes mobilising the support of the largely US-controlled Organisation of American States (OAS), the same organisation that fully backed Washington’s disastrous attempt to unilaterally impose Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s “interim” president. It also played a key role in facilitating Jeanne Añez’s bloody 2019 coup d’état in Bolivia. The organisation enjoys little support among the region’s left-leaning governments, who are working together to strengthen the regional body CELAC as an alternative.
Guyana can also count on the support of Caricom, a political and economic union of 15 Caribbean and Central American nations, as well as the British Commonwealth. He also claims to have the backing of France (quelle surprise!), the UK (ditto), and Brazil, which, if true, would actually be a surprise.
But it is the US that will be providing the bulk of the military support, if needed. From the US State Department:
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke with Guyanese President Dr. Mohamed Irfaan Ali to reaffirm the United States’ unwavering support for Guyana’s sovereignty. The Secretary reiterated the United States’ call for a peaceful resolution to the dispute and for all parties to respect the 1899 arbitral award determining the land boundary between Venezuela and Guyana, unless, or until, the parties reach a new agreement, or a competent legal body decides otherwise. Secretary Blinken and President Ali noted the International Court of Justice order issued on December 1, which called for parties to refrain from any action that might aggravate or extend the dispute.
Guyana has also presented its case to the United Nations Security Council, where it is being discussed today.
“By defying the (International) Court (of Justice), Venezuela has rejected international law, the rule of law generally and the preservation of international peace and security,” said Ali on Thursday. “They have… declared themselves an outlaw nation. Nothing they do will stop Guyana, however, from pursuing its case at the ICJ or stop the ICJ from ultimately issuing its final judgment on the merits of this case”.
Venezuela will presumably be able to count on vetoes from China and/or Russia in the event of a vote on the dispute.
US Southern Command is already on standby. On Thursday, it announced that it will be conducting flight drills over Guyana, in collaboration with the Guyana Defence Force. This is after Guyana’s Vice President strongly hinted last week that Southcom will also be setting up military bases in Essequibo.
But let’s not kid ourselves here: this is not about protecting Guyanan sovereignty from a hostile neighbour; it is about protecting US interests in the region and boxing out both China and Russia from the region’s resources, as the Commander of SOUTHCOM Laura Richardson reiterated last week at the Reagan National Defense Forum:
SOUTHCOM’s Laura Richardson stresses the importance of a “regional hemispheric security doctrine”—referring to the Monroe Doctrine—at a panel titled, “Overlooking Monroe? Protecting Our Hemisphere and Homeland” pic.twitter.com/XIEtNHTMZ7
— Kawsachun News (@KawsachunNews) December 4, 2023
The Guyanese government’s decision to invite SOUTHCOM to set up military bases in Essequibo, which was probably a long time coming, elicited a furious response from Caracas (translation by yours truly).
The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela condemns the recent statements by President Irfaan Ali, who has recklessly given the green light to the presence of the United States Southern Command in the territory of Guayana Esequiba, over which Guyana maintains a de facto occupation and a territorial dispute with Venezuela, which is supposed to be resolved through the Geneva Agreement of 1966, the only valid legal instrument between the parties.
Venezuela denounces before the International Community, in particular the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), the reckless attitude of Guyana, which, acting under the mandate of the American transnational Exxon Mobil, is opening the possibility of an imperial power installing military bases, threatening the Peace Zone that has been established in this region.
Whereas Guyana may have plenty of “allies” to call upon in its time of need, Venezuela appears to be more isolated. Even its long-time ally, Cuba, is also on close terms with Georgetown. Both China and Brazil are heavily invested in Guyana’s rapidly growing energy industry. Other regional allies such as Gustavo Petro’s Colombia and AMLO’s Mexico have so far stayed silent on the issue.
One country that may be willing to step up its support of Venezuela is Russia. As already mentioned, both countries already have close military ties. They also have close ties in both energy and tourism that date back to the mandate of Venezuela’s late President Hugo Chavez. It is also hard to imagine Maduro’s government raising tensions with the US in such an aggressive manner if it wasn’t backed by another military superpower such as Russia.
Not so long ago, Vladimir Putin offered Russia’s allies in Latin America, as well as Asia and Africa, advanced Russian weaponry during his speech at the opening ceremony of the International Military and Technical Forum 2022 and the International Army Games-2022 — all in the name of safeguarding “peace and security” in the emerging multipolar world. As I noted in an article at the time, it was one of a number of signs that Latin America is back on the grand chessboard, as the race for the region’s resources and strategic influence heats up in the new Cold War.
What better way for Russia to raise the stakes in its escalating conflict with the US than to provide military support to Venezuela’s government, one of the biggest thorns in Washington’s side, as it pursues its territorial conquest (or in the views of most Venezuelans, reconquest) of Essequibo. And if that is what ends up happening and this does indeed escalate into military conflict (still quite a big “IF”), Russia will probably not need to send its own troops into the meat grinder. Instead, it would be the US and presumably its allies in Latin America that would be providing much of the cannon fodder in this proxy war. And that would suit Putin just fine.
All of this is pure conjecture for now. But it is worth highlighting that Venezuela has been an unflinching ally of Russia during the conflict in Ukraine. And coincidentally, Maduro is scheduled to spend a few days in Russia this December, though the exact dates have not yet been set. Meanwhile, the US is already considering reimposing sanctions on Venezuela’s oil, gas and gold.
