The ripple effects of Russia’s audacious invasion of Ukraine will wipe out 15 years of economic gains by the end of 2023, a global banking trade group reported Wednesday.
The Institute of International Finance economy estimated the Russian economy will shrink by 15% this year and another 3% in 2023. Historically high oil and and natural gas prices have provided some protection from global sanctions, and the Russian central bank has raised interest rates and imposed capital controls to keep money from fleeing the country.
But the institute said the sanctions, partly by encouraging foreign companies to abandon Russia, “are unraveling its economy, wiping out more than a decade of economic growth, and some of the most meaningful consequences have yet to be felt.’’
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said this week that sanctions have failed to deter Russia’s military ambitions in his country. But sanctions have yet to reach the “top rung of the escalation ladder,” the report says.
“Western allies could take additional steps in coming weeks and months to keep up pressure on the Russian government,” the report says.
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Latest developments:
►Almost 30% of Poles favor allowing Ukrainians fleeing the war to settle in Poland permanently and another 64% support providing protection until they can return home, according to a University of Warsaw survey.
►Slovakia’s government has approved a long-term plan to modernize and to increase the number of troops in its armed forces. The NATO member with a population of 5.5 million people should have 22,000 service members by 2035, up from 14,100 this year.
►The World Bank predicted the global economy will expand 2.9% this year, down from its 4.1% forecast in January and an even bigger dip from the 5.7% growth in 2021. The agency cited the war in Ukraine, the prospect of widespread food shortages and inflation.
‘Elite’ Russian regiment routed, but Ukraine struggles in Donbas
The Ukraine military claims it routed an elite Russian regiment in the Donbas region amid conflicting reports on the fate of the crucial city of Sievierodonetsk. The “invaders” were trying to cut through a strategically important highway in eastern Ukraine when paratroopers from Ukraine’s 80th Brigade halted the advance, the brigade said in a Facebook post.
“The enemy has not gotten through! Units of the 80th separate paratrooping brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to inflict losses on Russian occupants,” the post claimed. “This ‘striped elite’ retreated, leaving in the forest the bodies of their dead.”
The focus of the war has turned to the eastern Donbas that includes the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. Russia claims to control 97% of Luhansk. Sievierodonetsk is one of just two Luhansk cities not yet completely under Russian control. Luhansk Gov. Serhiy Haidai told the Associated Press that “maybe we will have to retreat, but right now battles are ongoing in the city.” Haidai suggested that positions across the river, in Lysychansk, could be easier to defend.
But in a social media post, Haidai wrote that “nobody is going to surrender Sievierodonetsk!”
British soldiers held by Russian separatists could face death penalty
The families of two British soldiers held captive and possibly facing execution at the hands of Russian separatists in Ukraine say the men are not mercenaries and should be treated as prisoners of war.
Aiden Aslin, 28, and Shaun Pinner, 24, had brief court appearances this week in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic. They could face the death penalty if convicted on charges of commission of crime by a group, violent seizure of power or retention of power by force, mercenarism and training for terrorist activity. Both families say they are working with the British and Ukraine governments in hopes of winning release.
Denis Pushilin, president of the Donetsk People’s Republic, told Russian TV “the crimes they committed were monstrous.”
“Aiden is a much-loved man and very much missed,” his family statement said. “We hope that he will be released very soon.”
Sides clash over efforts to begin shipping Ukraine grain
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Wednesday that his nation was willing to provide security for a shipping corridor for Ukrainian agricultural products. An estimated 22 million tons of grains are sitting in silos in Ukraine, aggravating food shortages across much of the developing world.
Russia says commercial shipping could resume in the Black Sea if Ukraine removes mines from the area near the port of Odesa – and pledged not to use any cleared corridor to attack Ukraine. Kyiv has voiced doubt about that promise. Ukrainian Grain Union chief Serhiy Ivashchenko said Wednesday it was the Russians who mined the area and that it would take 3 to 4 months to remove sea mines.
“Turkey doesn’t have enough power in the Black Sea to guarantee security of cargo and Ukrainian ports,” he said.
WNBA star Griner’s freedom could be linked to another American
WNBA star Brittney Griner remains locked in a Russian prison, her case tangled up with that of lesser-known American Paul Whelan. He has been held in Russia since his December 2018 arrest on espionage charges he and the U.S. government say are false. He was left out of a prisoner exchange in April that brought home yet another detainee, Marine veteran Trevor Reed. That has escalated pressure on the Biden administration to avoid another one-for-one swap that does not include Whelan in favor of Griner, an Olympic gold medalist whose case has drawn global attention.
“It’s still very raw,” Whelan’s sister, Elizabeth Whelan, said of her brother being excluded from the Reed deal. “And to think we might have to go through that again if Brittney is brought home first is just terrible.”
Contributing: The Associated Press