With the Republican Convention behind us, the Trump-Vance ticket is the favorite in polls and in markets where you can predict the winner of the presidential race.
The stock market has absorbed this information and more. This past Monday, when markets in New York reopened after the attempted assassination of former President Donald J. Trump on Saturday, stocks rose. They did so again on Tuesday, but have since stumbled.
Celebratory T-shirts are on sale, showing Mr. Trump’s defiant, blood-streaked, near escape from death, as an American flag unfurled against a blue sky.
This image, evoking patriotism and courage, contrasts with the sound and pictures of President Biden, looking frail and bewildered during his disastrous performance in the presidential debate last month.
There are more than three months until Election Day. The Democrats could conceivably recoup and win the election, but the possibility of a “red wave” sweeping Republicans to victory in both the House and Senate can’t be dismissed. In this fluid season, anything could happen.
The stock market, however, is remarkably indifferent to the nation’s political fortunes. On Monday there were big moves in stocks perceived as benefiting from a Trump presidency, but that exuberance didn’t last. Instead, the market seems to be focused on issues that have little to do with politics, like the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut, heartening corporate earnings reports or the allure of artificial intelligence stocks.
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