For weeks, the White House said the stars were aligned for a cease-fire agreement that would free the hostages held in Gaza. The framework of a deal first announced by President Biden has been in place since July. Since then, a phalanx of American officials has traveled frequently to the region, pushing Israel and Hamas to sign on. So far, they have failed.
The last time I wrote this newsletter about the hostage talks, at the start of May, U.S. officials were describing Hamas as the holdout. (Israel had just made a major concession, dropping a demand to maintain checkpoints inside Gaza.) But by early last month, Hamas had shifted its position, made some concessions and signaled it was ready to move forward. Now, Washington sees Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, as the chief obstacle to a deal.
In today’s newsletter, I’ll explain how the script flipped.
The stars align
It’s an ideal time for Hamas to strike a bargain. The group is not destroyed and retains some military strength. But it is broken and severely weakened. Thousands of fighters are dead. Top commanders have been killed. Its leader, Yahya Sinwar, is isolated from other Hamas leaders. By some accounts, Gazan frustration with Hamas is growing. The group has even agreed to give up civilian control of Gaza, a sign it is ready to make concessions.
Additionally, there appears to be little more that Israel can accomplish militarily. Hardly any part of Gaza is untouched by Israeli bombs. Military operations are now games of Whac-a-Mole against Hamas fighters who disappear easily into the population. American officials say Israel reaps diminishing returns: The remaining Hamas fighters are harder to hit, but Palestinian civilians — devastated by the war — bear ever-heavier burdens. The local health ministry says 40,005 Gazans, both civilians and combatants, have already been killed.