- The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season officially ends Nov. 30.
- Simultaneous November hurricanes haven’t occurred often, according to AccuWeather hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski.
- The National Hurricane Center is watching another system that could possibly form late this weekend.
Two Atlantic storms strengthened into hurricanes Wednesday with just a few weeks left in the 2022 hurricane season.
Experts predict at least one more tropical cyclone could form in the Atlantic basin this year. The season officially ends on Nov. 30.
The current storms aren’t forecast to impact the U.S. mainland, according to the National Hurricane Center:
- Category 1 Martin in the northern Atlantic will pose no threat to land.
- Category 1 Lisa is forecast to impact Central America by Wednesday afternoon.
What do these late-season hurricanes mean for the rest of the year? Here’s what you need to know:
Is it rare for such late-season hurricanes to form?
Simultaneous November hurricanes haven’t occurred often, according to AccuWeather hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski.
It has happened before, though – experts said similar situations unfolded in 2001 and 2020.
Tropical cyclone formation typically winds down in November due to southward-moving cold fronts that increase wind shear – winds that are strong or change direction higher up in the atmosphere – across areas like the Gulf and western Atlantic, National Hurricane Center senior hurricane specialist John Cangialosi said.
Will there be even more hurricanes this year?
Matthew Rosencrans, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s lead hurricane outlook season forecaster, said there’s a 40%-60% chance of another tropical cyclone forming over the western Atlantic and Caribbean next week, NOAA’s Global Tropical Hazards Outlook showed.
The hurricane center, which monitors potential storms one week at a time, is watching the system that could possibly form late this weekend or early next week near Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, or the Bahamas, according to Cangialosi.
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What are the forecasts for Lisa and Martin?
Forecasters expect Lisa to bring hurricane conditions and significant storm surge to Belize and Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula by Wednesday afternoon or evening. Lisa will likely end up in the far southwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico as a weakened storm, Cangialosi said.
Lisa could become Belize’s first November landfalling hurricane since 1942, according to Kottlowski.
Up to possibly 10 inches of rainfall across Belize and parts of Honduras and Guatemala could trigger flash flooding conditions, according to the hurricane center. Hurricane Martin in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean will stay out to sea, Cangialosi said.
“However, it is in a big shipping lane, so there’s a marine threat but no threat to land,” he said.
Were hurricane season predictions accurate?
NOAA anticipated above-normal activity in the Atlantic basin in 2022.
What NOAA predicted:
- In August, NOAA predicted 14 to 20 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes.
- So far, there have been 13 named storms, seven hurricanes and two major hurricanes, Rosencrans told USA TODAY.
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The August forecast from NOAA reflected a slight drop in activity from what forecasters initially expected.