By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Bird Song of the Day
Evening Grosbeak (type 4), Silverthorne; Wildernest subdivision, Colorado, United States. “Several different male Type 4 Evening Grosbeaks highlighted in [t]his cut, giving flight calls and trill calls. Many finches in the area on this day (Pine Grosbeaks, Cassin’s Finches, rosy-finches, siskins), exhibiting many different singing behaviors. Some may be in background of this cut besides the species listed.”
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
The Constitutional Order (Insurrection)
For those who like to watch, alert reader marym provides these links to the oral arguments for Anderson today at the Supreme Court:
Rick Hasen Live Blog of Oral Arguments in Trump Disqualification Case at Supreme Court (Refresh This Page Frequently for Updates), Election Law Blog
Live Oral Argument Audio, Supreme Court of the United States
Hat tip to alert reader GH for going through the amici briefs; perhaps the questions will reveal which briefs the Justices (and their clerks) engaged with.
“Section Three Is Not A ‘Political Question’” [Reason]. “We note that in the Trump v. Anderson litigation, both the Colorado District and the Colorado Supreme Court found Section Three to be justiciable and Trump has not pressed a political question argument in his Supreme Court merits briefs.” • This time Trump seems to have competent counsel, so that’s that. A counter-argument Trump’s lawyers have not made:
Professor Baude, addressing your just-written “political” argument, the Framers’ brilliantly-worded inclusion of a “Domestic Tranquility” objective must always be properly understood as a “political” reference, as well as a permission for politically-sensitive cases to be tried…
— Eastman (@EffEastman) February 7, 2024
“The Only Way Trump Stays on the Ballot Is if the Supreme Court Rejects the Constitution” [John Nichols, The Nation]. • Nichols makes the tired argument that determining if a candidate is an insurrectionist is as simple as determining their age. And by tired, I mean deeply bogus to anybody not taking The Nation
Petri DishCruise. To repeat: Insurrection is a crime under 18 U.S. Code § 2383.” If determining whether Trump was an insurrectionist were cut and dried, Trump would have been charged with it. Why didn’t Jack Smith or anybody else do that? Because they looked at Trump’s fingers and thought they weren’t all that short? Because they didn’t think they could win the case, that’s why. And if Nichols thinks disqualifying a candidate on any standard less than “beyond a reasonable doubt” is a recipe for either “establish[ing] justice” or “insur[ing] domestic tranquility” (United States Constitution, Preamble), I’ve got a bridge I’d like to sell you. Musical interlude.“‘Judged by history’: Trump’s 14th Amendment fight at Supreme Court poses an enormous test for John Roberts” [CNN]. “For any chief justice, the best outcome is usually one that yields a unanimous vote – or something close to it. When it comes to the election case, many experts believe his easiest path will be a narrow decision in which Trump remains on the ballot and the Supreme Court avoids sweeping conclusions about Trump’s actions. ‘It would be much better if it was unanimous and it didn’t look like a partisan decision,’ said Tom Ginsburg, a professor at the University of Chicago Law School and co-author of a 2018 book about the threat of democratic decay. ‘The challenge for Roberts is to take a jurisprudential route that will get nine votes.’ That may involve looking for legal “off ramps” that settle the case in a limited way. The court, for instance, could rule that the insurrection ban doesn’t apply to presidents or that it requires a law from Congress to be enforced.
“6 key questions in Supreme Court fight over Trump’s ballot eligibility” [Politico]. “The trial court judge who heard evidence in the Colorado case concluded that the events did amount to an insurrection — and easily so. Higher courts are usually highly deferential to that sort of fact-finding. About 1,300 criminal cases have been filed over the events of Jan. 6. No one has been charged with committing the specific crime of insurrection, though about 14 have been charged with or pleaded guilty to a related charge of seditious conspiracy. Notably, when the Justice Department, through special counsel Jack Smith, brought a criminal case against Trump last August over his efforts to subvert the 2020 election, there was also no insurrection charge.” • Odd, eh?
“Supreme Court could toss Trump eligibility dispute to Congress” [Roll Call]. “Trump and Republican members of Congress have argued in briefs that the 14th Amendment requires Congress to approve ‘implementing legislation’ to authorize enforcement of Section 3. The Colorado Republican Party also has backed that argument that the so-called insurrection clause is ‘not self-executing,’ which means that Congress must pass a law to permit individuals to sue under the provision. A Supreme Court decision that sided with that argument would leave it to Congress to pass such a bill before anyone — Trump as well as other candidates in future elections — could be barred from holding office under the 14th Amendment. The political realities on Capitol Hill make that exceedingly unlikely during this presidential campaign, but the question would remain open going forward.” • There are many more entertaining scenarios in the article, but that one seems the most likely.
“The Supreme Court’s Colorado Trump Test” [Wall Street Journal]. The case for Trump, concluding: “The best course for the country would be for the Justices to settle this case on the narrow legal issues, and not to enter the political fight over whether Jan. 6 was an insurrection.” Baude and Paulsen dispute this, as they must. And the Trump team doesn’t make the argument that insurrection is a political question. But more: “The Justices don’t need to go there if they find that Section 3 doesn’t cover the President. A 9-0 decision would send a unified message to the country that Colorado is wrong on the law.” • It would, but much depends on the nature of the decision. My guess is that there will be a lot of yammering about court-packing.
“Another Trump case at the Supreme Court? His argument for immunity could be a tough sell” [USA Today]. “A three-judge panel of the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals on Tuesday forcefully rejected Trump’s claim of immunity from prosecution for the potential crimes tied to trying to stay in office despite losing the election…. U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan had scheduled Trump’s trial for March 4, but suspended pre-trial deadlines and eventually postponed the trial date as Trump’s appeal unfolded. The appeals court said the suspension will expire Monday unless Trump asks the Supreme Court to keep it in place by then. At that point, it will be up to the high court whether to keep the case on hold while it decides whether to hear the case. ‘It puts the Supreme Court in the hot seat, gives Trump only six days to write this petition on an emergency basis, and it’s going to be one of the most significant things that the Supreme Court does in relation to the 2024 election,’ said Rick Hasen, a professor and election law expert at the University of California, Irvine School of Law.” • I wish I could 100% reject Trump’s immunity claim. However, in some Third World countries, laws are written with a view toward later entrapping political enemies (I suppose the Radical Republicans did something like that to Andrew Johnson with the “Tenure of Office Act”). I would veiew this possibility as extremely remote, were it not for the fact that the New York law that enabled E. Jean Carroll to sue him, which was passed by a Democrat legislature and signed by a Democrat governor, seemed tailored to enable her to do so (perilously close to a bill of attainder). In countries where the rule of law is a real thing, Presidential immunity makes no sense at all. In countries were lawfare is the rule, maybe it does.
“Jurors, Not Voters, Could Give Biden a Second Term” [By Ron Faucheu, CNN]. FIling this here, and not 2024. “The recent Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll of seven critical swing states shows Trump receiving 48% of the combined vote and Biden getting 42%. The survey also finds that if Trump is convicted of a crime, 18% of his own voters in these key states would be unwilling, very or somewhat, to stick with him. That may seem like a small number, but in electoral terms, it could be decisive: If Trump loses 18% of his current vote in swing states, he drops from 48% to a little over 39% – a number low enough for Biden, at 42%, to overtake him. You ask: If Trump loses votes based on a guilty verdict, where would these voters go? Biden wouldn’t get many, if any. A portion could stay home and not vote, which hurts Republican candidates down ballot. The biggest chunk of disaffected Trump voters would likely move to independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr., who Republicans regard favorably and widely view as a protest vehicle. Bloomberg/Morning Consult polling finds that 50% of Trump’s current supporters in key states have positive feelings toward Kennedy, with far fewer holding negative views. This scenario, far from certain but still possible, would give Kennedy a chance to run up his vote total higher than current polls indicate. But as long as the race is seen as a competitive Trump-Biden contest, any Trump losses ultimately help Biden win.” • “The Supreme Court leads the election returns….”
“Justice Jackson has weighed in on more legal questions of Jan. 6 rioting than any other Supreme Court member” [CNN]. “Then-Judge Jackson ultimately handed the rioter cases she was assigned off to other judges when she left the [DC] district court after President Joe Biden elevated her to the DC Circuit Court of Appeals. But her statements from the period immediately following the attack offer an indication of how she might approach the riot in the Trump ballot case. ‘Many of the attendees of this rally were lured to the Capitol Building itself,’ she said at a March 2021 hearing for Texas rioter Christopher Grider (he was later convicted). ‘They participated in what many scholars and commentators have characterized as an armed insurrection … If there is a more serious offense in terms of who we are as a society and the democratic order that is at the core of our constitutional scheme, I don’t know what is.’”
“A Legal Outsider, an Offbeat Theory and the Fate of the 2024 Election” [New York Times]. “In the world of American legal scholarship, Seth Barrett Tillman is an outsider in more ways than one. An associate professor at a university in Ireland, he has put forward unusual interpretations of the meaning of the U.S. Constitution that for years have largely gone ignored — if not outright dismissed as crackpot. But at 60, Professor Tillman is enjoying some level of vindication. When the U.S. Supreme Court considers on Thursday whether former President Donald J. Trump is barred from Colorado’s primary ballot, a seemingly counterintuitive theory that Professor Tillman has championed for more than 15 years will take center stage and could shape the presidential election. The Constitution uses various terms to refer to government officers or offices. The conventional view is that they all share the same meaning. But by his account, each is distinct — and that, crucially for the case before the court, the particular phrase ‘officer of the United States’ refers only to appointed positions, not the presidency.” • I like the human interest stories, this dude, the 91-year-old lady, Graber, but I think the fundamental question is this: Why did the Democrat fraction of the political class instantly and pervasively frame the Capitol Hill riot as a quote-unquote “insurrection”? I don’t remember the first example of this “classification struggle,” but I wrote against that characteristic only 16 days after January 6, “The Organizational Capacity and Behavioral Characteristics of the Capitol Rioters (First Cut)“, concluding:
So, now that we’ve looked at the organizational capacity of the rioters (poor) and behavioral characteristics (inexplicable to me, which doesn’t mean inexplicable), what again was the Capitol Seizure? Given that the question-and-answer “What’s the plan? I have no idea” seems accurate, “riot” seems far more appropriate than “insurrection,” let alone “coup.”
Such “schooling behavior” is highly characteristic of the PMC, even moreso in the political class, but the impetus is unknown. Perhaps the Election Integrity Project’s wargame?
Biden Administration
“A State of the Union for the Middle Class” [William Galston, Wall Street Journal]. “This brings me to what for you must be the most bitter pill: Running on your record probably won’t be enough to win. While your list of legislative accomplishments is long, many of the effects won’t be apparent until well after the election, and what voters see now hasn’t persuaded them that you merit a second term. This stubborn fact leads to my core advice: Your State of the Union address should focus mostly on the future. Here are two examples of what you can offer. First, you should underscore your determination to attack high prices head-on. You’ve made a good start by capping the cost of insulin, enabling Medicare to negotiate drug prices, and going after junk fees. But as I’ve argued in previous columns, you should expand the battle to include persistently high food prices, which reflect (among other factors) oligopolies in key food sectors such as meat and poultry and decisions by major food companies to maintain their expanded profit margins long after pandemic disruptions disappeared. Your administration has had little to say about high housing costs, which prevent many couples with young children from buying their first homes. Governors around the country are beginning to address this problem, and you should too… Second: Roughly 6 in 10 voters haven’t completed a four-year college degree and won’t ever do so. You need to offer them a credible plan to enhance their incomes and social mobility. A college degree represents one path to the middle class, but, as you have rightly insisted, it shouldn’t be the only one.” • Do it, or Trump will?
2024
Less than a year to go!
Trump(R): “Inside Donald Trump’s Incredible Cash Crunch” [Daily Beast]. “Donald Trump is just days away from getting slammed with a court judgment that could be worth hundreds of millions of dollars as a punishment for his decades of bank fraud with the Trump Organization. And two little-known New York laws could leave Trump scrambling for cash: a requirement that he immediately front the money to appeal the decision, and a sky-high state interest rate. During a deposition with the New York Attorney General in April 2023, Trump boasted that he had $400 million in cash, bragging about how it’s ‘a lot for a developer.’ But even if that were true, it likely won’t be enough to simultaneously cover last month’s $83 million verdict at his rape defamation trial—which he needs to immediately set aside to appeal that case—and the $370 million demanded by the AG for his incessant lying to banks. While the judge deciding the bank fraud case hasn’t come up with a final figure that Trump owes, every indication is that it will be into the hundreds of millions. A message from the judge on Tuesday actually suggested it could be even more than what the New York AG is seeking. Trump’s sudden cash demands are exacerbated by a quirk in New York law. Not only would the judgment get automatically inflated by an unusually high interest rate of 9 percent, but Trump would need to give the court the enlarged total—plus an extra 10 to 20 percent—in order to appeal and have another day in court. And it would all be due by mid-March.”
Biden (D): “Biden classified document probe ends without charges” [Politico]. “Regardless of the findings of Hur’s probe, criminal charges for Biden were unlikely because of longstanding Justice Department legal opinions effectively precluding charges against a sitting president.” • Wait. Don’t all the arguments for indicting a President when they’re out of office apply for when they are in office? Rule of Law, and so forth?
Biden (D): “Biden claims German leader who died in 2017 attended 2021 G7 meeting – as he mixes up dead European leader in SAME story for second time in a WEEK” [Daily Mail]. “President Joe Biden has again claimed he was speaking with a dead dignitary at the 2021 G7 Summit – marking the second time in a week the president has appeared to reference meeting a deceased leader. The 81-year-old president, speaking in Las Vegas Monday, told an anecdote about attending the summit in England in June 2021, where he referenced speaking to French President Francois Mitterrand, who died in 1996, instead of current leader Emmanuel Macron.”
Williamson (D): “Longshot Biden challenger Marianne Williamson drops out of race: ‘Much to be grateful for’” [FOX]. “Longshot Democratic presidential candidate Marianne Williamson has suspended her presidential campaign. Williamson announced that she will no longer be pursuing the White House in 2024 in a video posted to X, formerly Twitter, Wednesday night. ‘I read a quote the other day that said that sunsets are proof that endings can be beautiful too, and so today, even though it is time to suspend my campaign for the presidency, I do want to see the beauty and I want all of you who so incredibly supported me on this journey – as donors, as supporters, as team and as volunteers – to see the beauty too,’ she opened the video saying.”
“Democrats sound alarm, take action against Biden’s third-party threats” [WaPo]. On RFK Jr. at the upcoming Libertarian conference in CA: “I get the feeling that he [Junior] wants to feel it [the ballot line] out,’ said Angela McArdle, the chair of the Libertarian National Committee, which has welcomed the attention. ‘We love the courageous stance he took against lockdowns and mandates, but foreign policy is the biggest hurdle that he has to overcome.’”
The five-way (from 270toWin):
I’ll have to track this; the thing to watch for is a slow increase in RFK Jr’s share.
Interesting chart on media mentions (from Brookings):
RFK Jr. seems low.
“Lawmakers see blue-collar voters as key in Biden-Trump rematch” [Roll Call]. “Working-class voters of today are like those of the 20th century in that many lack a college degree. But they are different because many are no longer working in unionized manufacturing jobs, which have declined substantially in recent decades. Nowadays, the broad term covers workers in industries like retail, personal services, health care, food services and similar sectors. And these days, many are not members of a labor union — but they do have a political preference. ‘While working class voters harbor reservations about both political parties, they align more with Republicans than with Democrats on most of the matters that concern them,’ according to the Brookings Institution’s William Galston, a former Clinton White House aide. In New Hampshire’s GOP primary, Trump dominated among voters without a college degree, according to data compiled by The New York Times. Because many aim to one day start their own business, hurdles like permitting and regulations mean ‘they are less instinctively pro-government than were members of the working class in the long era of Democratic dominance that stretched from the 1930s through the 1960s,’ Galston added.” • I think “many” is doing a lot of work, there. Hard to imagine constructions workers whinging about hard-hat regulations, for example. Or railworkers wanting less regulation? I don’t think so.
Realignment and Legitimacy
“Those Are People” [Atrios, Eschaton]. “One of my firm belief is that our politics would be greatly improved by shutting off cable news in Congressional offices. This was obvious to me 20 years or so ago when I first paid a visit to some of those offices. Things like ‘the border crisis’ are a crisis because they are on teevee, not because of anything real, and while I don’t think my personal politics are universally popular, I don’t think allowing yourself to be led around by the worst people in the world (conservatives, shitty political journalists, and the democratic mercenary consultant class) is the smart play, either.” • Atrios left the spooks off his list (and the NGOs (and the Censorship Industrial Complex))
“A local redistricting battle in a New York City suburb may lead to a national fight” [NPR]. “In Nassau County, voters of color and white voters tend to prefer different candidates. And the number of people identifying as white and not Hispanic has dropped more than 11% over the past decade, as Black, Latino and Asian American residents now make up more than a third of eligible voters. But on the current map for the county legislature, those voters of color make up the majority of eligible voters in only four out of 19 districts, or less than a quarter. The map’s challengers argue there should be six such districts. ‘The white voice always seems to overpower our voices. And I feel like if we’re not represented as whole, the representative will go to that powerful white voice before they listen to our concerns,’ says Jordan-Awalom, who wants to keep her village united in one voting district. ‘We have had the same fight for so long, so obviously we’re not being heard. And I think it has to change.’ That change, she hopes, will come through an unprecedented way of directly challenging a local voting map under a state voting rights act — an emerging tool that advocates hope can help fortify the rights of voters of color as opponents continue to chip away at protections against racial discrimination under the federal Voting Rights Act of 1965.”
#COVID19
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard);
MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard);OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Morbidity and Mortality
“Excess natural-cause mortality in US counties and its association with reported COVID-19 deaths” [PNAS]. “In the present study, we estimated that approximately 1.2 million excess natural-cause deaths occurred in US counties during the first 30 mo of the pandemic. Nearly 163,000 of these excess natural-cause deaths were not reported to COVID-19. The relative gap between excess natural-cause mortality and reported COVID-19 mortality was largest in nonmetropolitan counties, the West, and the South. Contrary to prior literature which indicated that these gaps were mostly limited to the early months of the pandemic, we found nearly as many excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes in the pandemic’s second year as the first year… In the present study, we examined temporal correlations between reported COVID-19 deaths and excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes. In nearly all Census divisions and metropolitan–nonmetropolitan categories, we found that increases in reported COVID-19 deaths correlated with increases in excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes in the same or prior month (positive correlation at a lag of 0 and/or −1 mo). In many Census Divisions and metropolitan–nonmetropolitan, we also observed that increases in reported COVID-19 deaths correlated with decreases in excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes… The temporal correlations we observed suggest that many excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes during the first 30 mo of the pandemic in the United States were unrecognized COVID-19 deaths. Community-level awareness of COVID-19 mortality risk changed markedly with local peaks in reported COVID-19 deaths in ways that affected testing and surveillance, despite high awareness of the pandemic overall.” • Handy map:
Interestingly, the problematic areas aren’t nearly as concentrated in the former Confederacy as they so often are, in cases like this,
TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] Yes, up, but we’ll want to wait until next week to see if there are backward revisions. I’d be more comfortable if some positivity figures were up, too, or the ER (UPDATE: It’s not). Verily data, FWIW, also suggests an increase:
[2] Biobot data suggests a rise in the Northeast. MRWA data does not suggest that:
I also tried Verily’s regional data and CDC’s mapm but I wasn’t confident I was seeing a signal in either.
[3] “As of May 11, genomic surveillance data will be reported biweekly, based on the availability of positive test specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring every two weeks. 2. occurring twice a week; semiweekly.” Looks like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to worry about. Time will tell.
[4] Does not support Biobot data. “Charts and data provided by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the past year, using a rolling 52-week period.” So not the entire pandemic, FFS (the implicit message here being that Covid is “just like the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week period” is appropriate for bothMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these people so much. Notice also that this chart shows, at least for its time period, that Covid is not seasonal, even though CDC is trying to get us to believe that it is, presumably so they can piggyback on the existing institutional apparatus for injections. And of course, we’re not even getting into the quality of the wastewater sites that we have as a proxy for Covid infection overall.
[5] Decrease for the city no longer aligns with wastewater data (if indeed Biobot’s spike is real).
[6] Still down “Maps, charts, and data provided by CDC, updates weekly for the previous MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Department Visits, Test Positivity) and weekly the following Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.
[7] It would be interesting to survey this population generally; these are people who, despite a tsunami of official propaganda and enormous peer pressure, went and got tested anyhow.
[8] Lambert here: Percentage and absolute numbers down.
[9] Up, albeit in the rear view mirror.
Stats Watch
“United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US fell by 9,000 to 218,000 from the prior week’s upwardly revised value in the February 2nd report, slightly below estimates of 220,000 but remaining firmly above the average from the last two months. In the meantime, continuing claims eased by 23,000 to 1,871,000 in the last week of January. Despite remaining firmly above the average from the last two months, the figures continue to point to a slowing albeit strong labor market.”
Tech: “FCC Makes AI-Generated Voices in Robocalls Illegal” [FCC]. “The FCC announced the unanimous adoption of a Declaratory Ruling that recognizes calls made with AI-generated voices are “artificial” under the Telephone Consumer Protection Act (TCPA).”
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 76 Greed (previous close: 75 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 62 (Extreme Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Feb 8 at 1:33:37 PM ET.
The Conservatory
“Carmina Burana” [Michael Smith, Crying in the Wilderness]. Program notes: “Carmina has been popular for a long time, and everybody has heard at least some of it. It’s easy to like. To say that it’s accessible, however, is not to say that it’s trivial. The mediaeval origin of the texts clearly suggested some mediaeval compositional techniques – organum and fauxbourdon, and lots of parallel octaves and fourths and fifths. Melodic lines often recall liturgical chant. The harmonic texture can be shaggy, but it’s never arbitrary, and the voice-leading is always logical, though not always smooth. But a certain edgy angularity seems to have been what Orff was going for. The insistent rhythm is never monotonous, and Orff makes sure to leave a few bumps in the road, just to keep us all on our toes. He has his own idiosyncratic way of notating time signatures, and he switches a good deal among measures of three beats, and four beats, and five and six beats. Somehow he stitches these together in a way that seems reasonable and discursive rather than punitive (and there are other composers who fall into the latter category). In particular, the expansion of the measure in Carmina often seems to be a way of lending emphasis to some portion of the text.” • I saw the Philadelphia Orchestra play Carmina, back in the day, It was certainly rousing! What the heck, it’s only an hour long:
[embedded content]
Don’t try listening during your afternoon nap, though!
Guillotine Watch
“Decabillionaire Dynasties: These Are The Richest Families In America” [Forbes]. “At a time when markets and asset values are soaring, and the number of billionaires seems to multiply by the day, Forbes decided to up the ante and rank only those families worth $10 billion or more. Forty-five multigenerational families made the cut. Altogether they are worth a combined $1.3 trillion. By comparison, just 36 families were worth $10 billion or more in 2020, the last time Forbes counted up the fortunes of America’s richest families. These extended families live all across the country in at least 23 states and are based out of hometowns ranging from Louisville, Kentucky to Wichita, Kansas to Racine, Wisconsin. But there are certain places where more of them can be found. New York City, home to the descendants of makeup mogul Estée Lauder (d. 2004) and publishing legend William Randolph Hearst (d. 1951) as well as the Rockefellers, has the most with seven. Chicago (four families) and Atlanta (three families) round out the top three.” Clans, like I’ve said. More: “Not all families have fared as well. Four clans who were worth more than $10 billion in 2020 have since lost their decabillionaire status. Among them: Purdue Pharma’s Sackler family (estimated net worth: $5.2 billion), whose offer to settle all OxyContin-related civil claims against them for $6 billion has been appealed to the Supreme Court. The descendants of New York real estate moguls Sol Goldman (d. 1987) and his brother Irving Goldman (d. 1995) also dropped $7.7 billion to an estimated $5.5 billion fortune, due to significantly lower property valuations revealed as part of an intrafamily legal dispute among Sol’s children.”
Class Warfare
Class consciousness:
Firefighters and MBA students were asked how they’d feel if they bought a new car, showed their friend, and next day the friend buys the same kind of car
% who report they’d feel:
Upset
Firefighters: 3%
MBAs: 47%Betrayed
Firefighters: 13%
MBAs: 47% https://t.co/nbiuOgLlfd pic.twitter.com/zirExILK0u— Rob Henderson (@robkhenderson) February 7, 2024
Reminds me of this classic clip:
[embedded content]
News of the Wired
“My experiment in phonelessness was a failure. It also changed my life” [Guardian]. ” I’m currently on my phone for 90 minutes a day. Five of those are spent on Instagram. I no longer feel addicted.” Oh. More: “Another slow burn has been the increase in time spent reading. I think it’s also the reason I no longer lose whole days on Instagram. Opening any social media apps now, they strike me as … silly. Maybe concentration really is a muscle – that hungers to lift heavier things as you build it. Of course, plenty of people enjoy both. This isn’t to say all social media content is shallow and pointless! (Even though I do think that!)” And: “For any capitalism fans, I must note that my freelance income has risen, and I’m more productive. I don’t find it helpful to vilify tech companies so much, and no longer personify my phone. The shiny, infinite-content machine is not a muse, cold lover or nemesis. It’s a tool. More than anything else, it’s a barometer of my discontent. When I notice that weight in my hand, the pull toward distraction and escape, I try to diagnose what’s really going on with me.”
Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From Carla:
Carla writes: “Some large plants silhouetted in a January sunrise — rare in Cleveland! (The winter sunrise, not the trees!)” Wow!!
Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. So if you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn’t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I’m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for five or ten days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals:
Here is the screen that will appear, which I have helpfully annotated:
If you hate PayPal, you can email me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will give you directions on how to send a check. Thank you!
