By Lambert Strether of Corrente
Bird Song of the Day
Common Nightingale, Punta Camorro, Cádiz, Andalucía, Spain.
In Case You Might Miss…
(1) Democrat Inner Party considered as a wretched hive of scum and villainy.
(2) New RCP polling averages.
Look for the Helpers
“Book Review: Dream! Hack! Build! – Unleash Citizen-Driven Innovation with the Power of Hackathons” [Dotneteers]. “‘Dream! Hack! Build!‘ by Ann Molin, Love Dager, Mustafa Sherif, Carolina Emanuelson, and Dr. Kristofer Vernmark is an inspiring and practical guide to leveraging hackathons for fostering innovation and addressing societal challenges. This book is a must-read for anyone interested in driving impactful change through collaborative efforts…. The book emphasizes the importance of engaging citizens in the innovation process. It provides practical examples, such as the Dream for Sweden campaign, which invited citizens to share their dreams and ideas for a better future. This approach ensures that the solutions developed are more inclusive and aligned with the needs of the community.”
My email address is down by the plant; please send examples of there (“Helpers” in the subject line). In our increasingly desperate and fragile neoliberal society, everyday normal incidents and stories of “the communism of everyday life” are what I am looking for (and not, say, the Red Cross in Hawaii, or even the UNWRA in Gaza).
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Less than four months to go!
Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:
Virginia and North Carolina added to the list. NC was never going for Biden, but Virginia? Yikes!
Unelecting Biden:
“Some way he make himself all soft like a blob of jelly and surround me so nasty. Then he gets wet all over like with green slime. So I guess he come to some kinda awful climax.” –William Burroughs, Naked Lunch
Lambert here: I don’t have a dog in this fight, as I’ve said. After all, Biden, on my Covid beat, slaughtered hundreds of thousands of people with his policy of mass infection without mitigation. And that’s before we get to brinkmanship with nuclear powers (but yes, Lina Khan). On the other hand, the Democrats seeking to defenestrate Biden — and who, three years ago, in one of life’s little ironies, installed him, optimized the primary to nominate him, and who, until a few days ago, serviced and defended him — are absolutely a wretched hive of scum and villainy, and the Democrat Party would be far better off if a cleansing fire from Heaven burnt away these podcasters, pundits, strategists, intelligence assets, donors, Flexians, and ice cream connoisseurs, along with the Wizard of Kalorama™ and his entourage. Perhaps — to shift metaphors — if these barnacles and parasites were scraped off the hull, the good ship Democrat could make some headway. Indeed, the Wretched Hive has form:
I love how everyone in the party who is absolutely horrific and thought Hillary was a good candidate in 2016 is coming out and saying Biden needs to step aside. It’s classic.
— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) July 19, 2024
Lambert still here: Yesterday, I questioned Pelosi’s strategic genius, based on questions of the calendar. However, “The purpose of a system is what it does,” says Stafford Beer, designer of the Cybersim system for Allende (“There is ‘no point in claiming that the purpose of a system is to do what it constantly fails to do’”). If the outcome of the past few week’s machinations is Kamala coronated, and not elected, then that was the system’s purpose and Pelosi’s intent (as well as Obama’s), and probably has been a long time (note that pushing the calendar to the breaking point optimizes for a coronation, because there’s no time to put together an open convention).
Lambert here, ordering up strong drink: For a long time, I’ve examined the structure of the Democrat Party (without coming to a definitive conclusion, along with the many political scientists over the years who have also not come to a conclusion). However, one constant slogan/maxim/nugget of wisdom is that “the Party decides” (and not, say, the donors). Should the “Wretched Hive” (see above) succeed in defenestrating Biden, we might revise that slogan to read “The inner Party decides”; it is not at all clear to me that the ground troops — the precinct captains, the election officers, the organizers, the door-knockers, volunteers and loyalists generally — want to replace Biden. The anecdotes I have seen argue the reverse, as does the fact that only 36% of House electeds were willing to sign on to the letter that Wretched Hive was privately circulating. So we would have a wonderfully clarifying operational defintion of “our democracy.”
Lambert, pounding one back: If I were Biden, I’d be in Gotterdämmerung mode, and if I wanted to cut a deal with these backstabbing weasels, this would be it: The convention will nominate me (“I have done the state some service, and they know ‘t”), at which point I will graciously refuse the nomination, opening the convention to nominations from the floor. Presumably the Wretched Hive will have wired everything up by that point, so the convention won’t be open at all, and so be it.
Lambert, slamming the glass down: After Biden’s debate debacle, I introduced the framing that it was “time to take the car keys away.” This was valid (a) in that it removed all the medical jargon and online diagnosis from the discourse, and (b) reframed the discourse in terms that many, many families could understand. What I did not consider was the larger context: The car keys still have to be given to somebody, but who? The airheaded daughter among whose skills are not numbered actually driving? Any one of the sludge-brained sons who consistently drive 45 mph in the left lane? Some High schooler with a junior decoder ring and a learner’s permit? Who, exactly? Let’s remember that this is the stupidest timeline, and that it’s always possible to make things worse….
The DNC
“Democrats in Turmoil as Party Leaders Call for Biden To Step Aside” [Democrats in Turmoil as Party Leaders Call for Biden To Step Aside” [RealClearPolitics]. “In a letter to ‘Fellow Democrats,’ Biden cited many reasons for remaining in the race, placing particular emphasis on the argument that he was the choice of Democratic primary voters, and that it would be wrong to disregard their voice. ‘The voters of the Democratic Party have voted. They have chosen me to be the nominee of the party. Do we now just say this process didn’t matter?’ … the Democratic National Committee has taken unprecedented measures to guarantee a Biden-Harris ticket comes to fruition. There was the reorganization of the primary calendar, a historic change that slated Biden-friendly South Carolina as the first Democratic primary of the year…. There were no primary debates this year, either.” • And every single member of the Wretched Hive supported the DNC’s actions, vociferously,
“Dems stand down on DNC complaints after aggressive pressure campaign” [Politico]. • Nice spin. The bottom line is that the Wretched Hive could only get 36% of elected House members to sign onto their precious letter, and so of course it was never actually made public. Instead, the leaks were cranked up.
Electeds
“Biden is isolated at home as Obama, Pelosi and other Democrats push for him to reconsider 2024 race” [Associated Press]. • First time I’ve seen the Wizard of Kalorama™ in a headline, so I’m guessing that after Pelosi made the running, Obama decided he wouldn’t come out of this thing looking dirty, and so he threw the man he put in office — to be fair, it was important to Democrats to destroy Sanders and his nascent movement — under the bus. “The reporting in this story is based in part on information from almost a dozen people who insisted on anonymity to discuss sensitive private deliberations. The Washington Post first reported on Obama’s involvement.” • Of course they’re anonymous. They always are. It’s like dealing with spooks.
CBC, Black Women
“How Black Women Feel About Biden, Kamala Harris, and 2024 A Cut survey shows a warning sign for Democrats ahead of Election Day” [New York Magazine]. “The Cut asked 1,200 Black women how they feel about the candidates and which issues are most important to them. More than half said they plan to vote for Biden, foreshadowing a weaker level of support than the 95 percent who pulled the lever for him and Kamala Harris four years ago. The findings also contained a timely warning sign: If positive perceptions of Biden, Harris, or the Democratic Party decline before Election Day, Black women may be less inclined to go to the polls. The survey is the first of four the Cut is running between now and November. It polled Black women ages 18 to 55 between June 3 and June 14 — notably, before the president’s disastrous debate performance sparked calls for him to exit the race, a gunman made an attempt on former president Donald Trump’s life, and Trump announced J.D. Vance as his running mate.” But: “[T]he survey found that more Black women approved of Harris’s job performance than Biden’s. Sixty-eight percent approved of how the vice-president is handling her role, compared to 63 percent in Biden’s case. Black women ages 18 to 34 were more likely to say they feel moderate or strong pressure to support Harris.” • The constituency that gave us Obama, nobbled Sanders in favor of Clinton, then nobbled Sanders in favor of Biden prepares itself to once again play a decisive role…. Oh, and I forgot to say: Notable for his lack of leakage is James Clyburn. Can nobody meet his price?
Donors
“Democratic donors begin mobilizing to raise money for Harris if she’s the nominee” [Politico]. “Allies of Vice President Kamala Harris have begun courting Democratic donors to provide financial support for her if President Joe Biden drops out of the 2024 race. One Democratic donor adviser has begun collecting pledges from female Democratic donors to support Harris, while a women’s political organization has begun speaking to its donor base in an effort to ensure an initial wave of contributions to a potential Harris campaign, according to people familiar with the efforts. These people shared information about the financial maneuverings under strict conditions of anonymity, because of Harris’ extraordinarily delicate political position as Biden’s running mate and the tensions within the Democratic Party about Biden’s future.” • More anonymous sources. Remember how the Trump campaign insisted that nobody talk to the press? Wise move. (Incidentally, in the highly unlikely event that Kamala’s campaign goes pear-shaped, “these people” will be the first to leak to the press that the debacle was all her fault…).
The Spooks
Lambert here: The spooks are silent. Kamala was on the Senate Intelligence Committee. What does that tell you?
The Press
Young Ezra, either totally wired or entirely performative:
Pollsters
“If Biden Stays: A Glimpse into a Grim Electoral Future for Democrats” [Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball]. Sabato has a power base of his own at UVa, and he’s been around for years, so: “While public polling has not necessarily shifted dramatically in the three weeks since the first debate, the numbers have generally gotten worse for President Biden, and Democrats are obviously concerned about their own bleak internal numbers, many of which have been surfacing publicly.” Assuming that you bvelieve their “internal” (i.e., private) numbers. More: “One cannot just automatically assume a replacement candidate, most likely Vice President Kamala Harris, would do better than Biden. But Democrats may be quickly reaching the point where a roll of the dice is advisable.” • “Advisable” is doing a lot of work there. “Advisable” because doing what the Wretched Hive wants is the only way to stop the leaks? That said: “We don’t know exactly what Democrats who want Joe Biden to exit the race are visualizing the Electoral College map to be right now. But our best guess is that it probably looks something like this:”
Smebody needs to explain why Kamala would win WI, MI, and PA, because I don’t think she does, especially not PA). Sabato does caution: “[T]he fact that we’re having a serious conversation about whether he could lose Virginia is telling. Aside from Virginia, other stronger Biden 2020 states, such as Oregon, Colorado, and New Mexico are within single digits.” • None of which means that any other candidate would be better (which Sabato does not discuss). Sabato’s official (non-“hypothetical”) map:
Same question. What’s the theory of the case here? The Democrats have spent the last few years creating an electorate that would crawl over ground glass to beat Trump no matter who is at the head of the ticket. How does swapping out Biden and swapping in, say, Kamala shift the few hundred thousand votes in a few swing counties in a few swing states? Why is there no punditry on this? No internal polling? No leaks? It’s almost as if the object of the exercise weren’t actually winning the election…
Biden Circle
“Biden’s family starts discussing his possible exit plan from the 2024 race” [NBC]. “Members of President Joe Biden’s family have discussed what an exit from his campaign might look like, according to two people familiar with the discussions. The overall tone of the conversations has been that any exit plan — should Biden decide to take that step, as some of his closest allies increasingly believe he will — should put the party in the best position to beat former President Donald Trump while also being worthy of the more than five decades he has served the country in elected office, these people said. Biden’s family members have specifically discussed how he would want to end his re-election bid on his own timing and with a carefully calculated plan in place. Considerations about the impact of the campaign on his health, his family and the stability of the country are among those at the forefront of the discussions, the people familiar with those discussions said. The prospect of Biden’s considering stepping aside, much less that his family is gaming out a possible exit plan, is an extraordinary development that comes after he has repeatedly said he would not relinquish his position as the presumptive nominee of the party.” • Who are the “two people familiar”? Jill? Hunter? Unlikely.
“Biden campaign, White House deny report Biden discussing with family exit plan from 2024 race” [Just the News]. “Thee White House and the Biden campaign on Friday denied a news report that President Biden is having discussions with family members about a possible exit plan from the 2024 presidential race against GOP nominee Donald Trump. ‘That is not happening, period,’ said White House spokesperson Andrew Bates. “The individuals making those claims are not speaking for his family or his team – and they will be proven wrong. Keep the faith.”… Jen O’Malley Dillon, Biden’s re-election campaign chair, said on Friday that Biden isn’t leaving the race and he has “multiple pathways to victory” in November.
“Biden left feeling angry and betrayed by top Democratic leaders wavering on his campaign” [NBC News]. I can’t think why. “President Joe Biden feels personally hurt and betrayed by the way so many Democrats, including some of the party’s top leaders, have left him hung out to dry as he faces the biggest crisis of his political career, according to two sources familiar with his thinking. And privately, many of those leaders have expressed doubts about his path forward. Former President Barack Obama’s only public comment came the day after Biden’s disastrous debate last month, when he tweeted “Bad debate nights happen” and talked about his former vice president’s virtues. Privately, however, Obama has concerns. Bill and Hillary Clinton have done nothing publicly other than each putting out a tweet shortly after the June 27 debate. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, both of New York, as well as Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., the former House speaker, have spent weeks listening to their members’ concerns and relaying them to Biden and his campaign. Publicly, all three have said they support whatever decision Biden makes, but even behind closed doors, they haven’t told congressional Democrats to get behind Biden or given them any guidance about what they should do.” • Even if you’re a big dog, nobody cares how loudly you bark from your kennel….
The Campaign Trail:
Trump (R): Trump really is not dumb, insane, a moron, etc.:
Trump personally dictated the new RNC language on abortion and gay marriage. His team put the delegates in a room, took their phones, and Trump said you’re going to pass this and you’re going to do it quickly.
Night of the Long Knives for social conservatives. pic.twitter.com/IQLdu22tOy
— Richard Hanania (@RichardHanania) July 18, 2024
Trump (R): “J.D. Vance Left His Venmo Public. Here’s What It Shows” [Wired]. “US senator J.D. Vance, an Ohio Republican and former US president Donald Trump’s pick for vice president, has a public Venmo account that gives an unfiltered glimpse into his extensive network of connections with establishment GOP heavyweights, wealthy financiers, technology executives, the prestige press, and fellow graduates of Yale Law School—precisely the elites he rails against.” More: “Despite his anti-elite stance, Vance’s connections reveal a more complex relationship with establishment figures. At the same time, as the former president distances himself from Project 2025—a right-wing policy roadmap aiming to purge the federal government and reshape the executive branch and turn the US into what critics characterize as a Christian nationalist autocratic state—Vance’s Venmo network reveals his ties not just to [Amalia Halikias, government relations director at the Heritage Foundation] but to others associated with a maximalist interpretation of MAGA. Gladden Pappin, for instance—president of the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs and a figure with close ties to the intellectual wing of the far right—shows up as one of Vance’s friends.” • Unsurprising, I would say, but still interesting.
Biden (D): “Biden Campaign Schedules an All-Hands as Defections Grow” [NOTUS]. “Democratic leaders signaled in their most direct terms this week that they’re prepared to leak their private conversations with President Joe Biden until he drops out of the 2024 race. And, as of Thursday, the pressure — and the leaks — were only mounting… Democrats told NOTUS on Thursday that members are holding back from an all-out jailbreak from the president, but enough lawmakers are preparing to call on Biden to step aside in the coming days so that the president gets the point. ‘It is building to a head this weekend, and we should have movement,” one House Democrat told NOTUS on Thursday. “So I think many members, out of respect for Biden, will likely wait, but a few will not because, you know, I think what they don’t want is to create any perception by Biden that the opposition is over.’ This lawmaker noted that Biden has seemed to get the message before that he has to step down as the Democratic nominee — only to ignore the opposition and forge ahead. That is why more lawmakers are preparing to go public in the coming days unless Biden indicates he will drop out. ‘We could get some signal from the White House that, you know, they’re preparing a major announcement or something like that, and then everything would freeze,’ this Democrat said. ‘But, you know, short of that, I think there will continue to be some forward motion by members of Congress who want to maintain pressure.’” • So, the dogs are in their kennels, but preparing to bark? And the pressure is leaks? That’s where we are? That’s what we know how to do? (To be fair, the pressure can’t be that, say, Hunter consorted with ladies of negotiable infection, that’s already out there, so what would the pressure be? That Biden said or did The Bad Thing? Who would believe them?)
Republican Funhouse
“The GOP’s Big Working-Class Bet” [Ruy Teixiera, The Liberal Patriot]. “Democrats seem inclined to believe that the GOP’s big bet on the working class—of which the Vance nomination is surely a part—cannot possibly pay off due to the party’s obvious hypocrisy, incoherent policy ideas, and traditional business-oriented commitments. Therefore, the GOP’s latest moves will be of little consequence. Here’s the problem: not only could the GOP’s big bet on the working class pay off—it already is paying off. Let’s go to the tape. In the July New York Times/Siena poll, Biden is losing to Trump by 23 points among working-class likely voters. In their June poll, which was closer to the running average of the polls, Trump led by 17 points among working-class likely voters. Either way, this is a massive shift from the 2020 election where Trump carried these voters by only 4 points and mostly explains why Trump is running ahead this year.”
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Worse than two weeks ago.
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) LB.1 coming up on the outside.
[4] (ER) This is the best I can do for now. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Now acceleration, which is compatible with a wastewater decrease, but still not a good feeling .(The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). This is the best I can do for now. Note the assumption that Covid is seasonal is built into the presentation, which in fact shows that Covid is not seasonal. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.
[7] (Walgreens) Still going up! (Because there is data in “current view” tab, I think white states here have experienced “no change,” as opposed to have no data.)
[8] (Cleveland) Still going up!
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.
[10] (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads.
[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.
[12] Deaths low, ED up.
Stats Watch
There are no official statistics of interest today,
Tech: “CrowdStrike fixes start at ‘reboot up to 15 times’ and get more complex from there” [Ars Technica]. “Airlines, payment processors, 911 call centers, TV networks, and other businesses have been scrambling this morning after a buggy update to CrowdStrike’s Falcon security software caused Windows-based systems to crash with a dreaded blue screen of death (BSOD) error message.” • Fifteen times? That’s a lot.
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 48 Neutral (previous close: 50 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 54 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jul 19 at 1:57:39 PM ET.
News of the Wired
“What Would It Take to Recreate Bell Labs?” [Construction Physics]. “AT&T linemen bet with their lives on the integrity of the leather harnesses that kept them tethered at great heights – so Labs technicians established strength and standards for the two-inch leather belts…and improving the metal rivets and parts. Millions of soldered joints held the system together – so Labs engineers had to spend years investigating which fluxes and compounds were best for reinforcing anything from seams on sheet metal to lead joints to copper wires to brass casings… A Bell Labs engineer named Donald Quarles…wrote a long treatise entitled “Motion of Telephone Wires in the Wind.” His men made rigorous, multiyear tests on the proper spans (how far should the poles be spaced apart?), proper lashing (how tight should the wires be wired together?), proper vertical spacing between horizontal strings of wires… Many of the system’s most important cables, meanwhile, were not strung through the air but ran underground. For burying wire, the men in Chester had to develop new processes involving special tractors they invented and splicing techniques.” • Bell Labs wasn’t all people inventing C…
“Want to spot a deepfake? Look for the stars in their eyes” [Royal Astronomical Society]. “AI-generated fakes can be spotted by analysing human eyes in the same way that astronomers study pictures of galaxies. The crux of the work, by University of Hull MSc student Adejumoke Owolabi, is all about the reflection in a person’s eyeballs. If the reflections match, the image is likely to be that of a real human. If they don’t, they’re probably deepfakes.” • Until somebody fixes the algorithm?
Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From TH:
TH writes: “This is a rose at the Sherman Library and Gardens in Corona Del Mar (Newport Beach, California). There was no identifying label on the rose to tell me what I should order to get this pretty color combination—but then, it’s probably just as well. I’ve had roses and am not sure I’m up to the battle against aphids, rust, mildew, and the like.” The only roses I’ve ever had were Beach Roses, which are invasive and tough, but even they got Japanese beetles, yech.
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