By Lambert Strether of Corrente
Bird Song of the Day
Still with the Thrashers!
California Thrasher, Daley Ranch, San Diego, California, United States.
In Case You Might Miss…
- Updated Covid data: First sighting of XDV.1 variant from China.
- A campaign scenario and the Democrat National Convention.
- Israel accepts US ceasefire proposal (nice timing).
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Less than one hundred days to go!
Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:
There is no good news here for Trump. The deterioration in both Pennsylvania and Georgia is especially marked. Remember, however, that all the fluctuations — in fact, all the leads — are within the margin of error. So the “joy” is based on, well, vibes.
The Democrat National Convention:
Lambert here: Let’s start out by examining the state of play. Here’s a scenario based on the idea that nothing much structural has changed from 2020; and that the election will come down to a few hundred thousand voters in more or less the same swing states. (I have heard the theory put forth that this is not the Kamala campaign’s theory of the case; that “joy,” vibes, and memes change the electoral map across the board, and perhaps that will be sufficient in a “100 Days” campaign. I’m not sure how strongly that theory is held outside the Blue Bubble, however; it is true that Trump has slipped in the polls, but is the race no longer close? No. So for now, I’m sticking to the original scenario.) Read from left to right, top to bottom. Captions are beneath each map:
TABLE 0: An Electoral College Scenario
Now let’s talk about Pennsylvania. Interestingly, the Uncommitted Delegates and the Palestinian cause already have a voice inside the all at the Democrat National Convention:
Uncommitted: DNC will host first ever panel on Palestinian human rights
Panelists:
Uncommitted co-lead Layla Elabed
Surgeon who served in Gaza
Party organizer w/ family killed in Gaza by Israeli forces
MN AG Keith Ellison
Fmr Rep Andy Levin
Arab American Institute pres. Jim Zogby pic.twitter.com/ge1xGqNtqx— Prem Thakker (@prem_thakker) August 19, 2024
(Readers will recall that Sanders tried to install Keith Ellison after 2016, but the Democrats threw Ellison under the bus in favor of the reptilian Tom Perez.) So what can Kamala give them? First, how many of the “Uncommitted” voters are there? Michigan: 100,000+; Wisconsin, 47,800 (Minnesota 40,000 but not a swing state.) Further, the “Uncommitted” voters tend to be from the activist class of the party. Now, let’s look at Pennsylvania. From the American Jewish Population Project (2020):
That’s 232,000. Assume 70% vote (high), that’s 162,400. Assume another 70% are Zionist or Zionist-adjacent. That’s 113,680. So the numbers in the upper Midwest and Pennsylvania are roughly comparable. All other things being equal, I believe Kamala would take the AIPAC money and throw the activists (and that ex-Sanders dude) under the bus. In a nano-second! But all other things are not equal; she needs — as the “End Game” map shows — both Pennsylvania and the Midwest.
Speculating freely: I think Kamala first “secured her rear” in the upper Midwest. That’s what Walz was all about. That was in fact wise; she’s now ahead there, “Uncommitted” voters aside. She can further cool the Uncommitted Delegates by offering them meaningless concessions; “listening,” a speech from the floor, face time with the candidate, a promise that Biden is working the problem hard (and who knows, he might actually deliver a ceasefire, meaningless though that is in the face of a determined genocidaire). Having solidified the upper Midwest, she goes after Pennsylvania. (It’s excruciatingly interesting to me that the aspect of Kamala’s campaign that is meme-driven (the couch; “weird”) is strongly reminiscent of the brilliant campaign run by Fetterman’s social media team.) NOTE Why not Shapiro? The Midwest was first, and Walz helped there; Shapiro’s hard to work with (IIRC, he had “schedule problems” this week and couldn’t help Kamala campaign); and the campaign staff must have felt they could do the job without him (after all, Biden Pennsylvania in in 2020).
Kamala (D): “Democratic National Committee delegates will vote on the party’s 2024 platform at its convention on Monday evening, according to officials. A full, 92-page draft platform was unveiled by the party late on Sunday night” [ABC]. “Democratic National Committee delegates will vote on the party’s 2024 platform at its convention on Monday evening, according to officials. A full, 92-page draft platform was unveiled by the party late on Sunday night.” • Plenty of time to read it! Institutionally, the past few years have been an interesting time for the Democrat Party: There was no convention in 2020, and the Democrats were able to wrap Biden in tissue paper for the entire campaign. Then in 2024, there were no primaries worthy of the name. Then Kamala was annointed by a very small group of Inner Party insiders (Pelosi, Obama, Schumer), and became a Presidential candidate without having faced the voters and won a single primary running for President, either in 2020 or 2024, and the entire party instantly fell in line. Kamala immediately took control of the campaign cash, and a few days later was formally elected at a virtual convention. There is, then no purpose whatever for the convention in Chicago; it is purely vestigial, a specatacle (a spectacle that can be interfered with, of course). I feel certain that the Inner Party like it this way, and that “primary” “campaigns” like this will become the new normal. Meanwhile, there’s a good deal on Israsel in the plagform, but these two sections seem salient:
Whatever “a political horizon for the Palestinian people” might mean. And:
(Readers know, I am sure, how to assess “conflict-related sexual violence.) Wowsers, I haven’t heard that nauseating phrase “a time of war” since the days of Bush the Younger. Memories! (To be fair, “concessions” would be made to the Uncommitted delegates by modifying some of the wording. If there’s time [hilarity ensues].)
Kamala (D): “Thousands of activists expected in Chicago for Democratic convention to call for Gaza cease-fire” [Associated Press]. “Demonstrations are expected every day of the convention and, while their agendas vary, many activists agree an immediate cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war is the priority.” • Assuming the AP is represening the demands of the protesters accurately, that’s what Biden says he wants too. So we’re all agreed then? Here is the photo from the AP article:
This is at least not tightly focused, but wide angle. However, only an aerial photo can show the true size of a crowd.
Kamala (D): “Blinken says Israel has accepted US-backed proposal for a cease-fire, calls on Hamas to do same” [New York Post]. “His announcement came after negotiators gathered last week to discuss the US-back, UN-approved deal, with Hamas choosing to forgo the meeting after it accused the Jewish state of changing what was on the table. The US-backed proposal seeks to impose a six-week pause in fighting so as to allow Israel and Hamas to discuss a hostage exchange, all while allowing Palestinian refugees to return to their homes and receive more aid. Hamas has allegedly dropped its demands for the immediate cease-fire to be permanent, but the terror group has previously stated that the deal should include wording to establish an end to the war. It remains unclear if such a change was added to the agreement or if the terror group would finally accept the deal. Hamas also accused Israel of now demanding its military keep a presence along the Gaza-Egypt border, where large terror tunnel systems have been recently found, to prevent arms smuggling.” • Brilliant timing, I must say (and putting the demonstrators in the position of arguing that Hamas has not accepted the ceasefire for good reason which, though probably true, is a heavy lift for the average voter. “Why aren’t your demonstrating against Hamas,” and so forth).
Kamala (D): Interestingly, the National Guard has already been activated:
BREAKING: The Governor of Illinois J.B. Pritzker has activated hundreds of armed National Guard troops to protect Democrat officials at the DNC from their OWN leftist protestors & rioters
“They are at the perimeter… We also want to make sure we have additional law enforcement… pic.twitter.com/IeWHuEXsf2
— George (@BehizyTweets) August 18, 2024
The Campaign Trail:
Kamala:
Kamala (D): “Walz responds to GOP criticism of how Harris laughs: ‘She has a joy emanating out of her’” [National Post]. “‘They’re on her because she laughs,; Walz, the Minnesota governor, told a meeting of the Hispanic Caucus during Monday’s first day of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. ‘My god. I’ll take someone who laughs any damn day of the week.’ He continued of Harris, ‘She has a joy emanating out of her.’” • Brilliant leveraging/reframing of the “joy” talking point; Walz sure is quick on his feet.
Kamala (D): “The Intense Process of Designing Political Campaign Logos” [Kottke.org]. “The current Harris/Walz logo is based on the design of Harris’s presidential campaign materials from 2020, which ‘smartly riffed on the 1972 Shirley Chisholm campaign.’” • Oh.
Trump: [sigh]. Maybe tomorrow.
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Elite Maleficence
Loss of executive function at CDC:
For anyone who’s wondering, yes, this atrocious post on Instragram by @CDCGov is real. Biden completed the destruction of public health that Trump started, and @CDCDirector Cohen and her minimizing minions bury us deeper every day. pic.twitter.com/NOK90RleqO
— Author Michael R. Hicks (@KreelanWarrior) August 17, 2024
(On Instagram, which I can’t get to, but confirmed by several Twitter accounts.)
TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts
Lambert here: Worth noting that national Emergency Room admissions are as high as they were in the first wave, in 2020.
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading.
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. First showing of the new variant from China, XDV.1 (though it didn’t appear in traveler’s data).
[4] (ER) Worth noting Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Going down. Doesn’t need to be a permanent thing, of course. (The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.
[7] (Walgreens) Fiddling and diddling.
[8] (Cleveland) Jumping.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time range. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.
[10] (Travelers: Variants) The new variant in China, XDV.1, is not showing up here.
[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.
[12] Deaths low, ED up.
Stats Watch
There are no statistics of interest today.
The Bezzle:
Satoshi modeled bitcoin after gold. He even used the word mining to describe the coinbase transaction (every bitcoin block begins with a miner reward).
But there’s a key difference: if all the gold miners ceased operations today, gold will still have value.
If all the bitcoin… https://t.co/DMQBiSrd2h
— Kashyap Sriram (@kashyap286) August 17, 2024
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 41 Fear (previous close: 35 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 21 (Extreme Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Aug 19 at 3:00:51 PM ET.
Gallery
“They Who Cannot”:
Zeitgeist Watch
“Commodified fantasy”:
Le Guin on the culture industry back in 2001 is pretty grim reading given its only gotten worse since then.
That new Deadpool movie seems like the apex of this stuff at this point pic.twitter.com/zyG2mB3Mtc
— John Duncan (@Johntheduncan) News of the Wired
I hope I haven’t run this already:
Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant)
EM writes: “This year’s late spring rain came at an opportune time for our Monarda (Bee Balm), which has nearly reached 5 feet high. Hummingbirds are loving this. Zooming into the lower right corner of the Monarda stand one can see milkweed, planted last year, peeking out next to the coreopsis. Also, our first year to grow sunflowers. Sadly, each year it seems the bee population dwindles but we try our best to sustain them. For reference, standing at a mere 5′-3” is Mrs. “NYT_Memes”. Late June and early July have been hot in Beaverton as we wait for the A/C man to come to the rescue. I do not know if you prefer not having any humans in plant photos. I could retake if you wish since I also see that I cropped the top of the sunflowers, plus the red gladiolus is in the shade.”
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