2:00PM Water Cooler 8/30/2024 | naked capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Have a good Labor Day, everyone!

Bird Song of the Day

Catbirds are in the Mimidae species (!), like mockingbird and thrashers. Readers have said they like the mimicry, so hopefully MacCaulay Library has enough recordings to keep us all satisfied, at least for a time.

Black Catbird, Camino de grava entre el Corchito y Estero de Chicxulub, Progreso, Yucatán, Mexico.

In Case You Might Miss…

1. New RCP averages show race neck-and-neck, plus new Covid charts show positivity improvement.
2. Kamala and joy.
3. Trump needs a campaign reset.
4. Unions and worker power.

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

2024

Less than one hundred days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

The good news for Trump is that Kamala’s post-convention “bounce” seems to have been slight. The good news for Kamala is Trump’s continued deterioration in North Carolina, plus taking a slight lead in Pennsylvania. Remember, however, that all the fluctuations — in fact, all the leads, top to bottom — are within the margin of error.

Kamala (D): How it started:

Kamala (D): How it’s going:

Wowsers. Katrina vandenHeuvel.

Kamala (D): “READ: Harris and Walz’s exclusive joint interview with CNN” [CNN]. “By contrast, the former president has none of that. And so — one, I — I — I am so proud to have served as vice president to Joe Biden. And, two, I am so proud to be running with Tim Walz for president of the United States and to bring America what I believe the American people deserve, which is a new way forward, and turn the page on the last decade of what I believe has been contrary to where the spirit of our country really lies.” • One decade is 2014. Obama: 2016 – 2014 = 2; Trump 2020 – 2016 = 4; Biden: 2024 – 2020 = 4. 2 + 4 = 6, or 60% of ten. I too would love to turn the page on the last decade. Unfortunately, the Democrats have been in charge for 60% of it. And what’s with the “I — I — I”, especially on that topic? Don’t tell me Kamala grew up with a stutter too! Oh, and an eighteen minute interview, with a second interviewee present, is not at all impressive.

Kamala (D): “Donors Quietly Push Harris to Drop Tax on Ultrawealthy” [New York Times]. “The VCs for Kamala group — which includes Reid Hoffman, a founder of LinkedIn; Vinod Khosla of Khosla Ventures; Ron Conway, a well-known investor; and the billionaire Chris Sacca — surveyed its members about various public policy issues. Roughly 75 percent of respondents agreed with the statement “taxing unrealized capital gains will stifle innovation,” according to a document viewed by The New York Times. The survey otherwise showed support for Ms. Harris’s agenda….Some progressives have so far said they are unworried about signs that Ms. Harris is adopting more moderate rhetoric about economic issues, maintaining that she has been a key partner in crafting Mr. Biden’s agenda.” Commentary:

Trump (R): “Arlington National Cemetery worker was ‘pushed aside’ in Trump staff dispute but won’t seek charges” [Associated Press]. It was “assault,” now it’s “pushed aside.” So it goes. The details are in the story. Commentary:

Oh, I believe some things; it’s just that the process of ascertainment/discernment is far more laborious than it once was. And Bauer has the press dead to rights on WMDs, Steele, and Russian bot farms.

Trump (R): “Trump says he wants to make IVF treatments paid for by government or insurance companies if elected” [NBC News]. • This is actually clever, since it dings Walz while doing a good thing that will please suburban women. Useful in the debates, too. So, just like not taxing tips, Kamala will steal the idea in 10, 9, 8 counting….

Trump (R): “Trump tries to reset his campaign after brutal month” [Politico]. “Despite the endorsement and moments of discipline, the past weeks showed how Trump is most often guided by his own political instincts that are beyond the scope of what his advisers or allies can influence.” • Yes, it’s impossible for the campaign stuff to turn Trump into somebody he isn’t. Not that this is a strategy per se, but where I would begin is with Trump himself: Trump, love him or hate him, is somebody we feel that we know. He may be — often is — a [glassbowl]. But he’s a genuine [glassbowl]. Kamala, I would say, is different. It’s not that the public don’t know her, though it’s hard to see how this can be so, when she had three years in office as Biden’s heir apparently. It’s that Kamala herself does not know who she is. The “Indian”/”Black”/Mixed/Woman of Color vascillation is an example of this (which is why, in my view, Trump misplayed this aspect of her career by forcing it under the DEI rubric). All this would need to be translated into lietmotifs for Trump to incorporate into his riffing; the staff’s insistent tnat a teleprompter dominate him is wrong, personally and tactically.

Kennedy (I): Susie Wiles could do worse than bring whoever produced this ad from Shanahan onto the Trump campaign proper:

It codes young, “Trump Derangement Syndrome” is an extremely online trope, and TDS out-weirds “weird.”

“The ‘far-left agenda’ is exactly what most Americans wants” [Bernie Sanders, Guardian]. Fine use of anaphora. “When we talk about guaranteeing healthcare for all as a human right, we’re talking about the ability of every one of us, regardless of income, to go to a doctor when we’re sick and not go bankrupt when we come out of the hospital. We’re talking about the right to change jobs without fear of losing our healthcare. Does that really sound radical to you?” • But Kamala’s not advocating that, and if she were, she would’t deliver on it. The Democrats have form. More telling is what Sanders does not mention: Anti-trust. So long, Lina!

PA: “Pennsylvania may be a problem for Harris” [Silver Bulletin]. “If [Harris is] only tied in Pennsylvania now, during what should be one of her stronger polling periods, that implies being a slight underdog in November…. It’s possible that RFK’s dropout and endorsement of Trump is having more effect in Pennsylvania and the other Rust Belt states than elsewhere, which have older, whiter and more disaffected electorates. And as I said, it’s also possible that all of this is noise and/or that the model is overdoing the convention bounce adjustment. But while Tim Walz has had a strong rollout as Harris’s VP, I can’t help but wonder what her numbers would look like with Josh Shapiro instead.” • I still say no difference, and that Trump won Pennsylvania when Crooks tried to whack him.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Transmission: H5N1

New H5N1 wastewater site:

Looks like good news, but before I did a happy dance, I’d want to lay a map of dairy herds against this map of sewer sytems.

“California, nation’s largest milk producer, discloses possible bird flu outbreaks in three dairy cow herds” [STAT]. “On Thursday, the California Department of Food and Agriculture announced it is investigating the possible introduction of H5N1 bird flu in cattle at three dairy farms in the Central Valley. If confirmed, they would be the first known cases in that state…. California, the nation’s largest milk producer, is home to roughly 1.7 million dairy cows. Nearly 90% of them live in the San Joaquin Valley, a vast stretch of fertile farmland that extends more than 250 miles from Stockton to Bakersfield. Dairy farms there tend to be big operations, separated from each other by significant distances, and for months farmers have been taking extra precautions like bleaching down cow-toting trailers to reduce cross-contamination. Workers there are usually dedicated to just one herd, unlike in Colorado and Michigan, where workers sometimes pick up shifts both at dairy farms and nearby poultry operations, creating additional biosecurity challenges. In both states, which have seen double-digit outbreaks, infections at dairy farms have spilled over to poultry sites, according to genetic analyses of the virus. But despite those measures, many have feared that with the lackluster national response to the outbreak, sooner or later H5N1 would come for California.” • Ah, bleach.

Maskstravaganza

At least they are wearing respirators (white) and not surgical masks (baggy blues):

You can take steps to help protect yourself from COVID-19 and other respiratory viruses, including:

– Staying up to date with vaccines.
– Practicing good hygiene (practices that improve cleanliness)
– Taking steps for cleaner air

Learn more about how to lower your risk:… pic.twitter.com/BulLnH8awG

— CDC (@CDCgov) August 29, 2024

So if the masks work as shields, why don’t they deserve a bullet point?

Science Is Popping

“Discovery of how blood clots harm brain and body in COVID-19 points to new therapy” (press release) [EurekAlert]. This is the press release for the important fibrin study in Nature we wrote about the other day. “In a study that reshapes what we know about COVID-19 and its most perplexing symptoms, scientists have discovered that the blood coagulation protein fibrin causes the unusual clotting and inflammation that have become hallmarks of the disease, while also suppressing the body’s ability to clear the virus. Importantly, the team also identified a new antibody therapy to combat all of these deleterious effects.” Key point: “[T]he study by Gladstone Institutes and collaborators overturns the prevailing theory that blood clotting is merely a consequence of inflammation in COVID-19. Through experiments in the lab and with mice, the researchers show that blood clotting is instead a primary effect, driving other problems—including toxic inflammation, impaired viral clearance, and neurological symptoms prevalent in those with COVID-19 and long COVID.”

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XDV.1 flat.

[4] (ER) Worth noting Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Again, an uptick, but the state as a whole is still down. Makes me wonder if there’s something happending at New York airports. Let’s watch carefully. (The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)

Lambert here: Since things are bad out on the West Coast, I went looking for California hospitalization data to compare with New York’s, and found this: “Due to changes in reporting requirements for hospitals, CDPH is no longer including hospitalization data on the CDPH dashboard. CDPH remains committed to monitoring the severe outcomes of COVID-19 and influenza, including the impact on hospitals. CDC’s National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) will remain open to accept data, and CDC and CDPH strongly encourage all facilities to continue reporting.” Thanks, Mandy!

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.

[7] (Walgreens) Fiddling and diddling.

[8] (Cleveland) Jumping.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time range. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) What the heck is LB.1?

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

Inflation: “United States Core PCE Price Index Annual Change” [Trading Economics]. “Tha annual increase in the core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge to measure underlying inflation, remained at 2.6% for a third straight month in July of 2024.”

Personal Income: “United States Personal Income” [Trading Economics]. “US personal income rose by 0.3% from the previous month to $24.015 trillion in July of 2024, up from a 0.2% increase in the previous month and above market forecasts of a 0.2% rise. Compensation of employees rose by 0.3%, same as the previous month, as wages and salaries grew further (0.3% vs 0.2% in June) and supplements to wages and salaries maintained the same growth rate as June at 0.3%.”

Manufactiuring: “United States Chicago PMI” [Trading Economics]. “The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, rose to 46.1 in August 2024, up from 45.3 in the prior month and surpassing market estimates of 45.5. The latest reading still shows a significant decline in Chicago’s economic activity for the ninth consecutive month, although it remains comfortably above the year-to-date average of 42.9.”

Supply Chain: “The union representing dockworkers at ports from Maine to Texas says they are ‘at an impasse’ with employers, and the real negotiations haven’t started yet. The deadlock is one sign of the high stakes in the dealing over a new labor contract that is taking place under threat of a strike at some of the biggest ports in the U.S.” [Wall Street Journal]. “[O]fficials at the International Longshoremen’s Association are due to meet next week in New Jersey to go over their wage demands and to set the table for a walkout that could begin Oct. 1. The ILA is pushing for a 77% increase for workers over six years, far more than the 32% increase the International Longshore and Warehouse Union won for its members at West Coast ports last year. Employers at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports are offering half that, according to a person familiar with the talks.”

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 60 Greed (previous close: 57 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 54 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Aug 30 at 1:37:12 PM ET.

Class Warfare

“Workers Deserve Real Power. Unions Aren’t the Best Way to Get It” [New York Times]. “If the goal is to place workers on a level playing field with employers so that they can advocate their own interests effectively and share fully in the prosperity they help to create, then getting more workers into those unions is not the only way. It’s not even the best way. A more effective strategy is to ensure a tight labor market by constraining who employers can hire — in particular, by making it harder to offshore production to other countries or bring workers from other countries into the United States. Employers fight against such constraint tooth and nail because it forces them to improve the quality of the jobs they offer, to retain workers and draw people off the sidelines to fill open positions, and to invest in boosting productivity. A recent analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis illustrates this effect. Firms lamenting labor shortages and hiring challenges for routine manual tasks tend to invest more and achieve larger productivity gains. Senator JD Vance has articulated the point well, warning that support for the free movement of labor across national borders ‘decimates the bargaining power of workers’ by offering employers less expensive alternatives, while constraining access to inexpensive labor is ‘a tech-forward argument. If you can’t constantly do the same things with cheaper and cheaper labor, your economy is forced to innovate.’ Nor is America’s existing union model, codified by the Depression-era National Labor Relations Act, the only form a vibrant labor movement might take. In most of Europe, for instance, unions operate at the industry level rather than having to fight for recognition company by company.”

News of the Wired

“The Secret Inside One Million Checkboxes” [

AF writes: “Black Swallowtail caterpillar munching on parsley.”

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