The 2022 severe weather season has been active so far across much of the nation. Tuesday brings a severe weather risk zone further north into much of southern Minnesota.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center paints a slight risk (yellow) across most of southern Minnesota Tuesday, with a marginal risk (green) in most of the greater Twin Cities area.
You can see specific locations and risk categories for southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin at the top of this post.
Tuesday’s severe weather risk zone is part of a much larger area of severe weather risk. An enhanced risk zone runs from Iowa all the way south to Texas Tuesday.
Severe weather risk Tuesday
NOAA
Strongest storms favor Tuesday evening
A low-pressure system drags a cold front through southern Minnesota late Tuesday. Scattered showers will drift through Minnesota Tuesday. The most likely concentrations of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will ride the cold front across southern Minnesota Tuesday evening.
NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model paints a developing cluster of storms near the advancing cold front moving east through southern Minnesota Tuesday evening:
NOAA HRRR model between 1 p.m. and 11 p.m. Tuesday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits
At this point, most forecast models favor the best chance for storms in the greater Twin Cities between about 8 p.m. and 11 p.m. Tuesday.
Specific storm timing and coverage may evolve Tuesday. Keep an eye out for severe weather watches and possible warnings for Minnesota Tuesday afternoon and evening.
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