There was a moment in early 2023 when Donald Trump seemed like a politician in decline.

And it wasn’t just his political opponents who thought so. National Republicans, who blamed Mr. Trump for the party’s run of bad results in the midterms, largely agreed.

But now it’s starting to set in: It appears the former president’s staying power was underestimated … again. Mr. Trump is the overwhelming favorite to be the Republican presidential nominee — and his supporters remain the most influential force in the party’s politics.

This week, through conversations at an event with South Carolina Republicans, we try to understand why the party continues to back an embattled Mr. Trump — and how it came to feel as though this primary ended before it even began. Then, Astead talks with Jonathan Swan, a New York Times political reporter, about how the Trump team has approached this campaign with discipline and strategy, and what it is planning should he win back the White House.

“The Run-Up” is your guide to understanding the 2024 election. Through on-the-ground reporting and conversations with New York Times colleagues, newsmakers and voters across the country, our host, Astead W. Herndon, takes us beyond the horse race to explore how we got to this unprecedented moment in American politics. New episodes on Thursdays.


“The Run-Up” is hosted by Astead W. Herndon and produced by Anna Foley, Elisa Gutierrez and Caitlin O’Keefe. The show is edited by Rachel Dry, Lisa Tobin and Frannie Carr Toth. Engineering by Sophia Lanman and original music by Dan Powell, Marion Lozano, Pat McCusker, Diane Wong and Elisheba Ittoop. Fact-checking by Caitlin Love.

Special thanks to Paula Szuchman, Sam Dolnick, Larissa Anderson, David Halbfinger, Tara Godvin, Renan Borelli, Mahima Chablani, Jeffrey Miranda and Maddy Masiello.