The war in Ukraine has again entered a new phase. With neither side believing that it can make significant territorial gains, the action has expanded beyond the front lines.
Over the past week, Russia has bombed Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, and other cities far from the front. The aim is not to gain territory, but to destroy infrastructure and wear down Ukrainians by making their lives harder. By doing so, Russia hopes to undermine the impressive national unity that Ukraine has maintained over the past two years.
Ukraine responded with missile attacks on the Russian city of Belgorod. Ukraine has also intensified its use of guerrilla tactics over the past few months. It blew up a train in Russia, used sea drones to attack Russia’s navy in the Black Sea and destroyed infrastructure in the Russian-controlled peninsula of Crimea. Ukraine is trying to demonstrate that it can still make progress, even as it has struggled to retake territory in the largely Russian-controlled Donbas.
The attacks are “an acknowledgment of the stalemate,” said Stacie Goddard, an international security expert at Wellesley College. “This is all they can do.”
Today’s newsletter explains why these tactics will likely define the war in the coming months.
A continued stalemate
The new phase is a response to disappointments that both sides have experienced. Russia failed to take Kyiv and topple Ukraine’s government in the early days of the war, and last year failed to expand its territory by much. It now controls about one-fifth of Ukrainian land, a large portion of which it seized in 2014, rather than during the current war.
Ukraine’s disappointments have been more recent. During a much anticipated counteroffensive that began last summer, Ukraine mostly failed to break through Russian lines in the east and southeast. Leaders on both sides have come to recognize that dislodging a dug-in enemy is extremely difficult.
Both sides’ militaries are also depleted. Russia’s army is running short on manpower and equipment. To carry out a new offensive, Russian President Vladimir Putin would most likely need to call a new draft, which might be unpopular and weaken public support for the war.
Ukraine’s troops are similarly exhausted, and its supplies are running low. Ukrainian battalions report that they have reduced their artillery firing by as much as 90 percent compared with last summer. “This is perhaps the bleakest time for Ukraine’s military,” my colleague Eric Schmitt, who covers national security, said.
Ukrainian officials argue that only more Western support can turn things around.
But it is not clear that aid will come. In Europe, far-right parties, which are less supportive of aid, have gained traction. Hungary’s far-right government recently blocked additional E.U. aid for Ukraine, and other countries are now trying to decide whether to offer support through other channels.
In the U.S., congressional Republicans have blocked further aid until Democrats agree to changes to immigration policy. And this year’s elections could put Donald Trump, who is skeptical of more aid, in the White House. “For Putin, the main events will be in Washington,” my colleague Julian Barnes said.
The coming months
A major question about the near term is whether the two sides will move closer to a peace agreement. Putin seems more open to a cease-fire that would let Russia keep the territory it has now, as The Times reported last month.
To that end, Russia seems focused on holding its gains and continuing to bomb Ukrainian cities to damage civilian morale. Russia is unlikely to carry out a big offensive, but it might try to make small advances in the parts of the Donbas that it doesn’t already control.
U.S. officials have advised Ukraine to rebuild this year, and not to attempt a new counteroffensive. Still, Ukrainian leaders believe that they need to show progress on the battlefield to shore up Western support. At the least, Ukraine is likely to continue its guerrilla tactics, sabotaging infrastructure deep in Russian territory and hitting Russia’s navy.
Wars are unpredictable, and a surprising breakthrough from either side remains possible. But the chances have risen that the next 12 months of war will end up in a stalemate.
For more: North Korea is giving Russia ballistic missiles for its war in Ukraine in exchange for Russian fighter jets and other military technology, the White House said.
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