Opinion | How Trump Could Institute a Backdoor Federal Abortion Ban

For many Americans who support abortion rights, the election in November will most likely come down to a choice between voting for President Biden and staying home. They won’t vote for the man who ensured Roe v. Wade’s demise, but many of them are unenthusiastic about the prospect of Mr. Biden being the Democratic nominee.

So for the Democratic Party, motivating voters on this issue will be key. Mr. Biden’s advisers clearly know this and have sent him and Vice President Kamala Harris on something of a speaking tour this month to highlight their commitment to reproductive rights.

But it’s odd how the Biden-Harris campaign has chosen to speak about this issue, with a heavy focus on their plan to “codify Roe.” Bold congressional action on abortion is unlikely from either side: A federal abortion ban under a second Trump administration is implausible, but it is also unlikely that this Congress, or the next, passes legislation, like the Women’s Health Protection Act, to bring back the protections that were in Roe.

What is plausible is that, returned to the White House, Donald Trump would seek to use his executive power — power that his allies are aiming to increase on his behalf — to further curtail abortion access. He might seem uninterested in doing much of anything about abortion now, on the campaign trail, which is a shrewd political move, given how unpopular abortion bans have proven to be since Roe’s reversal. But that could well change when he is in office again. And Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris would be wise to make clear to voters the real risks of a second Trump presidency for abortion access.

This election is the most consequential for reproductive rights in half a century — a referendum on whether voters continue to be the ones to decide on this issue, or whether instead conservatives in the executive branch will decide for them.

The destruction of Roe in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization was never going to be the end of the battle over abortion rights in America. Since Dobbs, progressive as well as swing states have passed ballot initiatives protecting or enshrining reproductive rights. Polls demonstrate near record support for legal abortion.