Milei’s government appears to be determined to turn Argentina into the first Latin American country to send weapons to Ukraine.
In April we warned that Javier Milei Seems Intent on Embroiling Argentina in War, Whether in Ukraine or the Middle East (Or Both). At that time, the Argentine president had just expressed “solidarity and unwavering commitment” to the State of Israel following Iran’s retaliatory attacks on Israel after Israel’s bombings of the Iranian embassy in Damascus. After holding a cabinet meeting attended, if not chaired, by Israel’s ambassador to Argentina, Milei allegedly said off-screen that Argentina “cannot be neutral in the Third World War”.
“Milei is determined to take sides in international conflicts, believing that this positions him as an international leader,” says geopolitical analyst Gonzalo Fiore Viani. “Everything he does is to reinforce that image and not to advance Argentina’s national interests.”
Milei seems determined to involve Argentina not only in the escalating tensions in the Middle East, but also in the meat grinder that is Ukraine. Yesterday, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III welcomed Argentina as a new member of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (aka Ramstein Group) during his opening address at the group’s 23rd meeting. The Ramstein Group is an alliance of (mainly NATO) countries that meets monthly at the Ramstein air base in Germany to coordinate the ongoing donation of military aid to the Zelensky government.
A “Gift” for Zelensky
During his upcoming tour of Europe, Milei will participate in the G7 summit in Orgo Egnazia between June 13 and 15, at the invitation of Italian PM Georgia Meloni. He will also take part in the pie-in-the-sky Summit on Peace in Ukraine in Geneva on June 15-16, in which Russia, like many other prominent non-NATO countries, has refused to participate, describing the event as “irrelevant”. As for Milei’s government, it appears to determined to turn Argentina into the first Latin American country to send weapons to Ukraine.
In an interview with CNN Español’s Andrés Oppenheimer in April, Milei even entertained the possibility of sending military personnel into the meat grinder, a proposal that enjoys the support of just 21% of the population, according to a survey by the consultant Gustavo Córdoba. Any decision to send troops would have to go through Congress first, an unnamed diplomatic source told La Politica Online.
The same is not true of sending arms. A new article by Infobae suggests that Milei wants to gift Ukraine’s (now wholly unelected) President Volodymyr Zelensky five French-made fighter jets (readers will have to excuse the rather crude pro-NATO propaganda in the first paragraph):
Javier Milei approved a plan designed by Luis Petri and Diana Mondino to support Ukraine’s war effort against Russia, which started an illegal war in Europe to fulfill Vladimir Putin’s imperial dreams.
It involves sending to Volodimir Zelensky’s government five Super Etendard combat aircraft that are out of use due to the embargo that Great Britain applies against Argentina as a result of the Malvinas War.
France’s participation is key to overcoming this geopolitical obstacle, and Chancellor Mondino and Defense Minister Luis Petri have been working for weeks to advance this secret move that also involves the United States and NATO.
Mondino discussed this complex issue during the meetings he held in Paris with Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné, in a secret meeting she held with NATO in Brussels, and when she visited Jake Sullivan… at the… White House.
So, the plan has been discussed at the highest levels, though it is not yet clear whether it enjoys the all-essential blessing of the Biden administration. As readers may recall, Washington, Kiev and Brussels already tried to persuade Latin American countries to donate their Russian-made weaponry to Ukraine’s war effort, to no avail.
By this point, NATO’s demoralised members are presumably delighted to bring any new country on board with project Ukraine, even one with so little money or weaponry to offer. At the Ramstein Group meeting, Lloyd Austin seized on Argentina’s membership as evidence that “support for Ukraine is growing and not waning”.
Serious Flaws
The planes plan has serious flaws, of course. First, it is likely to spell disaster for Argentina’s diplomatic relationship with Russia, as well as possibly with key Russian allies such as Beijing. As the Argentine defence specialist Daniel Blinder told Sputnik Español, as long as Milei’s government seeks “unfettered alignment” with the US, it risks generating a “significant confrontation with Russia and China* that could go very badly.”
If the operation goes ahead, it would mean “embroiling Argentina in a far-flung conflict in a region that is of no strategic interest to the country,” says Fiore. It would also mean directly interfering with the geopolitical interests of Russia, a country with whom Buenos Aires has historically enjoyed “good relations” and which even supports Argentina’s claim to sovereignty over the Malvinas (Falklands Islands). Even more importantly, Russia is pushing to expand its strategic and military influence in Latin America.
Second, and most important of all, the planes themselves are incapable of flying. Indeed, they haven’t left the ground since arriving in Argentina in 2019. The reason is simple: they do not have the necessary cartridges to eject the pilot’s seat in the case of an emergency. Said cartridges are manufactured in the United Kingdom, which has an embargo on all weapons sales to Argentina. The then-Macri government in Argentina was given advance warning of this fact but still bought the planes.
In 2016, France’s Ministry of Armed Forces sent a letter informing the Macri government not only that the “UK’s restrictions on exports to Argentina prevent us from getting spare parts for the ejection seats” but also that the planes themselves had been retired years earlier. This meant there would no longer be the necessary personnel to repair and maintain the planes after any sail. The Macri government bought the planes anyway for €12.5 million a piece.
Now, Milei’s government seems quite prepared to jettison its relations with Russia, the world’s biggest nuclear power, for the sake of five flightless planes. To conceal its involvement, Milei’s foreign and defence ministers have apparently proposed giving the five Super Etendard jets to the French armed forces in exchange for other military equipment, such as drones or helicopters. That way, they seem to think, Putin would not realise that Argentina was participating in the Ukraine conflict and the Macron government would be able to install new cartridges in the ejection seats so that the jets arrive in Ukraine in tip-top shape.
This new plan is arguably even more flawed than the original one. First, it rests on the assumption that Russia would be easily duped. If any deal does go down, Russia’s retribution will presumably be swift and asymmetrical — just as happened when Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa government offered to give up its Russian-made arms to Ukraine, claiming they were mere worthless “scrap”, in exchange for $200 million of US weapons. The Russians responded by threatening to boycott Ecuador’s number-one export product, bananas. Within days, Noboa had scrapped the plan.
Second, if the Milei government’s plan does indeed go ahead (a big “IF”), by the time all the parts are in place, Macron may no longer even be president of France. After suffering a brutal drubbing in the recent EU elections, the French president has called snap elections for the end of June. This has sparked all manner of mayhem and speculation, and while Macron is likely, once again, to stave off defeat in the second round of voting despite his anaemic approval ratings, there are no guarantees.
In the end, Argentina’s Super Etendard jets are probably destined to remain grounded and mothballed at the Puerto Belgrano air-naval base for the foreseeable future. “High-level” sources in the armed forces cited by the respected military publication Zona Militar have “categorically denied any plan by the current Argentine government to transfer these combat aircraft to another country.” The jets, it says, are in no fit state for commissioning, let alone a transfer abroad. The operation would also reduce the capabilities of Argentina’s Armed Forces, which have sought for years to recover some of the air capacity lost over recent decades.
Even if the Milei government were to send a consignment of weapons to Ukraine, they will, of course, have next to no material impact on the course of the war — especially if they don’t take work! But it will still cost the stagflation-battered country money it quite simply doesn’t have.
* China is Argentina’s second largest trade partner as well as a vital creditor that Milei desperately needs to keep on board. This week, Beijing agreed to renew its currency swap with Buenos Aires, defusing fears that Milei’s cash-strapped government would have to repay $5 billion to the Asian super power in the next few months. This gives Argentina’s stagflation-hit economy a little much-needed breathing space.
But it comes at a price for Milei, who has apparently agreed to visit Beijing for a bilateral meeting with with Xi Jinping, who will presumably treat his guest to generous helpings of finely spiced humble pie. On the campaign trail, Milei famously described the Chinese government as an assassin and said he would never deal with communist regimes. The irony is that if the meeting takes place as scheduled in early July, it will mean that Milei will have paid his first diplomatic visit to Beijing before even receiving an invite to the White House.