Biden’s future or potential lack thereof continues to dominate the news, as lead stories in the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and Financial Times confirm. A key sign came with Nancy Pelosi’s appearance on Morning Joe yesterday, where she looked to be engaging in an over-caffeinated version of damning with faint praise. As you can see below, she gave an over-the-top review of Biden’s record and his performance at the current NATO summit, while insisting that Biden needed to decide what to do about his candidacy…and stuck to her guns as the hosts pressed her that Biden had already decided. This segment is watchable at 1.5x, with critical exchange starting at 3:24:
As you can see, Pelosi adopts the posture that Biden could not have decided to withdraw from with the NATO summit pending, that that would have damaged US interests.1
The Hill confirms that there’s no doubt about Pelosi’s message:
The Financial Times focused on how big donors were refusing to fund the Biden campaign, as well as not just high profile but also noisy defections like George Clooney. From Democratic donors warn of campaign funds ‘drying up’ as Joe Biden holds on:
Democratic donors have warned that funding for the November election effort is “drying up” because of Joe Biden’s refusal to step aside, threatening to undermine the party’s effort to defeat Donald Trump….
Their increasing willingness to walk away from the campaign, mentioned in interviews with donors from Wall Street to Hollywood, poses a new existential risk to Biden’s re-election if he stays in a White House race expected to be the most expensive in US history.
“As of today, it would be very difficult to raise major donor money for the president,” said one New York-based Democratic donor. “It is so quickly unravelling that it is going to be extraordinarily difficult for him to stay in the race.”
Another donor involved in the party for decades said the money was “in the process of drying up”. The donor added: “Nine to one when I talk to other donors, they’re not planning on contributing . . . because they’re concerned about losing.”…
But much of the White House’s political operation over the past week has focused on wavering Democratic officeholders, particularly on Capitol Hill — although Biden also held calls with governors and mayors in a bid to reassure them….
But donors have been less constrained, with several high-profile Biden supporters — including Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings, hotel mogul Stewart Bainum Jr and actor George Clooney — explicitly citing the president’s mental acuity in their calls for him to drop out.
Confirming the Financial Times account on donors pulling back, CNN reported Wednesday evening that a Chicago fundraiser was just cancelled:
Meanwhile, organizers for at least one Chicago fundraiser scheduled during the Democratic National Convention have decided to not to proceed with the mid-August event, a source with knowledge of the discussions told CNN….
The event, designed as a lunch for a few dozen wealthy Windy City denizens, was expected to rally support among the party’s loyal and well-heeled locals in a show of support for the big event in their backyard.
Note that the oft-cited fundraiser shortly after the debate that got a $38 million haul was previously scheduled and so is not a good indicator of Biden’s present prospects. One contact with senior Democratic party and operative contacts said the campaign was touting its supposedly strong results with small donors: “They’ve never been important to Biden. We’ll see if anything has changed when the next reports come out.”2
To continue with the high-profile defections, which will confirm donor decisions to sit on their wallets: George Clooney weighed in not with casual remarks at a talk show, but via a New York Times op-ed. Key sections from George Clooney: I Love Joe Biden. But We Need a New Nominee:
I’m a lifelong Democrat; I make no apologies for that….Last month I co-hosted the single largest fund-raiser supporting any Democratic candidate ever, for President Biden’s re-election….
I love Joe Biden. As a senator. As a vice president and as president. I consider him a friend, and I believe in him….
But the one battle he cannot win is the fight against time. None of us can. It’s devastating to say it, but the Joe Biden I was with three weeks ago at the fund-raiser was not the Joe “big F-ing deal” Biden of 2010. He wasn’t even the Joe Biden of 2020. He was the same man we all witnessed at the debate.
The Journal stuck the shiv in with its new story, The Night President Biden Lost George Clooney’s Support:
The president received a standing ovation when he took the stage. But for some audience members, the mood changed when he started taking questions.
To some in the audience, Biden appeared at times to struggle through answers or keep up with the conversationalists, a harbinger of what millions of Americans would see in the debate weeks later….
When Kimmel joked at the Los Angeles’s Peacock Theater that he had given his son, Billy, a stuffed animal of the president’s dog, “and it bit Billy’s toe off,” the president didn’t register an immediate response—but Obama chimed in with a reference to his Affordable Care Act, quipping, “Fortunately he’s covered!”
In a video taken at the event, Biden is halting in his delivery of some responses.
For the most part, the conversation flows, but to some in the room Biden, who had just returned from the G-7 summit in Europe, seemed to have a hard time keeping up with Kimmel’s quick patter. Obama seemed to pick up loose threads in Biden’s responses, and filled in gaps. One attendee who sat near the stage said it was clear to him by the end of the evening that the president wasn’t as sharp as he once was.
When the Financial Times story quoted early in this post went live, as you can see above, it included the argument that at least Team Biden had been successful in tamping down noise. It included this sop: “….no member of the official party leadership explicitly called on him to step aside.”
Erm, yes, he may not be among the party elite, but Democratic Representative Adam Smith of Washington State had called for Biden to withdraw before this piece ran:
MSNBC – 7/10/2024 – Rep. Adam Smith
“Joe Biden was not picked in 2020 because he was the only person that could beat Donald Trump. He was picked because he was the only person that could beat @BernieSanders” pic.twitter.com/xbdjotZFdj
— CaseStudyQB – #CeaseFireNOW (@CaseStudyQB) July 10, 2024
Similarly, Vermont Senator Peter Welch may not be a member of the Democratic party apparatus, but any Senate defection is significant. Welch joined the upper chamber only in 2023 but he was a state representative from 2007 till he ran successfully for the Senate. And he did it via a Washington Post op-ed, making it hard to ignore. From the Wall Street Journal:
Late Wednesday, Sen. Peter Welch of Vermont said Biden should withdraw “for the good of the country,” becoming the first Democratic senator to make such a call, and pointed to Vice President Kamala Harris as a capable successor. Writing in the Washington Post, Welch said his constituents “are worried that [Biden] can’t win this time, and they’re terrified of another Trump presidency.”
Welch’s remarks come despite reports of an aggressive, even vicious, Biden effort to crush nay-sayers. From IM Doc on July 7, of a conversation during a nature walk:
This guy has already given millions in donations this year alone. Solid blue Dem to the core….He also told me that Jill and Hunter are not going to be moved. They and I guess Joe have let everyone know that if they keep pushing – career destroying stuff will be leaked to the press on any number of the people pushing the resignation. Indeed, the cannons may be deployed very soon at a target or two just to make sure everyone knows where they stand. A prophylactic hit job. As he said, “a political hit job doing serious damage will get everyone’s attention – and Joe is already hit about as bad as possible. Retaliation means nothing to them.” He stated they have serious goods on about 90% of Dems in DC and many many of their major donors. There are very few if any who are willing to do the “Goldwater goes to Nixon” show. He is anticipating this is all going to get very ugly very quickly. It may also explain why this seems to be taking so long.
Just FYI – I have no idea what if any of this is true. Just someone who would be in the know shooting it off at the mouth. “Worse than despair” is how I would describe his affect right now.
Yours truly opined at the time that this would not work. Biden could not take donor money away, so they would remain powerful if he attempted to dirty them up. And if donors got the idea that Biden was targeting any in their ranks, they would circle their ranks at a bare minimum. IM Doc had reported early that attacks on Trump, specifically the New York tax case and then the Bragg prosecution, had not only accelerated the retreat of wealthy Silicon Valley and Hollywood donors from Biden, but had resulted in them shifting support from RFK, Jr. to Trump. And again, this is not a cohort one would see as native Trump backers.
On top of that, let us not forget the spook whisperers David Iganatius and more recently Sy Hersh have signaled Biden should withdraw from the presidential race. Biden cannot with a war with the CIA. It seems that at least a decent sized cohort in the agency has concluded he needs to go.
A fresh e-mail from IM Doc indicates that Biden trying to go nuclear against those calling for him to quit was not just a wild-eyed rumor:
We had an event with them [high-profile Hollywood-connected neighbors] and other neighbors this weekend. I was basically told the same story. Two disparate sources. The blackmail is ongoing right now. The Mark Warner thing earlier in the week was the shot across the bow. They were all at the Biden event in LA where Obama had to walk him off the stage. It was clear to all that Biden was horribly impaired. But agents, producers et al have made it crystal clear to them all not to say a word. They are all blitzed by the sudden change in the messaging. All of them have closed the purse strings and have started to donate to charity instead. I praised them strongly for that decision. I told them all they should give up on the politics shit and use their money to actually help people.
In case you wonder why the freakout among the Dem-connected is rising despite the thuggish Biden enforcement racket, it’s that he is indeed threatening to take the party down with him. The Senate seats up for re-election are likely to break for the Republicans, so if they lose the Presidency, they need to win back the House to prevent a Republican romp. Yet the trends are going the wrong way in the wake of the Biden debate debacle:
I see a lot of “well it’s all very complicated, none of us can really know” takes on Biden.
Friends. The man is turning NEW YORK into a battleground state. This isn’t very complicated.
If you’re arguing Biden shouldn’t step aside, at this point the burden of proof is on you. pic.twitter.com/ZAJyAf3FrU
— Aaron Regunberg (@AaronRegunberg) July 10, 2024
But Biden is capable of burning the house down rather than going willingly. From Semafor:
The message coming from the White House is clear: Biden isn’t going anywhere, and if you come after him you’ll be the one who gets blamed for undermining the party’s general election chances….
What Biden can do is be stubborn in a way that sets up a scenario of mutually assured destruction for Democrats. So long as opponents of his nomination believe it’s impossible to force him to step aside, any escalation of their criticism risks damaging him even further in November. And the worse his standing gets, the more his party is likely to suffer up and down the ballot…
But Biden’s big advantage here is that it really is almost impossible to force him to step aside; he already won the support of the overwhelming majority of convention delegates, who are required to support him. Some Democrats have politely alluded to Biden having a big decision to make, or suggested he talk with his family, in the hopes of giving him space to potentially leave on his own. But if that doesn’t work, the next move would be to organize members to demand he pass the torch — perhaps privately to start, but then loudly if he refuses.
It’s not a very appetizing prospect. If Biden really is willing to fight a Democratic civil war, it would mean heading into convention season with key chunks of the party on the record with doubts about their nominee and pro-Biden factions accusing them of sabotage, all while Republicans quietly sit back and munch popcorn. Biden has been working hard to line up support from Black Democrats and labor — Congressional Black Caucus Chair Steven Horsford backed Biden Monday — setting up a potentially uncomfortable race and class dynamic to the fight as well.
Nevertheless I said from the outset, I don’t see how Biden survives his debate debacle, even before getting to the fact that Sy Hersh reported his decline in the last six months was rapid. Biden said only God could take him out of the race. God may oblige his request.
____
1 A DC-savvy contact said there were other coded messages to Biden, such as the discussion at 6:20 when Pelosi responded to the question of the concern of foreign leaders that Trump might be re-elected. She said there was reason to be concerned, described a series of Trump statements that were hostile to NATO and signaled an intent to reduce US commitments, and depicted a Trump win as a threat to national security. The contact said that was a message to Biden that his continuing in the race was a threat to national security. I see as going a bit too far with what Pelosi said but those more expert in the signals sent on high frequencies in the Beltway are encouraged to weigh in.
2 Another hopium strategy has been to point out that Trump beat Clinton even though Clinton had raised roughly twice as much money. First, Hillary was a singularly terrible candidate. Second, by all accounts, she ran a gold-plated campaign, far more heavily staffed than necessary, and at eyebrowraising pay levels. And third, as “money in politics” expert Tom Ferguson pointed out, the Trump campaign held back a great deal of funds and did a very heavy ad blitz at the end, considerably outspending Clinton in the last two weeks. As we also now know, Jared Kushner led a team that analyzed carefully as to what media markets were most important (including but not limited to swing states) and looks to have done a good job.
