Trump May Claim Credit for Stock Surges, but the Reality Is Far More Complicated

As president, Donald J. Trump continually took credit for a rising stock market, citing it as evidence that his economic policies were enriching Americans.

Now, Mr. Trump is again using the stock market as a barometer — attributing its rise earlier this year to excitement about his candidacy and blaming his rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, when stocks recently wobbled.

As the S&P 500 nears another record high, the stock market could be featured further as a talking point on the campaign trail. Although President Biden has been less emphatic in his stock market proclamations, he, too, has cited it as a sign of a healthy economy under his watch.

The reality of what drives Wall Street is much more complicated. Stocks, like the economy, ebb and flow for many reasons. While the outlook for White House policy can be one of them, big and sustained moves in the overall market have historically had more to do with other things, from the Federal Reserve’s decisions to the potential for new corporate innovation like artificial intelligence.

“I think markets are politically agnostic,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco. “With good reason, because it doesn’t really matter.”