Historical memory is bound to shape the first reaction to the powerful showing of a far-right party in two German state elections on Sunday. Nonetheless, there is nothing specifically German in the appeal of populism and extremism, especially among populations confused and threatened by a complex, unstable and vaguely threatening world. It’s endemic in the former Soviet satellites, but familiar, too, in the most venerable democracies.
It was populism and extremism that won in Sunday’s elections in the neighboring states of Thuringia and Saxony, both in what was formerly East Germany. The Alternative for Germany (AfD), an anti-immigrant, anti-Islam, anti-European Union party that has been formally branded extremist in both states, came in first in Thuringia and second in Saxony, while a strange left-conservative populist hybrid, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, known by its German initials, B.S.W., and named after the former Communist who formed it a few months ago, came in third in both.
That raises some problems, and many questions.
The immediate problem will be how to form governments in the two states. B.S.W., like every other party, has declared that it will not join in any coalition with AfD, so the center-right Christian Democratic Union, the only mainstream party to make a respectable showing in either state, will probably have to try to form coalition governments with B.S.W. and other left-wing parties. It won’t be easy.
One immediate question is what the results might mean for Germany’s critical support for Ukraine. Though at opposite ends of the political spectrum, AfD and B.S.W. have almost indistinguishable positions on the resentments they feed on, including immigration and Ukraine. Both are friendly to Russia and against supporting Ukraine. German foreign policy is shaped by the federal government, which is not likely to reduce Germany’s military or political support for Ukraine anytime soon. But a signal has been sent.
The rapid rise of the AfD in eastern Germany also raises inevitable anxieties born of history: Is Nazism coming back? The leader of the AfD, Björn Höcke, has not helped with his repeated use of Nazi rhetoric in his speeches, and many Germans have demanded that AfD be banned.
Another question, though, is whether extremism and populism are unique to Germany. Many former East European populations — those of Poland and Hungary come to mind — still nurture a resentment over the perception that they are somehow second-class members of Western society, that their way of life is threatened by alien social norms imposed by a distant European Union and by alien immigrants. And populism is hardly unfamiliar in Western democracies like France, Britain, and thanks to the MAGA movement, the United States.
In eastern Germany, that sense is intensified by the fact that the West is the same country. Thuringia was one of the states most devastated by the collapse of industries that followed the reunification of Germany, and though its economy has rebounded somewhat, it still suffers from a westward exodus, especially of young women. The AfD party successfully targeted young men with messages like: “Real men stand on the far right. Real men are patriots. That’s the way to find a girlfriend!”