By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Bird Song of the Day
Brown Thrasher, Wannagan Creek Cabin area, Billings, North Dakota, United States.
In Case You Might Miss…
- Trump transition confirmation process.
- DOGE as procurement capture?
- Tiktok users flee to RedNote.
- Boeing delivery woes.
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Spook Country
“Head of Infamous “Information Disorder” Commission Promoted at NPR” [Matt Taibbi, Racket News]. “Amid a busy news day Monday, a familiar figure was named Chief Operating Officer of National Public Radio. Ryan Merkley, who directed the Aspen Institute’s Commission on Information Disorder and also appeared in the Twitter Files as Wikimedia’s liaison to ‘Industry Meetings’ with federal law enforcement, was elevated to the job by NPR president/Titania McGrath clone Katherine Maher…. Merkley’s name figured in several high-profile efforts to control ‘disinformation’ through aggressive content moderation…. Digital censorship years ago expanded beyond removing content, as key actors saw opportunities to promote political objectives like correcting historical injustices or advancing diversity goals by expanding the definition of ‘misinformation.’ NPR has long been an outlet in alignment with Aspen ideas, which became clear when former business editor Uri Berliner last April penned a whistleblowing essay in The Free Press. Beliner pointed among other things to NPR’s statement about the Hunter Biden laptop story: ‘We don’t want to waste our time on stories that are not really stories.’ It may be that these moves become moot shortly, but they’re worth pointing out nonetheless.” • Or maybe not. See Susie Wiles below.
Trump Transition
Energy in the executive:
True or false, it’s interesting that Haaretz published it, and “it’s out there.”
“The Trump Factor: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Appears Close” [Jeremy Scahill, Dropsite News]. “The fact that Trump emerged as the decisive player in pushing a potential ceasefire forward is evidence that Biden never used the full powers available to a sitting U.S. president to seal the deal in the summer. While Trump has publicly repeated his threat that he will ‘unleash hell’ on Hamas if the Israeli hostages are not freed, his pressure has not been solely focused on Hamas; Trump and his aides have made clear to Netanyahu that the president-elect expects Israel to comply with his demands, too. ‘I understand… there’s been a handshake and they are getting it finished—and maybe by the end of the week,’ Trump told Newsmax Monday night.”
“Almost 8,000 soldiers bussed in for Trump’s ‘peaceful transition’” [Telegraph]. “Almost 25,000 police officers and 7,800 soldiers will descend on Washington DC for Donald Trump’s inauguration on Monday, officials have said, as the capital prepares for a ‘peaceful transfer of power.’ Two FBI field offices, a fleet of drones and more than 30 miles of fencing will be used to keep Mr Trump, other world leaders and attendees safe as he takes the presidential oath of office for the second time. Local and federal officials revealed the security plans for the ceremony on Monday, and said that despite receiving no specific threats against the president-elect, they are ‘prepared’ for the worst.” • Presumably the “world leaders” are also bringing their own security with them, too.
“Some Trump nominees face confirmation delays with ethics and background checks behind schedule” [Government Executive]. “Senate Republicans are pausing the confirmation process for some of President-elect Trump’s picks to lead agencies over delays in the vetting process as watchdogs and Democrats continue to press leadership not to move forward without first considering the finances and other parts of would-be cabinet members’ backgrounds. Lawmakers are hurrying to get at least some of Trump’s nominees into place by Inauguration Day next week, though some Senate committee chairs have said they are awaiting background checks from the FBI or reviews by the Office of Government Ethics. Some of those steps were delayed after Trump’s team spent months holding off the transition process. Many of Trump’s intended cabinet picks were scheduled for confirmation hearings this week, but some of those have since been postponed as relevant committees are awaiting background information secretary-designates. That will likely mean Trump has fewer of his picks confirmed on his first day in office than Senate Republicans had initially hoped for.”
“Scoop: Trump team sets red line on Hegseth’s FBI background check” [Axios]. “Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth’s confirmation hearing is becoming a test of will for Republicans on ensuring FBI files aren’t distributed throughout the entire Senate. The Trump transition team is demanding that the president-elect’s nominees be treated the same way they insist Joe Biden’s were. That means no FBI background check access for rank-and-file senators, according to two people familiar with the matter.”
Lawfare
“Hunter Biden special counsel hits out at president’s selective prosecution claim” [Guardian]. “The criminal charges against Hunter Biden ‘were the culmination of thorough, impartial investigations, not partisan politics’, the prosecutor who led the inquiries said in a report that sharply criticized Joe Biden for having maligned the US justice department when the president pardoned his son. ‘Other presidents have pardoned family members, but in doing so, none have taken the occasion as an opportunity to malign the public servants at the Department of Justice based solely on false accusations,’ said Monday’s report from special counsel David Weiss, whose team filed gun and tax charges against the younger Biden that resulted in felony convictions that were subsequently wiped away by a presidential pardon from his father.”
DOGE
“Understanding DOGE as Procurement Capture” [Anil Dash]. “Now, imagine you were a tycoon who is also a defense contractor that is trying to sell hundreds of billions of dollars of military equipment to the government, and you know that the procurement process requires them to go with the lowest bidder. But, since you’re a dude with hundreds of billions of dollars, it doesn’t seem fair that the system isn’t even more rigged in your favor. How would you “fix” this system? Well, you’d have to capture procurement… Say you’re a government employee trying to figure out who to buy rockets from. Maybe it better be from the guy who runs the “department” that’s in charge of deciding where money gets spent in the government! But what if you’re that government employee and you’re still trying to do things by the book, and follow the laws as written, and listen to the process that says you should go with the lowest bidder so you can spend less taxpayer money on things? Well, wouldn’t it be a shame if the guy who runs the “department” also ran a huge social media company, and also had started mentioning individual government employees by name, and had a rabid army of followers who consistently targeted those employees for violent threats — including death threats — and had in fact just carried out two different terrorist attacks in the last week while specifically talking about how enemies of this new regime needed to be targeted for violence? Would that be enough to get you to reconsider following those written policies? Maybe so.” • I don’t say it’s fanciful, and a phishing equilibrium is clearly possible, but I read it twice, and I don’t see procurement capture actually happening. Something to watch. And–
“Elon Musk Is Expected to Use Office Space in the White House Complex” [The New York Times]. “The space anticipated for Mr. Musk’s use is in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building, which is adjacent to the White House. The location would allow Mr. Musk, who owns companies with billions of dollars in contracts with the federal government, to continue to have significant access to President-elect Donald J. Trump when he takes office this month.” And: “It was not clear whether Vivek Ramaswamy, Mr. Musk’s partner in leading the project, would also have office space in the Eisenhower building.” Maybe Susie Wiles will let him have a kennel out on the lawn? Plus more on ethics rules and financial disclosures, criminal conflict of interest laws, FACA vs. “special government employee status”, and FOIA. I don’t expect President Musk to care much about such things, but presumably some smart Republican lawyers can figure something out. Or maybe they’ll just let ‘er rip! Something to watch.
Our Famously Free Press
“Washington Post traffic craters, loses $100M amid identity crisis as talent, readers flee: reports” [New York Post]. “The Washington Post’s readership reportedly cratered during Joe Biden’s presidency — and the Jeff Bezos-owned broadsheet lost $100 million last year alone — as the embattled paper continues to suffer an exodus of top talent. The left-leaning [sic] publication drew about 2.5 million to 3 million daily users to its site last summer, a fraction of the 22.5 million daily visitors at its peak when Biden took office in January 2021, according to internal data shared with Semafor. The plummeting site traffic led the business to lose around $100 million on weak subscription and ad revenue in 2024, the Wall Street Journal reported.” • I wonder what the Graham Family thinks of Jeff Bezos’s stewardship.
Republican Funhouse
“Trump made the GOP a big-tent party. Now, he’s stuck with the infighting” [Politico]. “A coalition of MAGA die-hards, tech bros and blue-collar workers were key to Donald Trump’s November victory. Now, some of them are already at each other’s throats. Free traders and protectionists are at odds over Trump’s promise to enact ‘universal’ tariffs. Immigration hard-liners are butting heads with tech companies that support legal immigration. And isolationists are grappling with the president-elect’s apparently increasingly expansionist global agenda. And days before he takes office some of Trump’s most ardent original supporters have been the most resistant to the bigger tent.” And: “But some Trump allies argue these divides are a feature — not a bug — of Trump’s governing style. During his first administration, the president-elect was known for running his Cabinet like an executive boardroom: He brought together a cadre of diverse interests, let them duke it out and then, on his own, decided the path forward. That strategy, of encouraging competition among his advisers, allowed Trump to retain the ultimate decision-making authority and prevented any one group from gaining too much power.” I believe FDR used a similar strategy. It’s a good one.
“As Trump prepares to take power, MAGA can’t stop the ugly infighting” [WaPo]. “[T]he MAGA movement has always been a loosely stitched-together confederation led by a man with relatively few ideological convictions. It and he have always been much more animated by Trump the man than any particular set of ideals. And because Trump has proved so malleable, there is a premium on being the one in his ear. That dynamic is already leading to a rash of infighting over who grabs that ear and guides both Trump and his base.
And the fight over what Trumpism means has gotten quite ugly quite quickly.” • I disagree on “ideals.” The H1B debate on X was policy, all the way. I awarded the win to MAGA, who knew the policy arguments cold (and had, in many cases, been personally affected). Trump sided with the tech bros against MAGA on that one (and who knows how that will play out). As for Trump being “malleable”…. I know it’s a talking point, but is it true? What do readers think?
“Texas Sends Millions to Crisis Pregnancy Centers. It’s Meant to Help Needy Families, But No One Knows if It Works” [ProPublica]. “Year after year, while Roe v. Wade was the law of the land, Texas legislators passed measures limiting access to abortion — who could have one, how and where. And with the same cadence, they added millions of dollars to a program designed to discourage people from terminating pregnancies. Their budget infusions for the Alternatives to Abortion program grew with almost every legislative session — first gradually, then dramatically — from $5 million starting in 2005 to $140 million after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the right to an abortion…. But an investigation by ProPublica and CBS News found that the system that funnels a growing pot of state money to anti-abortion nonprofits has few safeguards and is riddled with waste…. Lawmakers around the country are considering programs modeled on Alternatives to Abortion.” • NGOs, gotta love ’em.
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, thump, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Airborne Transmission
More good news from the schoolsL
I don’t oppose handwashing, but couldn’t AP have gotten a mask in there somewhere?
TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts
| Wastewater | |
| ★ This week[1] CDC January 10 | Last week[2] CDC (until next week): |
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| Variants [3] CDC December 21 | Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC January 4 |
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| Hospitalization | |
| ★ New York[5] New York State, data January 13: | National [6] CDC Janurary 9: |
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| Positivity | |
| National[7] Walgreens January 13: | Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic January 4: |
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| Travelers Data | |
| Positivity[9] CDC December 23: | Variants[10] CDC December 23 |
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| Deaths | |
| Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC January 4: | Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC January 4: |
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LEGEND 1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated. 2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.” NOTES [1] (CDC) Seeing more red and more orange, but nothing new at major hubs. [2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map. [3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection. [4] (ED) A little uptick. [5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely jumped. [6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out. [7] (Walgreens) Leveling out. [8] (Cleveland) Continued upward trend since, well, Thanksgiving. [9] (Travelers: Positivity) Leveling out. [10] (Travelers: Variants). Positivity is new, but variants have not yet been released. [11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out. [12] Deaths low, ED leveling out. Stats Watch Inflation: “United States Producer Prices” [Trading Economics]. “Producer Prices in the United States increased to 146.84 points in December from 146.52 points in November of 2024. Producer Prices in the United States averaged 118.02 points from 2009 until 2024, reaching an all time high of 146.84 points in December of 2024….” Business Optimism: “United States NFIB Business Optimism Index” [Trading Economics]. “The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US soared to 105.1 in December 2024, the highest since October 2018, compared to 101.7 in November and beating forecasts of 100.8. It is also the second consecutive month the reading stays above the 51-year average of 98, due to an improved economic outlook following the election. “Small business owners feel more certain and hopeful about the economic agenda of the new administration.’” Manufacturing: “Boeing delivered less than half as many planes as Airbus last year” [Quartz]. “Boeing delivered 57 commercial aircraftin the fourth quarter of last year, and 348 for the entire year, the Virginia-based plane manufacturer reported Tuesday. That’s down from a total of 611 deliveries in 2023…. [Airbus] reported last week that it delivered 766 commercial aircraft in 2024 — a 4% year-over-year increase and the most since 2019.” Manufacturing: “Boeing executive sees supply-demand balance by end of decade” [Investing.com]. ” Boeing expects to reach a balance between supply and market demand for passenger jets by the end of the decade, an executive said on Monday. ‘From my perspective that’s … about a five-year impact in terms of what we need to do … to get back to balance’ from the current supply deficit, Darren Hulst, Boeing’s vice president for commercial marketing, told the Airline Economics conference in Dublin.” • Not next quarter, then? Manufacturing: “Akasa Air grounds hundreds of pilots while awaiting Boeing MAX deliveries” [Aerotime]. “The Indian low-cost-carrier Akasa Air has grounded hundreds of pilots after the number of Boeing 737 MAX deliveries slowed in 2024. According to the publication The Hindu, around 400 individuals out of 850 pilots are currently grounded, with only 60% currently needed to fly its fleet of 26 aircraft…. Akasa Air co-founder and CEO Vinay Dube had initially scheduled to receive 72 aircraft by the fifth year of flying after its first commercial flight in August 2022. At the start of 2024 Akasa had received 22 MAX aircraft but deliveries slowed during the year with only three arriving.” Manufacturing: “The chart that proves Boeing has lost its battle with Airbus” [Telegraph]. “[I]t is now six years since Boeing last occupied the top spot in the airliner industry…. Nick Cunningham, an Aerospace analyst, said 2024 was ‘Boeing’s annus horribilis.’ He said: ‘You’d imagine that things really can only get better for Boeing, but it’s going to be a slow recovery because the problems run so deep. Kelly Ortberg, the new chief executive, is a really good man but there’s an awful lot to come back from. It’s a case of, ‘If you want to fix it, you really wouldn’t want to start from here.” … Boeing said it will provide an update on its production outlook with full-year earnings at the end of this month.” But: “Despite its crushing lead over Boeing, Airbus is also suffering from supply-chain issues. It originally targeted 800 plane deliveries for 2024, later revising the goal to about 770.” Tech: “Meta Is Blocking Links to Decentralized Instagram Competitor Pixelfed” [404 Media]. “Meta is deleting links to Pixelfed, a decentralized Instagram competitor. On Facebook, the company is labeling links to Pixelfed.social as ‘spam’ and deleting them immediately. Pixelfed is an open-source, community funded and decentralized image sharing platform that runs on Activity Pub, which is the same technology that supports Mastodon and other federated services. Pixelfed.social is the largest Pixelfed server, which was launched in 2018 but has gained renewed attention over the last week. Bluesky user AJ Sadauskas originally posted that links to Pixelfed were being deleted by Meta; 404 Media then also tried to post a link to Pixelfed on Facebook. It was immediately deleted.” And: “Pixelfed is experiencing a surge in user signups in recent days, after Meta announced that it would loosen its rules to allow users to call LGBTQ+ people “mentally ill” amid a host of other changes that shift the company overtly to the right. Meta and Instagram have also leaned heavily into AI-generated content. Pixelfed announced earlier Monday that it is launching an iOS app later this week.” • Streisand effect, among other things. Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 28 Fear (previous close: 26 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 35 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed).Last updated Jan 14 at 1:44:22 PM ET. Gallery Little bit of M.C. Escher going on? Climate Change vs. more of the same: Zeitgeist Watch “The Case for Letting Malibu Burn” [Long Reads]. • tl;dr: It always has. Well worth a read for the history. “What sparked the Palisades fire? A beloved hiking trail may hold the grim answers” [Los Angeles Times]. “Hikers and outdoor enthusiasts have long been drawn to Skull Rock north of Sunset Boulevard in Pacific Palisades…. Now, this area is the subject of an investigation as a potential starting point for the Palisades fire, which burned thousands of structures last week…. The general area was the site of a small fire on New Year’s Eve that burned for a few hours before fire officials said they snuffed it out with help from a water-dropping helicopter…. If it turns out the Palisades fire was caused by a rekindling of the earlier fire, it would fit a pattern. The massive Oakland Hills fire of 1991 — which destroyed more than 2,500 structures — exploded after firefighters thought they had contained it. That fire was originally six acres and was declared contained but not out.” • This also is worth a read; good detail. “Elon Musk Exposed Over Right-Wing Lie on L.A. Fires” [The New Republic]. “Elon Musk was fact-checked on his own livestream after making false statements about the California wildfires, and Gavin Newsom was quick to call out the tech mogul on social media. In a post on X Sunday night, the California governor posted an excerpt from the livestream, where Musk was receiving a briefing with the command team handling the Palisades fire in Los Angeles. Musk asked an emergency official twice about water to fight the fires being available in the Malibu area but not in the Palisades. The official corrected Musk, pointing out there was not a water shortage but that the fire required much more water than could be pumped.” Guillotine Watch “There Is No Safe Word” [Vultures]. The deck: “How the best-selling fantasy author Neil Gaiman hid the darkest parts of himself for decades.”• This is exceptionally creepy and nasty — way beyond “they were careless people, Tom and Daisy” — and I don’t really want to excerpt it. However, if you’ve seen oblique references to Neil Gaiman recently, this is the source. “Good Omens Author Neil Gaiman Accused of Alleged Sexual Abuse By Multiple Women” [People]. “In a Jan. 13 Vulture report, multiple women spoke on the record about their alleged experiences with the famed novelist, 64, including Scarlett Pavlovich, who formerly babysat for Gaiman and his ex-wife Amanda Palmer.” Palmer doesn’t come out real well either. But: “Gaiman has denied all allegations since 2023.” Class Warfare “Can nonviolent struggle defeat a dictator? This database emphatically says yes” [News of the Wired “Chinese social media app RedNote tops App Store chart ahead of TikTok ban” [ Doug writes: “Amaryllis and callicarpa from the front yard. The warm fall has produced some odd pairings such as this.” Neat concept for a climate-related photobook… Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. Material here is Lambert’s, and does not express the views of the Naked Capitalism site. If you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn’t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I’m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals: Here is the screen that will appear, which I have helpfully annotated:
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