2:00PM Water Cooler 1/28/2025 | naked capitalism

Bird Song of the Day

Brown Thrasher, Lake Wales; Bok Sanctuary, Florida, United States. From 1963!

In Case You Might Miss…

1. Trump strategy.
2. Taleb: Tech firms “grey swans”?
3. Ortberg soothes the analysts.
4. Andreessen predicts AI-driven wage crash (and that’s a good thing).
5. “Human Reproduction as Prisoner’s Dilemma”.

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Trump Administration

Energy in the executive:

“Trump: We’re Forging A New Political Majority That’s Shattering The New Deal Coalition” [RealClearPolitics]. President Donald Trump speaks at the House Republican Issues Conference at the Trump National Doral Miami Resort: “Together, we’re forging a new political majority that’s shattering and replacing Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal coalition, which dominated American politics for over 100 years…. If we do our job over the next 21 months, not only will House Republicans be reelected and expand our majority in 2026, we will cement a national governing coalition that will preserve American freedom for generations to come. There has never been anything like what’s happened in politics in the last few years.” • This, it seems to me, is the name of the game: Party (hence class) power. Presidential power is important, too, but which is more important? Party power, obviously, since without Party power a Democrat Administration could take over in 2028 and use all this “dictatorial” power for its own ends. Credit MAGA and Trump for understanding this, very much unlike the RINOs. (Another sign of Trump’s party leader perspective is the relative youth of so many of his appointments. If Hegseth, for example, doesn’t fall off the wagon or flame out, he’ll be around a long time. Unlike so many RINOs.)

“The Strategy Behind Trump’s Policy Blitz” [The Atlantic]. “The staff was still setting up dinner on Mar-a-Lago’s outdoor patio on a balmy early-January evening when Donald Trump sat down. He was surrounded by several top advisers who would soon join him in the West Wing and who wanted to get his input before his attention shifted to his wealthy guests and Palm Beach club members. Susie Wiles, the incoming chief of staff, led the conversation, listing some of the dozens of executive orders that had been teed up for Trump’s signature once he reclaimed the presidency. She wanted to talk about sequencing, according to a Trump adviser present at the meeting, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations. How would he like to stagger the orders over the first few weeks back in office? ‘No,’ Trump replied, this person told me. ‘I want to sign as many as possible as soon as we show up.’ ‘Day one,’ he said.’ Indeed. And: “Trump’s ubiquity is also a deliberate strategy, several of his aides and allies told me. Part of the point is to send a message to the American people that their self-declared ‘favorite’ president is getting things done. The person at the Palm Beach meeting and another Trump adviser, who also requested anonymity to describe private conversations, told me that the White House’s flood of orders and news is also designed to disorient already despairing Democratic foes, leaving them so battered that they won’t be able to mount a cohesive opposition.” • Certainly Trump is sending the “getting things done” message; the contrast to the molasses-brained Biden Administration is instructive. But “cohesive opposition” from Democrats? I think Trump’s clear election win foreclosed 2017-style resistance, for good or ill. (Also, a nice example of the interplay between Wiles and Trump.)

“Trump’s Dictatorial Theory of Presidential Power – What the Executive Orders, in the Aggregate, Tell Us” [JustSecurity]. “On issue after issue, Trump claims that the Constitution directly empowers him to take certain actions, without any authorization by Congress and in the face of contrary statutes. The idea that the Constitution directly confers certain powers on the President is, by itself, neither new nor controversial. Yet in many of these orders, Trump is not simply asserting an inherent constitutional power to act. He is claiming a power to act in ways that clearly conflict with existing federal statutes. That is, he is asserting a constitutional prerogative to ignore, disregard, or even openly violate federal laws that are inconsistent with his policy agenda. Assertions of that general sort have been made in the past, and it is clear that the Constitution does confer on the President some exclusive powers that Congress may not regulate or restrict. Examples include the President’s power to veto proposed legislation, to grant pardons, to remove high-ranking executive officers he has appointed, and to recognize foreign governments. But these are the exceptions, not the rule. As Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett put it in her concurring opinion in the Trump immunity case, ‘the Constitution does not vest every exercise of executive power in the President’s sole discretion. … Congress has concurrent authority over many Government functions, and it may sometimes use that authority to regulate the President’s official conduct.’ Chief Justice John Roberts’ majority opinion in that case was sloppy and ill-reasoned in many respects, but neither he nor anyone else on the Court disagreed with Justice Barrett on this basic point. Indeed, Roberts relied heavily on Justice Robert Jackson’s concurring opinion in Youngstown Sheet and Tube Co. v. Sawyer, the steel seizure case. There, Jackson famously emphasized that presidential assertions of power to contravene federal law ‘must be scrutinized with caution, for what is at stake is the equilibrium established by our constitutional system.’ Trump’s recent executive orders would completely upend that equilibrium. He appears to be asserting a roving authority to override or simply ignore binding federal legislation whenever it interferes with his policy aims — regardless of whether the context is one of foreign affairs or national emergency. It is as though Trump is reprising his claim from his 2016 nomination acceptance speech that he alone can address the vital needs of the nation, but extending it to say that he alone has a mandate to suspend the law in pursuit of his goals.” • User tik-tok and birthright citizenship as examples. This is well worth a read (and the fact that material of this clarity is coming from the spook-adjacent lawfare community makes me want to hurl.

“The Problem With a President’s ‘First 100 Days’” [Foreign Policy]. “[T]he contemporary notion of the first 100 days took hold under Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1933. Following an inaugural address in which Roosevelt assured the nation that it had nothing to ‘fear but fear itself,’ he tried to show this principle in practice by confronting the massive crisis of the Great Depression in a proactive manner. Rather than waiting for the crisis to subside, Roosevelt would push Congress to legislate. Coupled with the fireside chats that he delivered on the radio to alleviate national insecurity, Roosevelt was able to move an unprecedented slate of major legislation through Congress.” You can see the parallel to Trump here: legislation vs. executive orders; fireside chat vs media firehose. But: “But the reality is that evaluating presidents through the 100 days framework has always been a limited tool…. Jimmy Carter, who many in the media considered as having an extremely successful 100 days—which included signing the Reorganization Act, which would allow the president to reorganize the executive branch in pursuit of efficiency; and an economic stimulus package that he signed into law 2 weeks after the 100 Days ended—suffered so much during the next few years that his reputation ended up being exactly the opposite of a leader who understood how to move the political needle.”

“Breaking: The Handbasket is first to report catastrophic OMB funding memo” [The Handbasket]. “A copy of the memo from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) was provided to The Handbasket at approximately 5pm ET by a source whose anonymity is being protected for fear of professional retribution…. It is a truly unhinged document that sounds like it was written by the world’s most petty 4Chan poster—but then again, that’s who’s currently running our federal government. Here’s the first paragraph to get a feel for it (emphasis mine):

The American people elected Donald J. Trump to be President of the United States and gave him a mandate to increase the impact of every federal taxpayer dollar. In Fiscal Year 2024, of the nearly $10 trillion that the Federal Government spent, more than $3 trillion was Federal financial assistance, such as grants and loans. Career and political appointees in the Executive Branch have a duty to align Federal spending and action with the will of the American people as expressed through Presidential priorities. Financial assistance should be dedicated to advancing Administration priorities, focusing taxpayer dollars to advance a stronger and safer America, eliminating the financial burden of inflation for citizens, unleashing American energy and manufacturing, ending “wokeness” and the weaponization of government, promoting efficiency in government, and Making America Healthy Again. The use of Federal resources to advance Marxist equity, transgenderism, and green new deal social engineering policies is a waste of taxpayer dollars that does not improve the day-to-day lives of those we serve.

One of the more irritating things about MAGA and movement conservatives in general is that they seem to think that the Frankfurt School and people like Marcuse and his degenerate descendants like Robin DiAngelo or Ibrama Kendi are Marxists. Do you hear the DEI people talking about the working class owning and controlling the means of production? About democratic control of capital? No? On the bright side, “Know your enemy,” as Sun Tzu famously said.

“Top USAID career staff placed on immediate leave” [Politico]. “The Trump administration has ordered dozens of top career employees of the U.S. Agency for International Development to go on administrative leave, according to six people told of the decision…. The decision appears to affect nearly every career staffer who holds a top leadership role at the agency, at least in Washington — around 60 officials, the current and former officials said. The cuts have left many offices within the agency entirely devoid of senior non-political leadership. The entire cadre of leaders who run USAID’s bureau for global health, for example, was put on leave, according to two of the officials. ‘This is a huge morale hit,’ said a former senior Trump administration official who was also told of the move. ‘This is the leadership of the agency. This is like taking out all the generals. I don’t know what they hope to accomplish by it.’” • Insofar as they’re spooks, I’m not crying.

“Trump Administration Halts H.I.V. Drug Distribution in Poor Countries” [New York Times]. The deck: “PEPFAR’s computer systems also are being taken offline, a sign that the program may not return, as Republican critics had hoped.” More: “The Trump administration has instructed organizations in other countries to stop disbursing H.I.V. medications purchased with U.S. aid, even if the drugs have already been obtained and are sitting in local clinics. The directive is part of a broader freeze on foreign aid initiated last week. It includes the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, the global health program started by George W. Bush that is credited with saving more than 25 million lives worldwide. The administration had already moved to stop PEPFAR funding from moving to clinics, hospitals and other organizations in low-income countries. Appointments are being canceled, and patients are being turned away from clinics, according to people with knowledge of the situation who feared retribution if they spoke publicly. Many people with H.I.V. are facing abrupt interruptions to their treatment. But most federal officials are also under strict orders not to communicate with external partners, leading to confusion and anxiety, according to several people with knowledge of the situation.”

“Trump Administration Payment Freeze May Delay Money For Critical Preschool Program” [HuffPo]. “The online system that distributes federal money to Head Start programs is warning providers of upcoming delays, apparently because of the Trump administration’s sweeping review of federal spending. A message about the possible delays appeared this morning, as Head Start providers were logging on to file for their next distributions. HuffPost obtained a screenshot from an official at an early childhood advocacy organization; an official at a second advocacy group then confirmed hearing it about it from providers. The message says that “Due to Executive Orders regarding potentially unallowable grant payments, PMS [the payment system] is taking additional measures to process payments. Reviews of applicable programs and payments will result in delays and/or rejections of payments.’ It’s not clear whether the message appeared for all providers nationwide, or just some.”

“Trump Ousts Top Labor Board Leaders Who Backed Broader Worker Rights” [Bloomberg]. “Donald Trump is forcing out top leaders of the US labor board, ushering in a swift reboot of workplace law enforcement while testing the limits of presidential authority. Jennifer Abruzzo, the general counsel of the National Labor Relations Board, said she was fired via email late on Monday. Gwynne Wilcox, who was one of the labor board’s two Democratic members, said she was ousted, too. ‘As the first Black woman board member, I brought a unique perspective [good riddance, because what is needed is a universal perspective across the entire working class, which by definition is not unique] that I believe will be lost upon my unprecedented and illegal removal,’ Wilcox said in a statement. ‘I will be pursuing all legal avenues to challenge my removal, which violates long-standing Supreme Court precedent.’” Nice to see that the Democrats have some sort of SWAT Team to rush to her defense. Oh, wait…. More: “Firing Wilcox was less expected, particularly given that there were already enough vacant seats on the board for Trump to install a Republican majority in the coming months.” Remember when the Democrats butchered getting another Democrat on the Board? Why, that was weeks ago! Anyhow, firing Wilcox is illegal why–

“Trump fires US labor board member, hobbling agency amid legal battles” [Reuters]. “Gwynne Wilcox, who was appointed to the board by Democratic former President Joe Biden, in a statement called her firing late Monday illegal and said she would pursue “all legal avenues” to challenge it…. Once board members are confirmed, federal law allows them to be removed only for ‘neglect of duty or malfeasance in office.’… The five-member board already had two vacancies, so the removal of Wilcox leaves the agency without a quorum to issue decisions even in routine cases accusing companies or unions of violating federal labor law. Hundreds of cases are pending before the board, including ones involving Amazon.com, Tesla, Walmart, Apple, and dozens against Starbucks as it faces a nationwide union campaign.” • So, no basis for the firing, so far as I can tell. No doubt one can be invented!

Democrats en déshabillé

“Confirmed: Unions Squandered the Biden Years” [Hamilton Nolan, How Things Work]. “n constant fear of being crushed by hostile Republican laws, unions have poured billions of dollars into, mostly, getting Democrats elected at the national level. And Joe Biden was as good as this game has ever gotten for them. We just lived through four years of the fruits of this approach. It is not theoretical. We can now evaluate it on its merits…. The real question is: Has achieving electoral political power translated into the growth of union power?… Today, we can definitively say the answer is ‘no.’… In 2024, union density in America fell to 9.9% of the work force. In 1983, union density was 20.1%, meaning that organized labor is now less than half as powerful as it was during the Reagan presidency…. In 2020, union density was 10.8%. That means that over the course of the most pro-union presidency in my lifetime, not only did union density not rise—it declined into single digits. We are losing…. [Organizing] is the responsibility of existing unions and the broader labor movement. That means that unions must spend every dollar they possibly can on new organizing. They have not done this. They did not do it, during the course of the Biden administration. They still are not doing it. As a result—by the standard of ‘increasing the power of organized labor in the work force’—the Biden administration was squandered by organized labor.” • Yep.

“Amy Walter: You’re Not Hearing A Unified Outcry Among Democrats About Deportations In Major Cities” [Amy Walter, RealClearPolitics]. “I think the most important thing for Democrats to realize, though, is they’re in the minority. When you’re out of power, you are out of power. And the reality is they now can really just simply react to what is happening based on what Republicans are doing. And their strategy going forward in many ways is going to be a reaction to what the Republican Party did. Four years from now or three years from now or a year from now when the presidential race really begins, that’s when the Democratic messaging really begins. Who do Democrats want to be? What do they want their message to be? We don’t have an opposition party leader in this country like they do in so many other countries. It’s really the nominee of the party who becomes that messenger. And that is going to be a long time from now.” • Another way of saying this is that right now there’s an enormous power vacuum in the Democrat Party. And (a) nobody is stepping in to fill it, perhaps because (b) they would have to bypass the tired and corrupt Democrat apparatus to do it, and in any case (c) the only way forward for the Democrat Party is to abandon or at least put in its place its current base in the PMC, which lacks and has lacked the power to win elections on any principled basis, let alone govern (as Stoller keeps complaining, corrrectly). Three tall orders!

“Democrats’ playbook for Trump 2.0: Tune out the noise and focus on economic issues” [NBC]. By all means focus on “economic issues” as opposed to class power for workers. You’re liberals! “Less than 48 hours after President Donald Trump was inaugurated, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries held a closed-door meeting with Democratic lawmakers to issue a warning and a clarion call. The new administration was going to “flood the zone,” and Democrats couldn’t afford to chase every single outrage — or nothing was going to sink in for the American people, Jeffries told them, according to a person in the room who requested anonymity to discuss the private meeting. Jeffries, D-N.Y., urged members to focus their message on the cost of living, along with border security and community safety. ‘The House Republican Contract Against America is an extreme plan that will not lower costs for everyday Americans,” Jeffries told reporters the next day, referring to the GOP agenda and spending cuts it is weighing. “It will make our country more expensive.”” • Holy Lord, “Contract Against America.” Jeffries keeps his lamp trimmed and burning for Gingrich. Clue stick: Donald Trump is not Newt Gingrich.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, thump, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Lambert here: Everything’s gone dark except for trusty New York State hospitalization (daily), Walgreen’s positivity (weekly), and the Cleveland Clinic? Readers, do you have any suggestions about alternatives at state level? Thank you! How I wish we had Biobot back….

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts