The pursuit of a place at this year’s spectacle has been the opposite, a seven-month sprint compressed by a format change and the coronavirus pandemic, culminating with three matches over seven days in three countries.
By the end of it — after games in Mexico City on Thursday; Orlando on Sunday; and San Jose, Costa Rica, on Wednesday — the U.S. men’s national soccer team will have exorcised the ghosts of the 2018 qualifying catastrophe, fallen deeper into despair or moved into a summer playoff for one of the last of 32 golden tickets to Qatar in November.
“We have to qualify. There’s just no other option,” midfielder Tyler Adams said. “We’re doing it for all the U.S. fans, and we don’t want to let down our nation.”
The Americans (21 points) sit second in an eight-team group offering three automatic berths, but with five teams still in contention, they need at least three additional points.
The most important match is not Thursday against archrival Mexico (21 points) at Estadio Azteca but Sunday’s home matchup with fourth-place Panama (17). A victory against Los Canaleros would assure a top-four finish. Coupled with a point against third-place Mexico or fifth-place Costa Rica (16 points), the United States would advance.
There are other pathways to an automatic berth, most notably a victory combined with Costa Rica failing to beat first-place Canada (25 points) on Thursday or sixth-place El Salvador (nine) on Sunday.
There is also the safety net of a one-game playoff for the fourth-place finisher against the Oceania champion (probably New Zealand) in June in Qatar.
“Whatever we are predicting is going to happen in this window, throw it out because something else will happen,” U.S. Coach Gregg Berhalter said. “Trust me. That’s how this whole thing has been going.”
Canada has been the biggest surprise, going undefeated to move to the cusp of its first berth since 1986. Honduras, which qualified in 2014 and finished fourth last time, is winless.
The favorites, Mexico and the United States, are right about where they expected. Both have 6-2-3 records, but the Americans are ahead on the first tiebreaker (goal differential).
Of the five contenders, however, the United States has the most difficult remaining schedule: All three matches are against teams still in the mix, and only one is at home. Thursday brings Mexico’s last difficult game. Panama and Costa Rica have two home dates apiece.
“We feel very confident we will qualify, but it’s not just about qualifying,” said winger Paul Arriola, one of the holdovers from the 2018 cycle. “It’s about winning games, changing the way people see the U.S. … Hopefully we have all learned from the past that we need to be better.”
Adams, who was 18 at the time and watched that 2-1 defeat on TV, said the current effort has him thinking about “the responsibility that I have and the responsibility I [put] on some of my teammates that we have to qualify.”
He added: “Qualifying is the absolute minimum. We have to do that to continue to move the program forward, to give our players the best opportunity to develop and get that international exposure and grow the game in the U.S.”
For the last three matches, the Americans will be without five injured regulars: goalkeeper Matt Turner, defenders Chris Richards and Sergiño Dest, midfielder Weston McKennie and forward Brenden Aaronson. Dest and Aaronson got hurt in the past week.
They’ll welcome back Gio Reyna, the 19-year-old attacker who had been sidelined for qualifiers since September. They will also lean on star forward Christian Pulisic, who, amid inconsistent playing time with European champion Chelsea, is in fine form at the moment.
Although he logged 90 minutes for Bundesliga club Borussia Dortmund last weekend, Reyna said he is not 100 percent fit. His minutes will be carefully managed so he is able to play in multiple qualifiers.
Despite the heavy schedule, Berhalter said he expects some players to start all three games and he’ll rotate others. Suspension is also a concern: Five players, including Adams and first-choice goalkeeper Zack Steffen, are carrying yellow cards and, with another, they would have to sit out a game.
The importance of the home date with Panama is heightened by the fact the Americans have never won a qualifier in Mexico or Costa Rica. While they’ve earned three draws in the past six qualifiers in Mexico City, they’ve lost nine straight in Costa Rica.
The United States, though, is on a good run against Mexico, winning all three meetings in 2021: in the Concacaf Nations League and Gold Cup finals (in Denver and Las Vegas, respectively) and a World Cup qualifier in Cincinnati.
Despite high stakes over the next week, center back Walker Zimmerman said the group is calm.
“I don’t think it’s nervousness — it’s excitement,” he said. “At this level, you want to have that responsibility and recognize the importance of it and embrace it. We have that kind of DNA with our players. We’re ready to get going.”